ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Soluna16]

Pretty good bit N of the NHC line now.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[NDG]

Based on radar I have the center of Milton near 26.03N 84.22W, almost due west of Naples FL.

Edit: It still shows me a heading of 28 deg during the past almost 5 hours.

[Abdullah]

Dropsonde in the eye reported 937 mbar with 17 knots, suggesting a true intensity of 935 mbar.

This is down from 931 mbar an hour and a half ago

Weakening of +3 mbar / hour

[ConvergenceZone]

Here's a 200 frame (every 30 sec) mesoscale loop from the College of DuPage. Dry air is infiltrating the west and SW side now. Structure is deteriorating. Was really hoping that recon would have a report in the NE eyewall but it skipped right past the storm. Likely a Cat 3 now and weakening. May reach Cat 2 before landfall. Dry air intrusion and increasing wind shear are your friends, Floridians. Like with Francine and Helene, it may not carry sustained hurricane force wind inland very far, but gusts may top 100 mph well inland. Heaviest squalls will be on the north side due to dry air to the south.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

the news keep getting better and better, thanks wxman! Maybe our prayers are being answered. Do you think a cat 1 is even possible at landfall due to this rapid weakening?

[xironman]

A bit north now

[tolakram]

longer saved loops

[longhorn2004]

This surge will be a lot bigger than Ian and places as far away as Naples still face a surge threat.

Not necessarily a larger surge. Milton is much smaller than Ian and it will likely hit as an upper-end Cat 2, maybe a weakening Cat 3. Lots of dry air entrainment now, along with increasing shear. Milton is not the same hurricane it was yesterday.

So glad to see the pronounced weakening this morning. Going with 105 to 115mph at landfall, and it has plenty of time to get down to that speed.. Just as mentioned over the last few days, shear was going to do a number on it. It's just not large enough to withstand the strong shear. Still obviously will be a very dangerous storm, but oh man, it could have been so much worse had this shear not been here.

So Mr. Milton finally meets the jet stream shear and dry air like I stated earlier, a lesson in physics, too much energy for it to matter much. Too bad this did not happen earlier.

[Snowman67]

Not necessarily a larger surge. Milton is much smaller than Ian and it will likely hit as an upper-end Cat 2, maybe a weakening Cat 3. Lots of dry air entrainment now, along with increasing shear. Milton is not the same hurricane it was yesterday.

Has your predicted landfall point changed?

We have it close to Sarasota for landfall, but I'd like to see a heading more ENE to get there. I remember working Charley in 2004. It kept bending right of the track a few hours out. Certainly wouldn't rule out a Tampa Bay hit.

If it did make a TB hit, given your predictions of an upper end Cat 2/weakening Cat 3, what are your storm surge predictions for them?

[Abdullah]

Dropsonde in the eye reported 937 mbar with 17 knots, suggesting a true intensity of 935 mbar.

This is down from 931 mbar an hour and a half ago

Weakening of +3 mbar / hour

Extrapolating this to landfall, the minimum central pressure of the storm will be 963 mbar, making it comparable to Hurricane Frances' landfall in Florida in 2004.

[curtadams]

The SW quadrant was reported to have 85 knot flight-level winds, corresponding to 80 knot surface winds. Weakening fast for sure

wow really? That is quite a bit weaker than I expected this soon. Won't be surprised if the NHC drops the windspeed lower at landfall by quite a bit on the next advisory or two.

That's the backside, which is starting to lose relative speed due to wind motion and asymmetry. By the tail radar posted above, peak winds are still above 125 knot FL. In any hurricane, the peak winds are only in a relatively small area.

[FLLurker32]

Based on radar I have the center of Milton near 26.03N 84.22W, almost due west of Naples FL.

Edit: It still shows me a heading of 28 deg during the past almost 5 hours.

I was just looking at the same. The longer it keeps this more North heading the more chance Tampa Bay has of the extreme surge potential. I’m getting nervous for the Bay Area.

[loon]

longer saved loops
https://i.imgur.com/zsECdHn.gif

https://i.imgur.com/pEitP6W.gif

Amazing to just watch it bowl through the interference and come back into shape.. never be cat 5 again but man what a strong storm. good luck Florida. here's hoping as much weakening as possible for y'all.

[NDG]

Last two recon fixes:
25.7N 84.43W
26.0N 84.3W

Equals a 21 deg Heading, NNE jog.

[Xyls]

Watching a hurricane undergo extratropical transition in the GoM before it even hits land is quite interesting LOL. This is probably why the tornado threat from this hurricane is so intense.

[jasons2k]

Not necessarily a larger surge. Milton is much smaller than Ian and it will likely hit as an upper-end Cat 2, maybe a weakening Cat 3. Lots of dry air entrainment now, along with increasing shear. Milton is not the same hurricane it was yesterday.

So glad to see the pronounced weakening this morning. Going with 105 to 115mph at landfall, and it has plenty of time to get down to that speed.. Just as mentioned over the last few days, shear was going to do a number on it. It's just not large enough to withstand the strong shear. Still obviously will be a very dangerous storm, but oh man, it could have been so much worse had this shear not been here.

So Mr. Milton finally meets the jet stream shear and dry air like I stated earlier, a lesson in physics, too much energy for it to matter much. Too bad this did not happen earlier.

The EWRC just competed and we still need some more time to assess how well Milton’s core will stay intact. I think the calls for Milton’s rapid demise from this point forward are premature.

Edit to add: I hope I’m wrong

[Powellrm]

Here's a 200 frame (every 30 sec) mesoscale loop from the College of DuPage. Dry air is infiltrating the west and SW side now. Structure is deteriorating. Was really hoping that recon would have a report in the NE eyewall but it skipped right past the storm. Likely a Cat 3 now and weakening. May reach Cat 2 before landfall. Dry air intrusion and increasing wind shear are your friends, Floridians. Like with Francine and Helene, it may not carry sustained hurricane force wind inland very far, but gusts may top 100 mph well inland. Heaviest squalls will be on the north side due to dry air to the south.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Look at all that beautiful dry air getting wrapped in there. Love to see it. Thanks for posting

[kevin]

Wind data during the eyewall passage is contaminated in the recent recon pass. Can't really say anything about peak FL winds regarding this pass.

[galaxy401]

Watching a hurricane undergo extratropical transition in the GoM before it even hits land is quite interesting LOL. This is probably why the tornado threat from this hurricane is so intense.

There is no Extratropical transition here. Not a chance.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Here's a 200 frame (every 30 sec) mesoscale loop from the College of DuPage. Dry air is infiltrating the west and SW side now. Structure is deteriorating. Was really hoping that recon would have a report in the NE eyewall but it skipped right past the storm. Likely a Cat 3 now and weakening. May reach Cat 2 before landfall. Dry air intrusion and increasing wind shear are your friends, Floridians. Like with Francine and Helene, it may not carry sustained hurricane force wind inland very far, but gusts may top 100 mph well inland. Heaviest squalls will be on the north side due to dry air to the south.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

the news keep getting better and better, thanks wxman! Maybe our prayers are being answered. Do you think a cat 1 is even possible at landfall due to this rapid weakening?

Its finishing an EWRC. Once it finishes it will weaken more slowly and the winds may briefly re-intensify. Also, baroclinic energy will ensure this remains at least a Cat 2 until landfall.

[dukeblue219]

Watching a hurricane undergo extratropical transition in the GoM before it even hits land is quite interesting LOL. This is probably why the tornado threat from this hurricane is so intense.

I'm not seeing anything extra tropical about this ...