ATL: HELENE - Models

[jlauderdal]

12Z Euro with what looks like a slight E Shift. All the nasty weather on the east side. Hurricane force gusts well inland and in Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/OSXzDtz.png

https://i.imgur.com/xRCewGC.png

I remember when the Euro was heading west, way west. What have they done to the once mighty Euro? Fort Myers to Tampa is going to need to treat this as a major hurricane landfall, a few wobbles on approach and its your storm instead of the big bend.

[CycloysisNegative]

while i generally agree with y'all about it being a good thing moving away faster, it also means more widespread damage further inland...

like those who mentioned Charlie, we had some of the worst damage ever here in central florida all the way up to Jax from a storm that landed hundreds of miles away

That’s a very valid point. I suppose the ceiling of destruction is limited (in regards to costal landfall point(s)), but the overall widespread destruction factor increases. Double edged sword.

[StPeteMike]

while i generally agree with y'all about it being a good thing moving away faster, it also means more widespread damage further inland...

like those who mentioned Charlie, we had some of the worst damage ever here in central florida all the way up to Jax from a storm that landed hundreds of miles away

And on top of that, the faster forward speed would make the gusts and sustained winds higher. In an area that would probably see 85 mph in a storm moving 10 mph, you’re talking about close to 100 mph with a forward speed of 25 mph+.

[jlauderdal]

while i generally agree with y'all about it being a good thing moving away faster, it also means more widespread damage further inland...

like those who mentioned Charlie, we had some of the worst damage ever here in central florida all the way up to Jax from a storm that landed hundreds of miles away

The speed is important with rainfall totals but this is shaping up to be a wind and surge event to the max and speed only makes that worse. Wilma was moving fast back in the day and I was without power for 10 days.

[Teban54]

while i generally agree with y'all about it being a good thing moving away faster, it also means more widespread damage further inland...

like those who mentioned Charlie, we had some of the worst damage ever here in central florida all the way up to Jax from a storm that landed hundreds of miles away

And on top of that, the faster forward speed would make the gusts and sustained winds higher. In an area that would probably see 85 mph in a storm moving 10 mph, you’re talking about close to 100 mph with a forward speed of 25 mph+.

Can I get a quote for where it was said PTC 9 would be moving at 25 mph, in the first place? (Question not directed at you, more for ConvergenceZone and others who started these claims.)

As I just said in the discussion thread, NHC's forecast points in GoM averages to 17.3 mph, not 25.

[otowntiger]

I've said this before, but thank god this storm will be moving at an absolute lightning speed. It's going to be over as quick as it starts. Talk about a quit hit system.

Yes, but that fast forward speed means stronger winds go further inland. As an example Charley in 2004 was moving so fast when he approached Orlando from the southwest we were getting gusts over 100mph in metro Orlando even though the storm had 150 miles over land to get here. Not to mention whatever the max sustained winds are you add the forward speed to right side winds to make them that much higher.

:Edit: oops looks like several folks already addressed this ahead of me. Sorry for the repeated info!

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1838279019042869533

[tolakram]

Levi does a good job explaining what the half a.. models are doing. It assumes a stacked system which where it is now would explode in development. Reality is the system is not stacked, so the assumption is wrong. Unless it stacks quickly, then probably still too strong. We will see. With today's models could we have predicted a Wilma like intensification?

[Steve]

while i generally agree with y'all about it being a good thing moving away faster, it also means more widespread damage further inland...

like those who mentioned Charlie, we had some of the worst damage ever here in central florida all the way up to Jax from a storm that landed hundreds of miles away

And on top of that, the faster forward speed would make the gusts and sustained winds higher. In an area that would probably see 85 mph in a storm moving 10 mph, you’re talking about close to 100 mph with a forward speed of 25 mph+.

Can I get a quote for where it was said PTC 9 would be moving at 25 mph, in the first place? (Question not directed at you, more for ConvergenceZone and others who started these claims.)

As I just said in the discussion thread, NHC's forecast points in GoM averages to 17.3 mph, not 25.

I know they smooth out the forward speed and direction over increments of time. So perhaps it's closer to that when landfalling since it appears that it will be accelerating.

[ConvergenceZone]

while i generally agree with y'all about it being a good thing moving away faster, it also means more widespread damage further inland...

like those who mentioned Charlie, we had some of the worst damage ever here in central florida all the way up to Jax from a storm that landed hundreds of miles away

And on top of that, the faster forward speed would make the gusts and sustained winds higher. In an area that would probably see 85 mph in a storm moving 10 mph, you’re talking about close to 100 mph with a forward speed of 25 mph+.

Can I get a quote for where it was said PTC 9 would be moving at 25 mph, in the first place? (Question not directed at you, more for ConvergenceZone and others who started these claims.)

As I just said in the discussion thread, NHC's forecast points in GoM averages to 17.3 mph, not 25.

If you go back to WXMANs post in the discussion thread, he mentioned and I quote, "For now, I have landfall northern Apalachee Bay Thursday afternoon. Moving north at 20 kts at landfall" and 20Knots correlates to 23 mph, And like the NHC, WXMAN also studies hurricanes for living, and that's his job, so when he speaks, I listen. Originally I thought 20Kts was 25 mph, but I just googled it and it's 23 mph

[Steve]

Levi does a good job explaining what the half a.. models are doing. It assumes a stacked system which where it is now would explode in development. Reality is the system is not stacked, so the assumption is wrong. Unless it stacks quickly, then probably still too strong. We will see. With today's models could we have predicted a Wilma like intensification?

Thanks since I didn't get a chance to watch it. Definitely 2 camps of model intensity. All the globals except GFS are around 970's. GFS landfalls at 950. And the Hurricane Models as well as NAM 12km are substantially lower. While the actual NAM intensity needs to be ignored, look for compression in the spread of intensity over the next few series of runs. Not sure which way it's going to go, but I think we could see 950's or 960's as the low pressure consensus unless the globals stay locked in that 970-972 range.

[chris_fit]

12z EPS. Tampa area still in play. Wayyyy to close once again.

[Blown Away]

12z EPS. Tampa area still in play. Wayyyy to close once again.

https://i.imgur.com/yDhYZ2V.png

Chris how does the 12z compare to 06z and 00z?

[chris_fit]

12z EPS. Tampa area still in play. Wayyyy to close once again.

https://i.imgur.com/yDhYZ2V.png

Chris how does the 12z compare to 06z and 00z?

Here's the 00Z at the same time period.




And the 06Z at the same time period.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Posted with no comment
https://i.imgur.com/iOfIYp5.png

oh my god

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

tho honestly. That sort of intensity couldnt be sustained for more than a few hours. The eyewall would collapse on itself the system would weaken in general, Just as Wilma did. Something to keep in mind

[Steve]

Here are the early cycle 18z models



Late cycle 12z models



Late cycle EPS



Early cycle 18z Intensity


Experimental late cycle 12z intensity

[Beer Belly]

Is this storm going to do the:
- Stronger storm = more north direction
- Weaker storm = drift more East

[Zonacane]

Given how aggressive the intensity models and SHIPS are, I would bet on a major hurricane. 

[StPeteMike]

Is this storm going to do the:
- Stronger storm = more north direction
- Weaker storm = drift more East

A weaker storm wouldn’t drift more east. Irma and Charley would like to say hi. Hurricane Elsa was weaker than what NHC has forecasted for Helene (which I believe is still conservative) and it went due north off the West Coast.