ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Last two recon fixes:
25.7N 84.43W
26.0N 84.3W

Equals a 21 deg Heading, NNE jog.

This is very unlikely, but if it keeps this heading it'll make landfall in Tarpon Springs.

[xironman]

EWRC not complete

G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 110kts (126.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 15:57:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 121kts (From the SSE at 139.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 15:59:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 16:08:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 309° at 84kts (From the NW at 96.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21

[Travorum]

EWRC not complete

G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 110kts (126.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 15:57:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 121kts (From the SSE at 139.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 15:59:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 16:08:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 309° at 84kts (From the NW at 96.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21

Comments from that VDM:

MAX FL WIND 121 KT 058 / 11 NM 15:59:30Z
INNER EYEWALL 70% CLOSED, OUTER 50% CLOSED

[cheezyWXguy]

Here's a 200 frame (every 30 sec) mesoscale loop from the College of DuPage. Dry air is infiltrating the west and SW side now. Structure is deteriorating. Was really hoping that recon would have a report in the NE eyewall but it skipped right past the storm. Likely a Cat 3 now and weakening. May reach Cat 2 before landfall. Dry air intrusion and increasing wind shear are your friends, Floridians. Like with Francine and Helene, it may not carry sustained hurricane force wind inland very far, but gusts may top 100 mph well inland. Heaviest squalls will be on the north side due to dry air to the south.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

the news keep getting better and better, thanks wxman! Maybe our prayers are being answered. Do you think a cat 1 is even possible at landfall due to this rapid weakening?

You seem to be selectively filtering information for only the positives and completely ignoring the negatives. If anyone in the path that isn’t diligently informed is reading this, they are going to get the wrong idea. The facts are:
- the storm has been expected to weaken on approach
- wind, while a notable threat, is not THE threat - surge is
- the storm is growing in size, which will increase the distribution of impacts, including wind and surge over a larger area

Nothing has really changed. People need to continue taking this as seriously as they have been. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Don’t tune it out because you want it to be less severe.

[Woofde]

This EWRC may have happened at the right time for Tampa and Area. This is right about the time the hurricane models showed the shear and dry air starting to break through, the EWRC would leave it much more vulnerable to disruption.

[xironman]

EWRC not complete

G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 110kts (126.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 15:57:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 121kts (From the SSE at 139.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 15:59:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 16:08:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 309° at 84kts (From the NW at 96.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21

Comments from that VDM:

MAX FL WIND 121 KT 058 / 11 NM 15:59:30Z
INNER EYEWALL 70% CLOSED, OUTER 50% CLOSED

Yup, and a 40 mile wide eyewall will spread the hurricane force winds wide.

[CronkPSU]

Watching a hurricane undergo extratropical transition in the GoM before it even hits land is quite interesting LOL. This is probably why the tornado threat from this hurricane is so intense.

There is no Extratropical transition here. Not a chance.

NHC has been talking about it happening around landfall the last two days

[Soluna16]

Watching a hurricane undergo extratropical transition in the GoM before it even hits land is quite interesting LOL. This is probably why the tornado threat from this hurricane is so intense.

There is no Extratropical transition here. Not a chance.

It's quite literally been in the NHC discussion in every forecast since yesterday.

[galaxy401]

Watching a hurricane undergo extratropical transition in the GoM before it even hits land is quite interesting LOL. This is probably why the tornado threat from this hurricane is so intense.

There is no Extratropical transition here. Not a chance.

It's quite literally been in the NHC discussion in every forecast since yesterday.

After it crosses Florida.

[kevin]

11am had Milton at 25.8N, 84.3W. Recon now found the center at 25.98N, 84.28W which means that Milton's average heading has been almost due north due last 2 hours.

[GCANE]

PDS Tornado

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1844055881652240864

[StormPyrate]

Here's a 200 frame (every 30 sec) mesoscale loop from the College of DuPage. Dry air is infiltrating the west and SW side now. Structure is deteriorating. Was really hoping that recon would have a report in the NE eyewall but it skipped right past the storm. Likely a Cat 3 now and weakening. May reach Cat 2 before landfall. Dry air intrusion and increasing wind shear are your friends, Floridians. Like with Francine and Helene, it may not carry sustained hurricane force wind inland very far, but gusts may top 100 mph well inland. Heaviest squalls will be on the north side due to dry air to the south.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

the news keep getting better and better, thanks wxman! Maybe our prayers are being answered. Do you think a cat 1 is even possible at landfall due to this rapid weakening?

