ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

986/13 eye drop, supports 985mb. Landfall could be in the low 970s or maybe upper 960s at this pace, although the winds will be lagging behind.

[cheezyWXguy]

Those FL winds of 65kt in the SE quad are notable, as they occurred when recon flew through the main band that is becoming the true eyewall. The fact that that jump in FL winds was measured subsequently after the pressure drop means the core is quickly becoming established that band wraps around the eye. If this continues it will be go-time in a couple of hours or less

[IcyTundra]

986/13 eye drop, supports 985mb. Landfall could be in the low 970s or maybe upper 960s at this pace, although the winds will be lagging behind.

I'm thinking 90-95 mph at landfall with a worse scenario being like 100-105 mph.

[cheezyWXguy]

986/13 eye drop, supports 985mb. Landfall could be in the low 970s or maybe upper 960s at this pace, although the winds will be lagging behind.

This reminds me a lot of Sally in 2020 when it blew up into a borderline major at landfall. Wonder if we’ll be having the same debate about whether they upgrade to 3 or keep it a 2 in post storm analysis. A bit of stretch right now, but not outside of the realm of possibilities

[syfr]

the end of that cone is call "uncertainty" when it bubbles out like that, and that's also just so they can say look we had it in the cone, 96hrs later to make themselves feel better..

Actually it's shaped that way because of statistics and probability.

[galvestontx]

If it makes cat1 it will just barely, most likely high end trop storm. Her head will get cut off 20 miles inland. We dont mess around in Texas.

[eastcoastFL]

the end of that cone is call "uncertainty" when it bubbles out like that, and that's also just so they can say look we had it in the cone, 96hrs later to make themselves feel better..

What are you even talking about? Should they have put the exact path that the storm will take over the next 150 hours? The cone means that there is a 66% chance the center of the storm will be in the highlighted cone at that particular point in time. You don't need to tell me what the cone means...The reason it is bubble, is because a 5 day forecast is prone to numerous errors.

they just started using the lollipops at the end of the projected cones, its so childish tbh

My novice understanding is that each part of the cone represents the overall average historical error for each portion of the forecast period. It’s not just a cool graphic, it’s science and math.

[GCANE]

She has linked up with the EPAC juice.
Small feed flowing thru the IoT.
The lower Beryl's pressure goes, the more she will entrain that.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... latest.gif

[eastcoastFL]

986/13 eye drop, supports 985mb. Landfall could be in the low 970s or maybe upper 960s at this pace, although the winds will be lagging behind.

I'm thinking 90-95 mph at landfall with a worse scenario being like 100-105 mph.

Last advisory was about an hour and a half ago and she was at 65MPH. She probably has about 10-12 hours left over water, I don’t know if 100 will be possible. That would be some serious RI, but this storm has beat the odds quite a few times already so who knows.

[IcyTundra]

If it makes cat1 it will just barely, most likely high end trop storm. Her head will get cut off 20 miles inland. We dont mess around in Texas.

NHC disagrees with you but you can believe what you want to believe.

[ChrisH-UK]

Structure building out well, loads of convection and wrapping up.

[eastcoastFL]

She has linked up with the EPAC juice.
Small feed flowing thru the IoT.
The lower Beryl's pressure goes, the more she will entrain that.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... latest.gif

Hey GCane, good to see ya. Do you see any tornado threats for the western gulf coast tonight?

[GCANE]

65 mm/hr rain rate. Core will be heating rapidly

[sphelps8681]

Well now we have surfers Texas surfing in Galveston. Guess if you need to you just do. Hope they stay safe.

[eastcoastFL]

This buoy just south of the storms center is reporting sustained winds of 45kts, gusting over 55kts.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pre ... _label=CDT

[GCANE]

She has linked up with the EPAC juice.
Small feed flowing thru the IoT.
The lower Beryl's pressure goes, the more she will entrain that.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... latest.gif

Hey GCane, good to see ya. Do you see any tornado threats for the western gulf coast tonight?

Much thanks eastcoastFL.
There is a small amount of helicity right now on the coast. Looks like nothing to worry about yet.
A larger pocket of helicity in associated with that large area of heavy convection just north of Beryl's CoC.
That maybe of real concern when that gets to the coast and land friction effects kick in.

[cycloneye]

What are you even talking about? Should they have put the exact path that the storm will take over the next 150 hours? The cone means that there is a 66% chance the center of the storm will be in the highlighted cone at that particular point in time. You don't need to tell me what the cone means...The reason it is bubble, is because a 5 day forecast is prone to numerous errors.

they just started using the lollipops at the end of the projected cones, its so childish tbh

My novice understanding is that each part of the cone represents the overall average historical error for each portion of the forecast period. It’s not just a cool graphic, it’s science and math.

Ok folks. Let's not continue with this and return to comment about Beryl that is a few hours away from landfall and is important that the oficial information is posted here for those who live in the warning areas.

[aspen]

986/13 eye drop, supports 985mb. Landfall could be in the low 970s or maybe upper 960s at this pace, although the winds will be lagging behind.

This reminds me a lot of Sally in 2020 when it blew up into a borderline major at landfall. Wonder if we’ll be having the same debate about whether they upgrade to 3 or keep it a 2 in post storm analysis. A bit of stretch right now, but not outside of the realm of possibilities

Sally was certainly something. I still vividly remember that monster convective burst that went off and led to a sudden center reformation and instantaneous intensification. Probably the most extreme example of vortex stacking I can recall.

I doubt Beryl will get that strong, though. The broad wind field and minimal time left over water should mean that even if it manages to get down to the upper 960s, the winds will probably lag behind a fair bit. Probably gonna be one of those storms which could’ve been a major with like 12+ more hours over water.

[GCANE]

It's serious now - Miss Piggy is heading in.

[HurricaneBrain]

The dry air slot is finally gone from the core. It’s go time.