ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

The eye, which continues to look better in recent frames, is now mostly north of the straight line between the 2pm update location and the 8pm forecast location. The 2pm one was already north of the 11am forecast that gave the 8pm point.



Also, I know storms don't always travel in a straight line, but here's quick extrapolation of recent recon fixes. Red line extends from 932 to the most recent (949), green from 937, and blue from 944.

[TomballEd]

I recommend watching Ryan hall on TV while being on the internet. The tornado aspect of this storm is greater than I would have thought based on SPC outlooks yesterday. They were on it early today with ENH and hatched SigTor.

Orlando area now has warnings.

[Frank P]

Looks like its heading right towards Tampa Bay per the latest radar... or at least going to get a good piece of it..

[TomballEd]

Pro Met on another forum is concerned shear may drag Milton further N than forecast. Lower part of storm following mid level is definitely a thing. For the sake of Tampa Bay, hoping not.

[ConvergenceZone]

I recommend watching Ryan hall on TV while being on the internet. The tornado aspect of this storm is greater than I would have thought based on SPC outlooks yesterday. They were on it early today with ENH and hatched SigTor.

Orlando area now has warnings.

Ryan is fantastic when it comes to Tornadoes. I watch him alot during severe season. His knowledge and accuracy on hurricanes is really bad though, but when it comes to tornadoes, he's one of the best.

[Aggiemon96]

All 25 Waffle Houses in Tampa have closed.

You know things done got serious.

[ElectricStorm]

Winds way down in NE quad this pass. 94kt FL/85kt SFMR, extrap 946.7

[chaser1]

Man, what a huge relief the way this thing has fallen apart today.

I agree that calling it a cat 3 at 4PM advisory will likely be generous.

No I'm not sounding the all clear, yes I know there will still be suffering, and that sucks. I'm not remotely saying its gonna be a non-event - but we all know a Cat2 is going to be far, far less damaging than what it looked like it was going to be at this time yesterday.

At this point, with the surge and tornado damage, how much will it really matter? The damage will be more than we can imagine. I can only think that if it was my house that got swept away or destroyed by surge, it wouldn't be any better that the winds didn't come and blow the pieces around that the surge left behind. Either way I'd lose everything.

Well it does matter to me and about 2.5 million neighbors of mine that have zero risk of our houses lost to storm surge, and miraculously have not been hit by the many tornadoes. Reason being that each person has their own particular possessions, cars, homes, and family and I won't fault them for feeling a sense of relief if the risk of severe wind damage becomes less foreboding or a threat.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING...
...MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA...

Heavy rainfall with tropical-storm force winds are spreading inland
across the Florida peninsula. A recent wind gust of 68 mph (109
km/h) was recorded at a mesonet site located in Fort Myers Beach.

There are also multiple tornado warnings in effect across the
Florida peninsula. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, be
ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an
interior room not prone to flooding.

The next update will be with the full advisory package at 500 PM EDT
(2100 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano

[onadraw]

Looks like it's coming ashore sooner than anyone thought. Is this still going to turn East? Worried up north.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The risk of higher surge to Tampa bay appears to be increasing with these northern wobbles. I think shear is forcing the storm north, which may have been why the HAFS-A/B were so far north.

Milton appears to be trying to aim more for entering Tampa Bay around Egmont Key. I'm sorry, and I don't mean to stress out people who are trying to look for good news out of this weakening trend, but that's just what I'm seeing. It's still not the worst case scenario of just north of Tampa Bay, but it is not going in the right direction either.

True to StormPryer's point it is a better situation to be dealing with a Category 2 than a Category 4, but look at what Rita did with comparable surge levels. This storm was a Category 5 just this morning, that surge threat doesn't just go away with the category. The wind threat was always secondary.

I grew up around Tampa Bay and I went to school at USF for five years. I hope this wobbles back. I don't want this surge on anyone if possible, but not here.

[grapealcoholic]

Looks to be slowing down a little. Heading directly for Tampa Bay.

Perhaps 6 hours left to reintensify a little.

[Travorum]

I recommend watching Ryan hall on TV while being on the internet. The tornado aspect of this storm is greater than I would have thought based on SPC outlooks yesterday. They were on it early today with ENH and hatched SigTor.

Orlando area now has warnings.

Although I can't stand Ryan Hall and Max Velocities' actual youtube videos (way to clickbaity) their severe weather livestreams are top notch, both can keep on top of messaging about multiple tornadoes at a time and often identify velocity couplets before they even get tagged as warnings. I would agree with Convergence though that both are lacking in their knowledge and messaging about hurricanes though.

[sponger]

I am going to go with Euro and Icon into Tampa Bay. What would the surge look like if that verified? Still better than just North but that still has not been determined.

[NDG]

Latest fix, extrap pressure stopped rising, is now holding on to current strength.

95300 2645N 08336W 6969 02719 9467 +1

[CronkPSU]

up to 17 mph!? it is making a beeline to Raymond James Stadium...I can't usually get there that quick from St Pete before a Bucs game

[longhorn2004]

A warm boundary line is setting up over Orlando that is stabilizing the atmosphere. No new tornado warnings at present.

[wxman57]

Looks to be slowing down a little. Heading directly for Tampa Bay.

Perhaps 6 hours left to reintensify a little.

I think landfall in closer to 3 hrs. It's doing the opposite of intensifying now. Plane found only 85 ks (100 mph) in NE quadrant. Wind field is larger. Not an optimal angle for max surge into Tampa Bay. Wind remains out of the NE in Tampa Bay. That's good. The number of tornadoes was a surprise today. I'm liking the long-range models better now, showing a fairly strong cold front making it all the way to the NW Caribbean by late next week.

[Poonwalker]

Pro Met on another forum is concerned shear may drag Milton further N than forecast. Lower part of storm following mid level is definitely a thing. For the sake of Tampa Bay, hoping not.

and I thought shear was our friend

[grapealcoholic]

Heading almost due north last few frames