ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LadyBug72]

Lurker from way back (joined 2002). Just checking in from Anahuac/Oak Island. Squall line came through around 11 this morning maybe 3/4” with 30 mph gust. Looking for 4-50 mph gust next 24 hrs. Stay safe S2K members.
Anyone know what happened to Ticka?

Sending you a private message.

[capNstorms]

the GFS, CMC, ICON models still have Beryl in the GOM in the 12z models at 18 hours, I think some of the other 12z models are showing it slowing down giving it more time to develop over the GOM, its wobble time

[capNstorms]

that core is wrapping up son!

[weeniepatrol]

Poleward outflow is tapping into the jet stream, as forecast



Such intense mass evacuation of air from Beryl does support the notion of robust pressure falls, like HWRF shows. Assuming nothing disrupts the system.

[CypressMike]

Organizing and forming that eye, then faster rate of deepening will follow once it's into that sweet spot, and a strengthening hurricane on landfall, IMO... those winds will intensify and burst to the surface. It's starting to make the north jog to my naked eye on satellite.
Matagorda Bay to Galveston all the way to Sabine pass need to be on High alert for the storm surge, 6'+ 8-10' possibly with the high tide coming in and high wind bursts from a strengthening hurricane...

Houston, SETX, and EAST Texas counties need to prepare for possibly a foot of rainfall over the next 36hrs if this thing doesn't start moving faster than the models had initialized... FV3, HRRR, WRF-ARW, all showing copious amounts of rainfall. If you have any last minute preparations to make, now is the time to make them.

Had the first feeder move in NW of Houston a bit ago. Some pretty impressive wind gusts and rainfall. All the people laughing about the storm yesterday probably had their eyes opened a bit…

I recorded a 40 mph gust in Cypress (Bridgeland) when the leading edge of that feeder band came through.

[capNstorms]

that core is wrapping up son!

"Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.1N 95.7W this evening" per NWS Marine Forecast

[StormPyrate]

any actual evidence its coming together?
seems to be bad on Sat imagery, not really improving

[Craters]

Hurricane Warning just blasted across my phone for Brazoria county!

Yup -- here, too, also in Brazoria County.

Y’all were my call yesterday. Hair east of the bay maybe 982 (could drop lower) and cat 1 strengthening coming in. I was looking at EPS and GPS means and nudged it east due to the icon. Hope to be close on those calls but more hope all you down there come out okay.

Thanks, Steve. Yeah, we're hoping like crazy that RI won't go bonkers. I mean, if it gets to a CAT 1 storm between now and landfall, I guess RI would be a given, by definition, but any more than that would be evil.

[IcyTundra]

any actual evidence its coming together?
seems to be bad on Sat imagery, not really improving

Radar presentation is improving. Pressure dropped from what recon found this morning.

[Blown Away]

Low level structure looks really good, being able to see the low level clouds rotating not a great sign of a strengthening system IMO…

[capNstorms]

hot towers popping off in the SE quad, core wrapping around, favorable environment for RI
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02L&product=vis

where's the dry air at?


very favorable to develope...


these rainfall totals are looking juicy

[capNstorms]

[ronjon]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/xCjnYnPr/goes16-vis-02-L-202407071757-2.gif [/url]

Low level structure looks really good, being able to see the low level clouds rotating not a great sign of a strengthening system IMO…

Agree BA. Dry air still mixing into the system preventing that heavy dense CDO needed for significant pressure drops. Has a way to go still to make a hurricane.

[IsabelaWeather]

I don't think we need this crap on the forums. This shouldnt be a place to criticize professional mets who have to balance public opinion and public awareness. 4 days ago it looked like the storm was going to tampico, there is no reason to start talking about a galveston landfall. That unnecessarily frightens people. You guys are making "forecasts" with hindsight 2020 as if it were obvious where the storm was going to go.

Many people here also have no risk whatsoever by just throwing out calls. Sure sometimes you get it right when you just check darts randomly at the dartboard.

