ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

Man, what a huge relief the way this thing has fallen apart today.

I agree that calling it a cat 3 at 4PM advisory will likely be generous.

No I'm not sounding the all clear, yes I know there will still be suffering, and that sucks. I'm not remotely saying its gonna be a non-event - but we all know a Cat2 is going to be far, far less damaging than what it looked like it was going to be at this time yesterday.

[Travorum]

1 hour old:

[SouthFLTropics]

Tornado alerts back to back to back keep coming in for us here in Port St. Lucie. These feeder bands mean business.

[bythetrack]

Latest zoomed in radar loop. If Milton doesn't slow down soon the Global models especially ICON and latest Euro are going to be correct of landfall north of Sarasota close to Tampa Bay if not on Tampa Bay.

https://i.imgur.com/fKxtt9K.gif

Super cells in that band moving on the coast. Gotta be a ton more warnings.

Two hours of straight supercell tornado warnings in Sebring , back to back to back. Thats a first. 5.5 inches of rain. Next.

[kassi]

All 25 Waffle Houses in Tampa have closed.

[ConvergenceZone]

Man, what a huge relief the way this thing has fallen apart today.

I agree that calling it a cat 3 at 4PM advisory will likely be generous.

No I'm not sounding the all clear, yes I know there will still be suffering, and that sucks. I'm not remotely saying its gonna be a non-event - but we all know a Cat2 is going to be far, far less damaging than what it looked like it was going to be at this time yesterday.

Yep, people may think we are downplaying it, but we are not. Remember yesterday we didn't know 100% how it was going to behave with the strong shear. Well, now we know it doesn't like the shear. Probably has to do with the smaller size. And I'm incredibly grateful that it's weakening a bit more than anticipated. A Cat 2 would still be much better than a Cat 4, which many were worried about yesterday. But yea looks like Tornadoes and surge around the impact area will still be very bad.

[NDG]

If Milton doesn't start slowing down significantly now landfall will be in just 4 hours at the most.
Center is just 70 miles offshore.

[otowntiger]

https://i.postimg.cc/dtqy19ct/download.png

Whatever complaints folks have about Milton being unpredictable in intensity, the NHC killed it with advisory #1 four days ago. When I was first tracking storms as a kid in the 90s this accuracy was unfathomable.

agreed! I was just thinking about that advisory posted at 11:00 on Saturday morning. They were even showing a cat 2 then. Admittedly they didn’t predict what happened between then and now but thankfully no one is seeing a cat 5

[InfernoFlameCat]

The eye on radar is rapidly improving. It seems the storm may be tryin to re-intensify. If current trends continue, we will see a major hurricane landfall.

[mpic]

Man, what a huge relief the way this thing has fallen apart today.

I agree that calling it a cat 3 at 4PM advisory will likely be generous.

No I'm not sounding the all clear, yes I know there will still be suffering, and that sucks. I'm not remotely saying its gonna be a non-event - but we all know a Cat2 is going to be far, far less damaging than what it looked like it was going to be at this time yesterday.

At this point, with the surge and tornado damage, how much will it really matter? The damage will be more than we can imagine. I can only think that if it was my house that got swept away or destroyed by surge, it wouldn't be any better that the winds didn't come and blow the pieces around that the surge left behind. Either way I'd lose everything.

[Sciencerocks]

[emeraldislenc]

I would never give an all clear have not experienced storm surge yet!

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Water level stations in Fort Myers and Naples starting to rise fast. Tampa, being on the left side of the storm, not rising much at all yet.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... ame=Milton

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Definitely getting a deluge here in Clearwater as an outer band passes through. Steady winds seem to be in the 20's with higher gusts in the 40's is my guess. Looks like its setting up to give us another really strong band. It is falling apart quickly though, so hopefully even if it hits further north around the bay, it is not going to be the nightmare scenario of a Cat4 on my doorstep and the associated winds.
Kinda surprised we still have electric and cable/wifi after some potent gusts and the steady winds now.

[StormPyrate]

Man, what a huge relief the way this thing has fallen apart today.

I agree that calling it a cat 3 at 4PM advisory will likely be generous.

No I'm not sounding the all clear, yes I know there will still be suffering, and that sucks. I'm not remotely saying its gonna be a non-event - but we all know a Cat2 is going to be far, far less damaging than what it looked like it was going to be at this time yesterday.

At this point, with the surge and tornado damage, how much will it really matter? The damage will be more than we can imagine. I can only think that if it was my house that got swept away or destroyed by surge, it wouldn't be any better that the winds didn't come and blow the pieces around that the surge left behind. Either way I'd lose everything.

It Matters

[galaxy401]

Looks like landfall might only be 6 hours away at this rate. Closer to the coast then I thought.

[CronkPSU]

Water level stations in Fort Myers and Naples starting to rise fast. Tampa, being on the left side of the storm, not rising much at all yet.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... ame=Milton

Won’t see that til later as the storm is approaching, it has already passed both of those cities

[ConvergenceZone]

If Milton doesn't start slowing down significantly now landfall will be in just 4 hours at the most.
Center is just 70 miles offshore.

yea, landfall is looking like this evening now compared to Thursday Morning like it looked yesterday. That makes me happy though, I don't have to pull an all-nighter in order to catch the landfall footage.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Milton continues to be north of the forecast points, not by much only about 15 miles, but it’s there. Also might be coming in faster than expected.

[Steve H.]

Milton is firing a big hot tower on the north side of the center.