ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[La Sirena]

Good morning from the Appalachian mountains of northeast Tennessee! Prayers and good vibes for those that have already been in Helene’s path. I’m about 15 minutes from the western NC line and we’ve been rain drenched for days. Creeks and rivers are up and overflowing. Winds are starting to get pretty gusty. Trees in the area started coming down yesterday afternoon and overnight. Today will definitely be worst as the rain and wind pick up.

Time to go build my porch furniture fort to keep it from being a hazard. Very different from the days of living on the coast. My hurricane prep is just a little different here lol.

[Nimbus]

Two hurricanes in a row on the gulf coast that the beloved TVCN consensus by the NHC is too far left from actual landfall 24 hours before landfall. A blend between the Euro and GFS would had worked just like during Francine, ICON even did better than the TVCN consensus.

https://i.imgur.com/4BlJK11.jpeg

Wxman57 was telling us to follow the Icon. What an incredible forecaster he is!

I bought gas for my generator and test ran it on his forecast for Tampa Bay, 230,000 out of power this morning.
Tallahassee avoided the worst of the storm, could have been much worse.

[Nimbus]

Worst flooding in Tampa Bay Area in decades. Countless houses flooded that have never flooded before. Seems surge just peaked as it is slowly dropping at a buoy near me. Can’t help but think we dodged a bullet with the storm track, but this storm will be talked about for a long time for the likely unprecedented damage in modern era.

Homes without stilts on barrier islands are now uninhabitable due to flooding. Gulfport flooded bad- homes on fire left to burn because winds too high for fire department. Entire barrier islands fire and rescue teams left to go inland. Will be hundreds of millions of dollars in damage on these islands alone. Camille last hurricane this bad on the islands.

I have heard peak surge for the islands was 5ft from one source and 7ft from another, 2 ft makes a huge difference as it ruins the sheet rock and electric wiring. Insurance companies are going to hit us with higher premiums over this one.

[blueskies]

Did anyone else see that aqua fence they built around Tampa general to keep water out of the hospital? Pretty Amazing and it looks like it worked.

I have seen news clips of the aqua walls being put up around the hospital for Helene and a previous storm. I wondered why these walls or similar product could not be used elsewhere.

I have also wondered why a hospital was built on a piece of land almost completely surrounded by water.

[aspen]

It's entering South Carolina, this is crazy. Is it going to end up being a New England threat?

If that means it gets out of the way quicker than I guess it’s not all that bad.

I remember at some points, the ICON was showing it miss the interaction with the ULL and going straight up the coast.

[Seele]

It's entering South Carolina, this is crazy. Is it going to end up being a New England threat?

?? The center is in Georgia near Macon. Giant storm, certainly bigger than the state. The center is not entering South Carolina but how could the storm not do so? NHC did great!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

Based on that IR I'd think the center was already in SC. Based on radar the center is somewhere between Athens and Augusta still. But it is significantly east of forecast and has been since landfall. And like others have said, it's even more strange because multiple global models have been showing this more eastern path for a while now while the NHC has stubbornly continued to forecast a turn to the NW even as of the 5AM update. I'm sure there's some good reasoning they have for their forecasts. They are the best in the business. But I'm not sure what that reasoning is.

[blueskies]

Why does the NHC cone show a NNW movement while we continue to see a NNE movement from the Globals and the Sat loops?
This is getting comical at this point.
Why are they so insistent on missing the forecast to the west?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/040144_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Don't other weather services take over from the NHC after a storm is a certain distance inland ?

[Pasmorade]

Why does the NHC cone show a NNW movement while we continue to see a NNE movement from the Globals and the Sat loops?
This is getting comical at this point.
Why are they so insistent on missing the forecast to the west?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/040144_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Don't other weather services take over from the NHC after a storm is a certain distance inland ?

The only one I know of is the Weather Prediction Center, which only takes over when the storm is a remnant low but is still impacting the States.

[jlauderdal]

Did anyone else see that aqua fence they built around Tampa general to keep water out of the hospital? Pretty Amazing and it looks like it worked.

I have seen news clips of the aqua walls being put up around the hospital for Helene and a previous storm. I wondered why these walls or similar product could not be used elsewhere.

I have also wondered why a hospital was built on a piece of land almost completely surrounded by water.

They can be used in many places but they are very expensive which makes its audience limited.

