ATL: GORDON - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

Per NHC's Advisory 2, looks like model guidance is trending towards a quicker recurve further east. If this plays out, it will limit the potential intensity and ACE due to less time and cooler waters. Not sure how much of this was influenced by the GFS suite, though, since Euro (which was the only model that correctly forecasted genesis) has been insistent on a recurve further west.

The big change to note is that most of the guidance is significantly
slower and now start to recurve the system around day 5 (rather than
continue westward). The new forecast is a lot slower than the previous
one and future adjustments could be made if later guidance continue
this trend (continuity prevents a larger change).

[Emmett_Brown]

Looks a lot more organized on IR in the last couple of hours. We’ll see if it persists.

[cycloneye]

[GCANE]

Classic looking pouch but it is riding high in latitude.
Models aligned with this get swept away by a deep trof in the mid Atlantic

[ChrisH-UK]

TD Seven this morning, it still has a lot of dry air to contend with which will in the end kill it,

Source - https://col.st/N9f6a

[MarioProtVI]

TD Seven this morning, it still has a lot of dry air to contend with which will in the end kill it,

Source - https://col.st/N9f6a

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9049/rrMreY.gif [/url]

I wouldn’t say that just yet. Should gradually strengthen as depicted by NHC. Needs to get to end of forecast period before real intensification begins.

[WaveBreaking]

Latest ASCAT pass completely missed TD7

[Subtrop]

ssd b-deck

AL, 07, 2024091212, , BEST, 0, 175N, 339W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 20, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GORDON, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,

[Teban54]

ssd b-deck

AL, 07, 2024091212, , BEST, 0, 175N, 339W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 20, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GORDON, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,

I was just about to comment 10 minutes ago about how 7L seems to be organizing slower than I expected lol. I'll eat crow this time

[Subtrop]

lol

AL, 07, 2024091212, , BEST, 0, 175N, 339W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 20, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

lol

AL, 07, 2024091212, , BEST, 0, 175N, 339W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 20, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,

I thought there were new satellite estimates that made them rescind the TS designation, but from the advisory it sounds like they were just erring on the side of caution:

Tropical Depression Seven looks more organized on satellite imagery
this morning, with a compact circulation and a small curved band
with some deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers
indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However,
given the relatively small size of ongoing convection near the
center, the initial intensity was conservatively held at 30 knots,
or at the lower end of the estimates.

[TallyTracker]

I think the NHC wants another cycle of TS intensity estimates and more persistent convection to upgrade rather than one marginal cycle. Otherwise, they could end up naming a system that later is determined never to have reached TS strength in post-storm analysis. My guess is they’d prefer TS Seven in the post-season than TD Gordon. lol

[chaser1]

Good move on NHC to hold off on naming TD7. Granted that the limited convection is trying to fire over center but the problem is that the LLC seems to be becoming immediately detached and outrunning the convection. Vertical shear might just prevent it from crossing the threshold (at least for now).

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Is this just an ASCAT pass away from being named?

Tropical Depression Seven appears somewhat more organized on
satellite imagery this afternoon, with a compact circulation
and a couple bursts of deeper convection near the center, though it
has been exposed for portions of the day. Subjective and objective
Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical
storm. However, the initial intensity will stay 30 kt, at the lower
end of the estimates, until we get a little more definitive
evidence of a tropical storm.

[AnnularCane]

Is this just an ASCAT pass away from being named?

Tropical Depression Seven appears somewhat more organized on
satellite imagery this afternoon, with a compact circulation
and a couple bursts of deeper convection near the center, though it
has been exposed for portions of the day. Subjective and objective
Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical
storm. However, the initial intensity will stay 30 kt, at the lower
end of the estimates, until we get a little more definitive
evidence of a tropical storm.

Hopefully it does better next time.

[zhukm29]

Is this just an ASCAT pass away from being named?

Tropical Depression Seven appears somewhat more organized on
satellite imagery this afternoon, with a compact circulation
and a couple bursts of deeper convection near the center, though it
has been exposed for portions of the day. Subjective and objective
Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical
storm. However, the initial intensity will stay 30 kt, at the lower
end of the estimates, until we get a little more definitive
evidence of a tropical storm.

If we’re waiting for ASCAT to hit I guess this will never get named

[hipshot]

Classic looking pouch but it is riding high in latitude.
Models aligned with this get swept away by a deep trof in the mid Atlantic

What happened to the Bermuda high that always seems to be around this time of year?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Right call the NHC made not to name this earlier in the day. Clearly not a TS.