ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/P9LwYZk.png
A more detailed ascat.

If ASCAT is showing even a single TS wind barb then it’s probably a TS by now. Probably gonna be named at 5pm.

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/P9LwYZk.png
A more detailed ascat.

I was about to post the same picture, fairly well organized with a small pocket of TS force winds.

[SFLcane]

Whatever convection there is on the downtrend right now.

[Michele B]

Treasure Coast here: Got my gas, water, canned food, batteries, flashlights, etc (this is prepping for electrical outage not a doomsday scenario). PLEASE start preparing if you're in Central Florida before mass panic sets in. The gas stations and stores are packed and we are on the east coast. Stay safe everyone and keep your head on a swivel.

Yeah, so soon after Helene, people have not forgotten. That's what usually happens after a storm. Since this is so soon afterward, people still have hurricane preps on their mind.

Which is a good thing!

Gotta go shopping myself in a little while, and I'm dreading it because I figure there'll be lines EVERYWHERE! Good thing my list is short.

[ConvergenceZone]

I can’t imagine this eye of a cat 3 moving across the Tampa bay! Water surge, winds and rain would catastrophic. There are too many houses (most of them mansions) around the bay. All the damages causes will be historic. Nobody is ready to watch this scenario!

Well...I can sum it up for you

Its over. The city population would halve over a week.

I live here. It floods awful already with just a rainstorm. But the complacency and the amount of building up here has really exacerbated everything, the draining system is beyond destroyed as it is because of all the growth since 2020

If we get a Category 4 or 5. This city is toast. All these transplants wont stick around, they will go back to wherever they came and the city will be an economic black hole like new orleans was after Katrina. Not to mention Downtown, the Airport and 30% of the rest of the city and suburbs would be completely under storm surge. Pinellas would be toast aswell

Yea, that would be bad. As far as your term "transplants", when you think about it, probably about 90% of the US population are transplants in some form or another. Rarely are people born in one location and stay there, their entire life. Some of my extended family lost their homes in Katrina, and they were born in Idaho. Regardless, Tampa better be prepared just in case. I'm eating crow big time with this system as I only expected it to be a messy tropical storm at worst. But hey I own up to it.

[johngaltfla]

What is the expected storm surge for a category 4 in Tampa?

Worse than this:

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/hurricane1921

[FireRat]

Hope y'all are ready for soon to be Milton in the FL Peninsula! Everyone from where Helene came ashore south to the Keys, Naples, even Miami, should monitor closely in case there are changes in the model track trends! Oct 8-10 looks like the landfall time farne, centered on Oct 9.

[Nimbus]

Levi posted on Twitter/X that he is working up a video for Milton soon.
I'm curious what he will be keying on, the NHC cone is pretty wide for 96 hours.

[Michele B]

Under the current forecast, I am about 75 miles east of Naples. What can I expect from this storm?

Without knowing the exact track, it's hard to know, but I would prepare for flooding, at the least.

That area used to be mostly Everglades, swamp, so it's prone to flooding.

[ElectricStorm]

Whoa, checked yesterday and it was just tagged an invest now I check and it's forecast to be nearly a major

Hope it ends up not being too bad

[jhpigott]

Can’t believe Iam back on here seeing another possible major hitting Florida. This has to be the worst season ever. If it stays south of Tampa it’s still going to destroy a populated place like Ft Myers, Sarasota, and possibly even Naples. North will be horrible for Tampa and Pinellas which is a double blow. This is just nuts.

Unless future Milton fizzles that are really no good out comes like you mentioned. Also wanted to mention this storm is almost certainly to have a significantly greater impact on the east coast of Florida than Helene did. Looks like anywhere from Dayton Beach to the SE metro corridor is going to get storm conditions

[psyclone]

Levi posted on Twitter/X that he is working up a video for Milton soon.
I'm curious what he will be keying on, the NHC cone is pretty wide for 96 hours.

Cone shape does not change with uncertainty. Look at those wind probs instead. They are very bullish for an initial track. Yikes

[Weathertracker96]

Milton is here already. Wow

The gas stations in my area are already getting packed. Going to pick up some items today from store. Do you all expect Milton to grow in size? I’m live in Vero Beach so I figure if it comes north, we may be in for some rough weather

[Landy]

Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[underthwx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...
12:25 PM CDT Sat Oct 5
Location: 22.3°N 95.3°W
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Milton is on the fast track of intensifying....hurricane by tomorrow evening perhaps?...

[Hugo1989]

Hillsborough county is being busy this early afternoon! I feel people is getting this threat more seriously than with Ian. I live 5 minutes away from Ruskin Radar and being honest I’m more concerned that I was with Ian.

[NDG]

That ASCAT definitely made them change their mind quick!

[Canelaw99]

Did any of the models have it as a tropical storm this early? If so, what was their outcome? If not, what impact might earlier formation have? I know, usually, stronger storm means more north but also know there are other factors at play here keeping it more to the south.

[chaser1]

Looks to be organizing to me:

https://i.postimg.cc/KzyBvLLd/goes16-vis-swir-14-L-202410051532.gif

Yeah, and FAST. Definitely NOT your typical baroclinic frontal low. The last 12 hours have been a blur and I cannot fathom that we suddenly have a TD on the verge of being named, with the prospect of a major hurricane to threaten South or Central Florida in just a few days I'll need a couple hours just to catch up on the umpteenth Discussion pages from this a.m. while at work. I'm sure the topic has already come up but, I'm guessing TS (or Hurricane) Watches will need be issued by tomorrow morning?

[Michele B]

Can’t believe Iam back on here seeing another possible major hitting Florida. This has to be the worst season ever. If it stays south of Tampa it’s still going to destroy a populated place like Ft Myers, Sarasota, and possibly even Naples. North will be horrible for Tampa and Pinellas which is a double blow. This is just nuts.

People want to "play the odds," meaning they figure if it has just happened to us, then it won't happen again.

Many people won't leave for exactly that reason...they'll figure they've HAD their "turn," and there won't be another.

That is what makes this so nuts. Because "it's happening again!" IN THE SAME SEASON.