ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ian2401]

This has to be a hurricane at the next NHC update doesn't it? It might already be there.

recon finding nothing to support this

[cheezyWXguy]

I think it’s stunting it for now. I love Dylan and 57 so it’s okay for them to see it different. I think it shows up good on Longwave IR. But tomorrow is intensification day so I think this is no harm no foul as far as part of the organizing process.

Agreed, there’s more than likely some dry air wrapping into the circulation, otherwise it probably would be go time with those convective bursts that fired off an hour ago. It’s also clear from the persistent northern band that can’t wrap around past the southwest side. Not a sign of a weakening storm, and recon has shown that the pressure has continued to drop since this morning. Just not a storm that’s entering RI… yet.

[psyclone]

Dry air is clearly keeping things in check now...but should that abate at some point..the structure is there to bulk up quickly.

[3090]

Dry air is clearly keeping things in check now...but should that abate at some point..the structure is there to bulk up quickly.

Lots of moisture out ahead. Those huge mass of tstorms to its north will feed into soon then boom.

[Blinhart]

Dry air is clearly keeping things in check now...but should that abate at some point..the structure is there to bulk up quickly.

I really expect this storm to start ramping up when She gets away from the Coastline a little bit more and starts making the NNE run.

[wxman57]

This has to be a hurricane at the next NHC update doesn't it? It might already be there.

Recon has not found any wind stronger than 45 kts. It's weaker than this afternoon. Correction, second plane found about 50 kts in convection along the MX coast.

[Hurrilurker]

This has to be a hurricane at the next NHC update doesn't it? It might already be there.

Recon has not found any wind stronger than 45 kts. It's weaker than this afternoon.

OK I didn't see the latest recon yet. That's crazy, has to be the best 45 kt presentation I've ever seen.

[wxman57]

Francine is enjoying an evening meal of dry air. It's wrapped almost all around the core. That'll slow any strengthening. Looks like an eye was starting to form this afternoon, not now.

https://wxman57.com/images/DryAir.JPG

[Teban54]

Francine is enjoying an evening meal of dry air. It's wrapped almost all around the core. That'll slow any strengthening. Looks like an eye was starting to form this afternoon, not now.

https://wxman57.com/images/DryAir.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/DryAir.JPG

This VDM was from 2 hours ago, but still shows a ragged eyewall that's open NE.

021
URNT12 KNHC 100111 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062024
A. 09/23:52:10Z
B. 23.91 deg N 096.05 deg W
C. 850 mb 1362 m
D. 993 mb
E. 030 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN NE
G. E36/36/24
H. 43 kt
I. 014 deg 8 nm 00:00:00Z
J. 008 deg 44 kt
K. 008 deg 17 nm 23:52:00Z
L. 45 kt
M. 127 deg 16 nm 00:01:30Z
N. 224 deg 44 kt
O. 127 deg 16 nm 00:01:30Z
P. 20 C / 1526 m
Q. 22 C / 1526 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 0606A FRANCINE OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 44 KT 008 / 17 NM 23:41:30Z
RAGGED EYEWALL
;

[LARanger]

This has to be a hurricane at the next NHC update doesn't it? It might already be there.

A hurricane before midnight was the assumption of some NHC folk, per reports from earlier, but I'm not sure the dry air WxMan notes was then known.

[Sciencerocks]

[Frank P]

Dry air eating the core like a Pac Man...

[hurricanehunter69]

We all know a healthy Hurricane/environment when we see one. Personally, I'm definitely getting Michael vibes with this one!

[PavelGaborik10]

https://i.imgur.com/NxI3EWY.gif

Not the prettiest system right now

[NDG]

One thing for sure is that the Recons show that Francine has a fairly tight core despite the lack of deep convection near its CoC, as long as it maintains this fairly tight core it still has a good chance for RI.
IMO.

[Teban54]

Some new convective bursts around the eyewall, especially to the SW. As a result, the eye is easily visible on IR again.

NOAA plane just found 57 kt FL in the NE quad.

Edit: There are now -80C pixels in the SW eyewall's convective bursts just after this post.

[NDG]

This has to be a hurricane at the next NHC update doesn't it? It might already be there.

Recon has not found any wind stronger than 45 kts. It's weaker than this afternoon. Correction, second plane found about 50 kts in convection along the MX coast.

57 knots in the eastern quadrant just found by NOAA recon.

014800 2409N 09543W 6963 03125 9960 +134 +065 186055 057 /// /// 03

[MONTEGUT_LA]

On my way now to pick up more supplies and then we going to head to Thibodaux to my son's house. We had minor flooding for ida, but she hit more to the east of us. I never trust the leeves lol

I am in Thibodaux. Just can’t believe here we go again

The track may well end up right over your area or just west. Prepare for extended power outages starting Wed PM.

have to work in houma, but i dropped off my son and our important stuff to my oldest son's house in Thibodaux with our generator as well. We sandbagged around the house and now, we wait!

I'll try to keep everyone updated on conditions as long as i got cell service and as long as my phone is charged.

[NDG]

Some new convective bursts around the eyewall, especially to the SW. As a result, the eye is easily visible on IR again.

NOAA plane just found 57 kt FL in the NE quad.

https://i.postimg.cc/t4qhHPDp/goes16-ir-meso1.gif

And may I add that was 57 knots very close to the LLC, no where near the deep convection well NE of it.

[TomballEd]

I like the ADT better when it is based on eye temp and temp of clouds in the eyewall, but, FWIW, close to recon.

Models support a run at Cat 3 before weakening commences as it approaches the coast (down to a 2, some of the hurricane models a Cat 1). I'm not getting any kind of Cat 5 Michael vibe. Michael was already a hurricane when entering the Gulf, and passed over very high TCHP. A slow moving (for now) storm over shallow shelf waters, no matter how warm, with dry air nearby, just isn't making it to Cat 5.

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 SEP 2024 Time : 014020 UTC
Lat : 24:25:36 N Lon : 96:16:11 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 988.5mb/ 53.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 3.1 3.2

Center Temp : -2.7C Cloud Region Temp : -44.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in MD GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF