ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1810163899653648530

[cycloneye]

There must be strong radar echoes somewhere, since the Recon data didn't quite support hurricane intensity.

Data from bouy was important for the upgrade.

NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph
(97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also
reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches).

[capNstorms]

IMO more intensification to come if it keeps wobbling NNE, What Dry Air?

[mpic]

This is going to be a massive flood event... Landfall will get brunt wind damage and massive storm surge, but the Billions in damage will be from the flooding

"Billions"? I admit that I am not at all intimately familiar with the region but assuming Beryl's track verifies and the storm does not stall out, will 4"-6" of precip over a fairly broad area actually result in BILLIONS of $$ in damage there?

I don't know about the price, but local mets have saying some places in Houston could see as much as 15". Depends on where it falls. We just came out of a very wet Spring and are 10" above normal. Some unmaintaned ditches are still holding water in Splendora directly north of Houston. They DID start releasing some water either yesterday or today...my brain is fried lol.

[Steve]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Still organizing.

[capNstorms]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Still organizing.

quite well actually, no wonder were getting higher wind gusts

[Bimms]

This is going to be a massive flood event... Landfall will get brunt wind damage and massive storm surge, but the Billions in damage will be from the flooding

"Billions"? I admit that I am not at all intimately familiar with the region but assuming Beryl's track verifies and the storm does not stall out, will 4"-6" of precip over a fairly broad area actually result in BILLIONS of $$ in damage there?

I don't know about the price, but local mets have saying some places in Houston could see as much as 15". Depends on where it falls. We just came out of a very wet Spring and are 10" above normal. Some unmaintaned ditches are still holding water in Splendora directly north of Houston. They DID start releasing some water either yesterday or today...my brain is fried lol.

With the latest track bringing the eye right over the heavily populated areas of Ft. Bend county ( think Sugarland) and Harris County ( Houston) there could be a lot of damage. And the local Mets are saying potentially 10 inches or more of rain, and if you know Houston, some parts flood with barely more than a brief rain shower.

[Woofde]

Things are picking up here in Matagorda, those outer bands were quite potent. Beryls wobbling around like crazy. NW Eyewall looks quite potent, you can see the effect of the venting clearly now.

[mpic]

"Billions"? I admit that I am not at all intimately familiar with the region but assuming Beryl's track verifies and the storm does not stall out, will 4"-6" of precip over a fairly broad area actually result in BILLIONS of $$ in damage there?

I don't know about the price, but local mets have saying some places in Houston could see as much as 15". Depends on where it falls. We just came out of a very wet Spring and are 10" above normal. Some unmaintaned ditches are still holding water in Splendora directly north of Houston. They DID start releasing some water either yesterday or today...my brain is fried lol.

With the latest track bringing the eye right over the heavily populated areas of Ft. Bend county ( think Sugarland) and Harris County ( Houston) there could be a lot of damage. And the local Mets are saying potentially 10 inches or more of rain, and if you know Houston, some parts flood with barely more than a brief rain shower.

I moved here to Splendora from Dickinson in 2017 a few months before Harvey hit. Best decision I've made in a long time. I still had a foot of water covering my property and several dogs that didn't take kindly to doing their business and swimming at the same lol.

[chaser1]

There must be strong radar echoes somewhere, since the Recon data didn't quite support hurricane intensity.

I don't particularly like their extrapolation methods especially for formative tropical cyclones (and ESPECIALLY when it relates to a GOM system). Whether an extrapolation from 700mb, or derived from radar products I rarely see actual ground measured obs that corroborate claimed max wind speeds (even simply as wind gusts).

[capNstorms]

This is going to be a massive flood event... Landfall will get brunt wind damage and massive storm surge, but the Billions in damage will be from the flooding

"Billions"? I admit that I am not at all intimately familiar with the region but assuming Beryl's track verifies and the storm does not stall out, will 4"-6" of precip over a fairly broad area actually result in BILLIONS of $$ in damage there?

I don't know about the price, but local mets have saying some places in Houston could see as much as 15". Depends on where it falls. We just came out of a very wet Spring and are 10" above normal. Some unmaintaned ditches are still holding water in Splendora directly north of Houston. They DID start releasing some water either yesterday or today...my brain is fried lol.

can you imagine what the san jacinto/trinity river is about to be like after what happened in may... sabine river too will get affected as well, the neches river is already over the road in Bridgecity, Tx

[jabman98]

"Billions"? I admit that I am not at all intimately familiar with the region but assuming Beryl's track verifies and the storm does not stall out, will 4"-6" of precip over a fairly broad area actually result in BILLIONS of $$ in damage there?

I don't know about the price, but local mets have saying some places in Houston could see as much as 15". Depends on where it falls. We just came out of a very wet Spring and are 10" above normal. Some unmaintaned ditches are still holding water in Splendora directly north of Houston. They DID start releasing some water either yesterday or today...my brain is fried lol.

can you imagine what the san jacinto/trinity river is about to be like after what happened in may... sabine river too will get affected as well, the neches river is already over the road in Bridgecity, Tx

I hope the Livingston dam repairs hold.

[mpic]

"Billions"? I admit that I am not at all intimately familiar with the region but assuming Beryl's track verifies and the storm does not stall out, will 4"-6" of precip over a fairly broad area actually result in BILLIONS of $$ in damage there?

I don't know about the price, but local mets have saying some places in Houston could see as much as 15". Depends on where it falls. We just came out of a very wet Spring and are 10" above normal. Some unmaintaned ditches are still holding water in Splendora directly north of Houston. They DID start releasing some water either yesterday or today...my brain is fried lol.

can you imagine what the san jacinto/trinity river is about to be like after what happened in may... sabine river too will get affected as well, the neches river is already over the road in Bridgecity, Tx

I sure can! I'm a mile away from the East Fork of the San Jac and the TRA told people last week that the dam at Lake Livingston has bad errosion damage and could fail. Tempers are flaring.

[capNstorms]

I don't know about the price, but local mets have saying some places in Houston could see as much as 15". Depends on where it falls. We just came out of a very wet Spring and are 10" above normal. Some unmaintaned ditches are still holding water in Splendora directly north of Houston. They DID start releasing some water either yesterday or today...my brain is fried lol.

can you imagine what the san jacinto/trinity river is about to be like after what happened in may... sabine river too will get affected as well, the neches river is already over the road in Bridgecity, Tx

I hope the Livingston dam repairs hold.

yeah and they have the flow cut to none right now for the repairs.... the trinity river is actually low, what are they going to do when the lake fills up and they need to release? is the repairs even done? Did yall see the drone footage of the damage to the dam? pretty gnarly

[mpic]

Per the NHC Beryl is only moving 10 mph? That means it will slow even further when it hits land? Worst case scenario!

[ElectricStorm]

Tornado watch up now until 10am for parts of SE Texas. Definitely continuing to slowly organize, might be able to get to 70-75 kts before landfall

[jabman98]

can you imagine what the san jacinto/trinity river is about to be like after what happened in may... sabine river too will get affected as well, the neches river is already over the road in Bridgecity, Tx

I hope the Livingston dam repairs hold.

yeah and they have the flow cut to none right now for the repairs.... the trinity river is actually low, what are they going to do when the lake fills up and they need to release? is the repairs even done? Did yall see the drone footage of the damage to the dam? pretty gnarly

I haven't seen the drone footage. But I saw an article that said they planned to complete repairs by Monday afternoon "before the storm hit." I think that might not work out for them.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the flight-level and radar data, I'd move the wind estimate up to 70 kt now. (The SFMR isn't particularly reliable there over water about 100 feet deep.)

[Steve]

Shout out to Reed. Kind of intense.

[Xyls]

Honestly Beryl may just squeak Cat 2 before coming ashore.