ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

This is a well organized storm traversing water similar to what Otis took advantage of last fall. While we can hope for dry air or sheer...we should also not discount the potential of rapid intensification which yields a storm stronger than forecast.

No RI yet but the slowdown in forward motion scares the happy hour mood out of me.

[Steve]

He’s a good poster though. I don’t wonder if it tracks more NE if the wrap around shear off Texas doesn’t have the effect it would were it heading to lake Charles.

[Owasso]

Dropsonde

[ColdMiser123]

Extrap 991-992 mb with AF302. Extrap 988 mb with the NOAA3 plane. NOAA planes tend to run a bit low with extrap pressure.

Reminds me strongly of the barebones structure that Ian initially had with pressure around 990 mb.

Note also that the RMW is small, and relatively symmetrical among all quadrants sampled so far, which is favorable for a more steep pace of intensification down the road.

[jasons2k]

This is a well organized storm traversing water similar to what Otis took advantage of last fall. While we can hope for dry air or sheer...we should also not discount the potential of rapid intensification which yields a storm stronger than forecast.

No RI yet but the slowdown in forward motion scares the happy hour mood out of me.

Remember, slowdowns are common before a change in direction…

[Craters]

991mb

Moving much slower too, still south of 24N.

I'm wondering if the slowdown might be the start of the turn toward the N/NNE...

[ColdMiser123]

Dropsonde

https://i.postimg.cc/Sxt2YBMh/image.png

Supports 992 mb - for reference, when Ian had this similar barebones, but still organized structure, the pressure from the first dropsonde was 991 mb.

[NDG]

Extrap 991-992 mb with AF302. Extrap 988 mb with the NOAA3 plane. NOAA planes tend to run a bit low with extrap pressure.

Reminds me strongly of the barebones structure that Ian initially had with pressure around 990 mb.

Note also that the RMW is small, and relatively symmetrical among all quadrants sampled so far, which is favorable for a more steep pace of intensification down the road.

I have always noticed that for some reason NOAA extrap always run much lower than actual pressure, does it has anything to do with the higher altitude they fly in? NOAA recon is flying at h70 while the AF recon is at h850

[wxman57]

Note the dry air flowing in on the WSW side - all the way to the east side. Convection over center has really dropped off. Good sign if it can continue. Recon found only 45 kts north of and SE of the center.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Note the dry air flowing in on the WSW side - all the way to the east side. Convection over center has really dropped off. Good sign if it can continue.

Radar tells a different story IMHO.

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1833289977859289399

[wxman57]

Note the dry air flowing in on the WSW side - all the way to the east side. Convection over center has really dropped off. Good sign if it can continue.

Radar tells a different story IMHO.

https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1833289977859289399

Recon tells a better story.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Note the dry air flowing in on the WSW side - all the way to the east side. Convection over center has really dropped off. Good sign if it can continue.

Radar tells a different story IMHO.

https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1833289977859289399

Recon tells a better story.

Doesn't look like it's getting to the core that much. Still looks fairly robust to me.

[Steve]

I think it’s stunting it for now. I love Dylan and 57 so it’s okay for them to see it different. I think it shows up good on Longwave IR. But tomorrow is intensification day so I think this is no harm no foul as far as part of the organizing process.

[psyclone]

It does look like dry air has invaded as shown by the big band to the north but if anything it looks like that's wrapping efficiently down the west side...so it's trying to cocoon itself...this will be a fascinating system to watch..

[aspen]

Winds are down but so is pressure. About what I expected.

The HWRF earlier today was showing a dry, partially exposed storm overnight Monday into Tuesday, followed by convection reforming tomorrow. Let’s see how long it takes for this to mix out and how much the inner core can handle.

[WaveBreaking]

Long meso loop:

[WaveBreaking]

Long meso loop 2:

[utweather]

He’s a good poster though. I don’t wonder if it tracks more NE if the wrap around shear off Texas doesn’t have the effect it would were it heading to lake Charles.

Yes please keep posting. Its good to have differing observations especially when they go against any hype or extreme fear.

[Hurrilurker]

This has to be a hurricane at the next NHC update doesn't it? It might already be there.

[Steve]

This has to be a hurricane at the next NHC update doesn't it? It might already be there.

Recon didn’t find it that strong yet.