ATL: MILTON - Models

[Recurve]

So south shift is coming. I fully expected this, it's going to be hard to ever sell people in Tampa about a hurricane after this one heh

Too soon to say. Tampa/St. Pete can get bad flooding even with a southern track, IMO.


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[boca]

That was some shift..

https://i.postimg.cc/c4kNtsx3/hhh.jpg

The Icon shifted back north so the south shift might go back north at 5pm update.

[HurricaneBelle]

That was some shift..

https://i.postimg.cc/c4kNtsx3/hhh.jpg

The Icon shifted back north so the south shift might go back north at 5pm update.

One model is hardly a trend. And as others have noted ICON has it stronger this time which brings it farther north, so it was likely artificially too south in the first place. It's now in consensus with the southern-shifted NHC track.

[SFLcane]

That was some shift..

https://i.postimg.cc/c4kNtsx3/hhh.jpg

The Icon shifted back north so the south shift might go back north at 5pm update.

lol icon is not something the nhc basis the forecast track on.

[Steve]

Trust in the ICON just got real, will it be correct again with sniffing out the east/south shift early?

Do you trust the Euro jump north and stop solution?
https://i.imgur.com/FpLYKKi.gif

Or the ICON; stay well south but also weaker solution?
https://i.imgur.com/mLirR6a.gif

You spoke too soon before its 12z run.
ICON has been fairly inconsistent with Milton so far, IMO.

It’s not that different of a landfall position from 00z and 06 in the grand scheme. Of course it matters to people in sw fl and it matters that there are differences in intensity with landfall position. So I think those differences magnify what otherwise could seem insignificant. Obviously population has exploded down there the last couple of decades. Upper setup is similar last 3 runs. Only thing moderately different is the trough in eastern Canada is very slightly more north in the 12z run.

[Fancy1002]

So far the GFS is slower and stronger.

Also a decent bit south.

[Steve]

So far the GFS is slower and stronger.

955 in 51 hours. Cat 3 pressure and building.

954 at 57 hours
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

957 at 60 hours so pressure not falling at that point.

Back down to 954 at 63 hours.

[TampaWxLurker]

So far the GFS is slower and stronger.

Also a decent bit south.

Yup. Almost brushes the northwest Yucatan.

[tolakram]

[blp]

Big shift south through 42hrs.

[Steve]

Down to 949 at 69 hours

[Travorum]

Down to 949 at 69 hours

Looks like a fair bit bigger wind field as well

[tolakram]

[REDHurricane]

06z hurricane models:

HAFS-A (peak): 905mb/160kt @09z Wed 10/9
HAFS-B (peak): 899mb/160kt @00z Wed 10/9
HWRF (peak): 928mb/125kt @21z Tues 10/8
HMON (peak): 929mb/120kt @06z Wed 10/9

HAFS-A (landfall): 962mb/70kt @06z Thurs 10/10 ---> landfall near Palm Harbor
HAFS-B (landfall): ~955mb/~80kt @02z Thurs 10/10 ---> landfall near Clearwater
HWRF (landfall): 951mb/85kt @18z Thurs 10/10 ---> landfall in/near southern Tampa Bay
HMON (landfall): ~973mb/~70kt @18z Thurs 10/10 ---> landfall near Homosassa

[Travorum]

12z GFS has landfall at 00z Thursday around Crystal River:

[tolakram]

[NDG]

12z GFS north of Tampa.

[TampaWxLurker]

Windshield wiper in effect for the models.

[tolakram]

Modelling has been excellent for this storm /sarcasm. This is where the NHC tendency to slowly move their track is a good thing.

[AutoPenalti]

Models struggling with the flow.