[Seele]

Why does the NHC cone show a NNW movement while we continue to see a NNE movement from the Globals and the Sat loops?
This is getting comical at this point.
Why are they so insistent on missing the forecast to the west?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/040144_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Don't other weather services take over from the NHC after a storm is a certain distance inland ?

No. The NHC has responsibility has long as a storm in their basin is a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

[caneman]

Worst flooding in Tampa Bay Area in decades. Countless houses flooded that have never flooded before. Seems surge just peaked as it is slowly dropping at a buoy near me. Can’t help but think we dodged a bullet with the storm track, but this storm will be talked about for a long time for the likely unprecedented damage in modern era.

Homes without stilts on barrier islands are now uninhabitable due to flooding. Gulfport flooded bad- homes on fire left to burn because winds too high for fire department. Entire barrier islands fire and rescue teams left to go inland. Will be hundreds of millions of dollars in damage on these islands alone. Camille last hurricane this bad on the islands.

I have heard peak surge for the islands was 5ft from one source and 7ft from another, 2 ft makes a huge difference as it ruins the sheet rock and electric wiring. Insurance companies are going to hit us with higher premiums over this one.

In my neighborhood in Indian Rocks I'll bet it was more like 7 ft. Many roads were washed over from the intercostal. It's never happened before. Ever! Many homes here flooded that had never flooded before. This has to be historic or certainly nothing anyone alive today in this area had ever experienced.

[Steve]

Come on man. That’s weak.

Brining politics into a board that begs people all the time not to do it.

[Bigbird11]

Good morning from the Appalachian mountains of northeast Tennessee! Prayers and good vibes for those that have already been in Helene’s path. I’m about 15 minutes from the western NC line and we’ve been rain drenched for days. Creeks and rivers are up and overflowing. Winds are starting to get pretty gusty. Trees in the area started coming down yesterday afternoon and overnight. Today will definitely be worst as the rain and wind pick up.

Time to go build my porch furniture fort to keep it from being a hazard. Very different from the days of living on the coast. My hurricane prep is just a little different here lol.

Hello neighbor! Knoxville checking in. Same story here as it's already been raining for days I guess from that other low pressure system? My home is surrounded by trees and I hope they make it through this one. I wish I had a generator right now but it's too late for that now! Best wishes to you and everyone else affected by this storm.

[ObsessedMiami]

Some of you seem disappointed that Helene was a wind underperformer but I have to tell you, I’m super impressed that this storm was two hours from landfall and we were still getting brisk borderline tropical storm gusts in South Miami Dade. Enormous!

[ColdMiser123]

A very grim flooding situation ongoing for much of western North Carolina. Good amount of rain still to go, as well.

[StPeteMike]

Made it out well here, but the beaches and coastal areas of St. Pete not so much. Many areas are saying this is the worst flooding/surge they have ever seen. I have yet to hear word on coastal cities like Tarpon Springs and Safety Harbor, but there’s a stretch of US 19 in Pasco still closed off for thru traffic due to ongoing water rescues. I also follow the local emergency calls report and there’s been plenty of structure fire calls since late evening yesterday.

I’m hoping this is a wake up call for the residents that think they can ride out a major coming towards Tampa Bay, you can’t! You not only put yourself at risk, you’re putting people with possible families themselves at risk. If you are in an area that is MANDATORY, get the f*** out. No need to underplay the situation or think you can brave through it. Just leave!

[Hammy]

Getting slammed here, constant 35-40 mph gusts and the power's been having split second cuts

Probably worse now on the back side than anything we got ahead of it, and ironically now there's very little rain, just mist

[Pas_Bon]

Did anyone else see that aqua fence they built around Tampa general to keep water out of the hospital? Pretty Amazing and it looks like it worked.

I have seen news clips of the aqua walls being put up around the hospital for Helene and a previous storm. I wondered why these walls or similar product could not be used elsewhere.

I have also wondered why a hospital was built on a piece of land almost completely surrounded by water.

They can be used in many places but they are very expensive which makes its audience limited.

Tampa news report said it would cost a homeowner about $20k

[Powellrm]

Central NC here. Was worried about an eastern shift early this week via ICON so I bought more sand bags. Glad I did. Woke up in the middle of the night saw the eastern shift and may projected rain total today went from 1” to 3”+. Woke up this morning and it’s back down to 1” or so.

[ObsessedMiami]

Wall Street Journal is reporting Helene “rips through Florida with 140 mph winds”.
Did I miss something?
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/climate-env ... s-2818e866