ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Xyls
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4721 Postby Xyls » Wed Oct 09, 2024 1:49 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:They keep talking on the weather channel about landfall very late tonight, but looking at radar, it sure looks like it's going to come in sooner then that.


Agreed, I think this thing is coming in faster than expected.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4722 Postby Xyls » Wed Oct 09, 2024 1:55 pm

Storm chasers reporting a possible wedge tornado near Yeehaw Junction per Ryan Hall's stream.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4723 Postby jhpigott » Wed Oct 09, 2024 1:58 pm

Getting tropical storm force gusts. PBI reporting 25mph, gusting to 39
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4724 Postby Hurrilurker » Wed Oct 09, 2024 1:59 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:They keep talking on the weather channel about landfall very late tonight, but looking at radar, it sure looks like it's going to come in sooner then that.

I know, I finally got time to check on it and I was like "Whoa, it's already RIGHT THERE! How did that happen?"
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4725 Postby Beef Stew » Wed Oct 09, 2024 1:59 pm

One of the biggest stories to come from Milton may end up being the tornado outbreak it's spawning... these are very powerful tornados... especially by Florida standards...
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4726 Postby Stormlover70 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:01 pm

76 tornado warnings so far. God help us. We need prayers.....
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4727 Postby TampaWxLurker » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:02 pm

Heading 35° at the 3pm update vs 30° at 2pm. Still 16mph movement. Pressure up to 948mb vs 944mb.
Last edited by TampaWxLurker on Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4728 Postby Seele » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:02 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:They keep talking on the weather channel about landfall very late tonight, but looking at radar, it sure looks like it's going to come in sooner then that.


It's supposed to slow down some as it interacts with a trough which should direct it more ENE.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4729 Postby Nimbus » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:05 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I didn't realize it had already dropped to 130 mph. Since a cat 2 is only 20 mph lower, I think it should be able to easily get down to that by landfall. Cat 2 is probably as low as it can go though. Obviously still dangerous, but we also have to look for anything encouraging when it comes to these storms.


I don't know how much any of that is going to matter with the amount of tornadoes we’re seeing. The surge will still be immense too. This is one awful storm.


For the Tampa bay surge and surface winds I'm monitoring this buoy that is still operational.
Shouldn't get as much surge in Tampa bay with the winds coming out of the east less than 90 degrees.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=mtbf1
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4730 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:05 pm

Heading between the last 2 Recon fixes shows a heading of 39 deg, took a jog more NNE than true NE.
But it looks like it picked up speed again, back to 18-20 mph. Not good!
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4731 Postby TampaWxLurker » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:05 pm

Seele wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:They keep talking on the weather channel about landfall very late tonight, but looking at radar, it sure looks like it's going to come in sooner then that.


It's supposed to slow down some as it interacts with a trough which should direct it more ENE.



A change in direction like that is usually preceded by a slowdown in forward speed, also.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4732 Postby mpic » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:06 pm

Friends in Ft. Myers. Anybody know off-hand which chaser will be there?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4733 Postby Woofde » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:07 pm

This storm is going to come in as a very dangerous mess. It's definitely still weakening which is good, but I doubt it helps much with the surge, we shall see. The downside of the big Jet interaction is the tornadoes unfortunately.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4734 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:08 pm

TampaWxLurker wrote:Heading 35° at the 3pm update vs 30° at 2pm. Still 16mph movement. Pressure up to 948mb vs 944mb.


NHC in their 2 pm update said they expect Milton to slow down as it approaches the coast.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4735 Postby kevin » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:08 pm

FL winds up to 114 kt, translates to 100 - 105 kt at the surface. I expect NHC will go with 105 - 110 kt so the public doesn't let their guard down. Same FL measurements (around 115 kt) as two hours ago though so winds don't seem to be coming down much anymore.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4736 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:09 pm

Prayers for Florida. Here for you guys.
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Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4737 Postby skillz305 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:10 pm

Guys…I’m in Vero. This little band is coming in with LOTS of Thunder. Could have sworn I heard as if it were an airplane coming but cannot verify anything about any tornado activity. It is almost scarier than the hurricane itself with this tornado outbreak then getting a tornado warning then hearing really loud distant thunder because I am safe at this moment - no evidence of a tornado.
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:flag:Hurricanes: Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Katrina 2005 - Wilma 2005 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4738 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:10 pm

114 knt flight level/87 knt smrf in northeast quad.

114 knt = 102.5 knts

I'd go probably 95 knts considering that it isn't mixing down.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4739 Postby TomballEd » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:11 pm

It is going to need more than just a small left jog to get to Tampa Bay, which is good for them. But it looks too close for comfort. A center just missing would still have hours of generally Sly flow which will push water into Tampa Bay, if I had to guess, before the offshore flow as the system passes pushes the surge back out.

I suspect enough surge the Helene debris will be awash.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4740 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 09, 2024 2:11 pm

18z TVCN is now north of Sarasota, never late than never.
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