Some criticism is fair and warranted. There’s way too much model hugging and not enough old fashioned meteorology. The problem is that there were signs fairly early on that some models were picking up on (namely the ICON, Navy, and JWA) that the ridge could break down, but the typical favorite models weren’t giving into that.

The other problem is when Mets (and the general public) use definitive statements instead of probabilities.

There’s no way to sugarcoat this one. This was a rather big miss for models and also some mets who were convinced this was a Mexico issue.

That isn't true. There were plenty of meteorological reasons the storm could have went into CA or Mexico. The longwave trough could easily have moved slower, the big thing here is beryl was stronger and more resilient to the shear. Turned the TUTT into a retrograding upperlevel low. Had it been disrupted then it would have went SW to W into CA or Mex. Take the exact same scenario you could easily have had a disrupted storm that did not behave like Beryl. Sometimes there are randomness you cant forecast or maybe there is something we still don't fully understand.

You are just using the benefit of hindsight to make it sound so obvious.

I also don't think the models busted that badly, there were many ensemble members that took the track it ended up taking, the NHC track was pretty darn good from the outset.

[GCANE]

Shear holding steady at 9 knts

[GCANE]

CAPE 9500!
Never seen it this high before

[RachelAnna]

Organizing and forming that eye, then faster rate of deepening will follow once it's into that sweet spot, and a strengthening hurricane on landfall, IMO... those winds will intensify and burst to the surface. It's starting to make the north jog to my naked eye on satellite.
Matagorda Bay to Galveston all the way to Sabine pass need to be on High alert for the storm surge, 6'+ 8-10' possibly with the high tide coming in and high wind bursts from a strengthening hurricane...

Houston, SETX, and EAST Texas counties need to prepare for possibly a foot of rainfall over the next 36hrs if this thing doesn't start moving faster than the models had initialized... FV3, HRRR, WRF-ARW, all showing copious amounts of rainfall. If you have any last minute preparations to make, now is the time to make them.

Had the first feeder move in NW of Houston a bit ago. Some pretty impressive wind gusts and rainfall. All the people laughing about the storm yesterday probably had their eyes opened a bit…

I recorded a 40 mph gust in Cypress (Bridgeland) when the leading edge of that feeder band came through.

Same here! I’m off 290 at Telge and Spring Cypress. Got about 3/4 of an inch of rain, as well.

[canebeard]

https://i.imgur.com/x55tBV3.png

1979, Cat 5 Hurricane David (926 mb) hit Hispanola, and came off the island and headed for Florida. Organization looked excellent, outflow excellent, and hurricane warnings went up for S. and central Florida, and steady intensification forecast repeatedly until landfall. Two+ days later the highest winds recorded on land were at Ft. Pierce, were only 70 mph sustained. Point, looked great, Labor Day weekend, hot ocean, but not much re-intensification occurred to everyone's surprise,.

David gusted to mid 90’s from Jupiter to Ft. Pierce. There was heavy vegetation and roof damage.

Jim Leonard and myself were in the area, me in Jupiter, Jim in Ft. Pierce. The 95 mph GUST was recorded at the Coast Guard station, very exposed on the south side of the inlet to the northeast wind, which is on the short causeway from the mainland to the jetty into the ocean. Hence, winds in Ft Pierce itself on the mainland were less, for sure. The damage was typical for a high end tropical storm, with a few hurricane gusts; in a place where trees hadn't been wind trimmed in many years. This quote is from the great Wikipedia: "Some clapboard-style homes in the county suffered major damage, especially in Gifford and other low income communities" IE. shacks and other old poorly built domiciles.

[Kazmit]

Looking a lot like Nicole 2022 right now. A mess of a hurricane.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks like the dry air is finally mixing out, and outflow is now pretty good in all quadrants so it just needs to fire some convection near the center for this to go. Look for hot towers near the center, and when they start rotating, you know it is off to the races.