You seem to be selectively filtering information for only the positives and completely ignoring the negatives. If anyone in the path that isn’t diligently informed is reading this, they are going to get the wrong idea. The facts are:
- the storm has been expected to weaken on approach
- wind, while a notable threat, is not THE threat - surge is
- the storm is growing in size, which will increase the distribution of impacts, including wind and surge over a larger area

Nothing has really changed. People need to continue taking this as seriously as they have been. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Don’t tune it out because you want it to be less severe.

Nothing has changed? Nothing? clearly things are changing, and not all for the worse or even same.

[tolakram]

Watching a hurricane undergo extratropical transition in the GoM before it even hits land is quite interesting LOL. This is probably why the tornado threat from this hurricane is so intense.

There is no Extratropical transition here. Not a chance.

NHC has been talking about it happening around landfall the last two days

Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today and this
evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since
Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected
to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The
NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models
and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely
to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the
winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move
off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On
another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front
later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to
expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely
cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where
Milton makes landfall.

Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The
track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track
forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying
near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to
where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.

We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is
not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the
hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at
12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30
nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact
track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the
Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists
across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given
the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where
landfall will occur.

Finally, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very
serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow
orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations
and other preparations should be completed over the next couple of
hours.

[bob rulz]

Anybody who thinks that a weakening to even a category 2 (already no guarantee) is "good news" should remember that Ike was a category 2. True, this isn't as big as Ike, but it's hitting a very heavily-populated area that isn't used to major hurricanes and is especially susceptible to surge.

[Nimbus]

EWRC not complete

G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 110kts (126.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 15:57:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 121kts (From the SSE at 139.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 15:59:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 16:08:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 309° at 84kts (From the NW at 96.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21

You can see the inner eyewall has been rotating around the outer eyewall on radar it can take as long as it wants as far as I'm concerned.

[StormPyrate]

Anybody who thinks that a weakening to even a category 2 (already no guarantee) is "good news" should remember that Ike was a category 2. True, this isn't as big as Ike, but it's hitting a very heavily-populated area that isn't used to major hurricanes and is especially susceptible to surge.

living in the path, yeah, I think it dropping in strength is great news

[tolakram]

Anybody who thinks that a weakening to even a category 2 (already no guarantee) is "good news" should remember that Ike was a category 2. True, this isn't as big as Ike, but it's hitting a very heavily-populated area that isn't used to major hurricanes and is especially susceptible to surge.

Yep, I was going to mention another ugly storm stuck in an ERC. There is nowhere for that water to go when it hits land and I fear we will be hearing about UNEXPECTED damage for months. I hope I'm wrong.

[TomballEd]

Seen 2 pro-mets (Levi Cowan on Monday, looking at HWRF, another pro-met on a Discord page) mention the possibility of a sting jet depending on exactly how the dry air interacts with the southern eyewall. It seemed, from my limited understanding, that there could be very strong winds mixed down near/S of landfall.

[Xyls]

Watching a hurricane undergo extratropical transition in the GoM before it even hits land is quite interesting LOL. This is probably why the tornado threat from this hurricane is so intense.

I'm not seeing anything extra tropical about this ...

My understanding of the forecast was that the front that is interacting with it is introducing an extratropical dimension. And that the system is projected to be extratropical by the time it gets to the other side of Florida. Feel free to correct my layman understanding as this is still quite a complicated setup. Because otherwise what is explaining the tornado situation we are seeing here?

[johngaltfla]

So glad to see the pronounced weakening this morning. Going with 105 to 115mph at landfall, and it has plenty of time to get down to that speed.. Just as mentioned over the last few days, shear was going to do a number on it. It's just not large enough to withstand the strong shear. Still obviously will be a very dangerous storm, but oh man, it could have been so much worse had this shear not been here.

So Mr. Milton finally meets the Jetstream sheer and dry air like I stated earlier, a lesson in physics, too much energy for it to matter much. Too bad this did not happen earlier.

The EWRC just competed and we still need some more time to assess how well Milton’s core will stay intact. I think the calls for Milton’s rapid demise from this point forward are premature.

Edit to add: I hope I’m wrong

Gulf storms close to our coast have this nasty habit of short term intensification just before landfall. I hope you're wrong also.