ATL: ISAAC - Extratropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2024

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[Iceresistance]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2024

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

It's me!

[Category5Kaiju]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2024

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

It's me!

See you in 2030.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like my bet of the "I" name being the significant storm this year was totally wrong.

[Hurricane2022]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2024

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

It's me!

So it's about time you started going to the gym, bro. You seem too small and weak to me. (it's just irony!

[Teban54]

In fairness, the storm that actually became Helene is way more fitting for the name Isaac, and it probably would have happened had NHC not been so conservative on naming shorties this year.

First advisory has near-hurricane strength for days. At least this would bring on some amounts of ACE; let's see if it pulls a Don and becomes an unexpected hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 37.1N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 37.1N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 37.3N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 37.9N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 38.8N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 40.1N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 41.4N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 42.7N 29.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

NNNN

[AnnularCane]

In fairness, the storm that actually became Helene is way more fitting for the name Isaac, and it probably would have happened had NHC not been so conservative on naming shorties this year.

First advisory has near-hurricane strength for days. At least this would bring on some amounts of ACE; let's see if it pulls a Don and becomes an unexpected hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 37.1N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 37.1N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 37.3N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 37.9N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 38.8N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 40.1N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 41.4N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 42.7N 29.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

NNNN

Yes, if PTC 8 had been named...still wish it had. But there was more than one "shortie" that might have warranted a name, which means we would have been past the I storm by the time what is now Helene was named.

[CrazyC83]

Even the Azores aren't in the path. That said, this is in a busy shipping corridor.

But the curse of the "I" is broken for one year at least - the lone original no less! But don't give Imelda ideas in 2025...

[Category5Kaiju]

Even the Azores aren't in the path. That said, this is in a busy shipping corridor.

But the curse of the "I" is broken for one year at least - the lone original no less! But don't give Imelda ideas in 2025...

It would be something if, instead, we end up getting an H curse instead going forward (with Helene being the start of it) and don't see a brutal I storm for a while. This, to a certain extent, happened with L/M, where Matthew, Maria, and Michael happened, followed by insignificant M storms in following years and L taking over (Lorenzo, Laura, Larry, and Lee)

[ouragans]

99L looks to have a low level circulation with a bit of convection in the centre, the main problem with it looks to be shear.

If this gets called a TS then why didn't others get called a TS, I doubt that this will be given a name.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7339/tSMIbX.gif [/url]

And 18 hours later

[REDHurricane]

99L looks to have a low level circulation with a bit of convection in the centre, the main problem with it looks to be shear.

If this gets called a TS then why didn't others get called a TS, I doubt that this will be given a name.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7339/tSMIbX.gif [/url]

If this gets named then I will be 100% convinced that Michael Brennan's son is named Isaac.

[CrazyC83]

My guess is that the BT will move up the genesis quite a bit, at least 12 to 24 hours. I think it will find that it was an STS or TS as early as last night or this morning.

[ElectricStorm]

These systems in the subtropics that kind of come out of nowhere can turn into overperformers pretty quickly like we've seen in recent years. Pablo 2019, Epsilon 2020, Martin 2022, Don 2023 were all expected to not amount to much at first but all became hurricanes. Based on the initial forecast Isaac might be able to join them.

At least we finally broke the I curse this year. But Isaac has somehow made it this far without getting retired so I guess it's not too surprising

[zhukm29]

These systems in the subtropics that kind of come out of nowhere can turn into overperformers pretty quickly like we've seen in recent years. Pablo 2019, Epsilon 2020, Martin 2022, Don 2023 were all expected to not amount to much at first but all became hurricanes. Based on the initial forecast Isaac might be able to join them.

At least we finally broke the I curse this year. But Isaac has somehow made it this far without getting retired so I guess it's not too surprising

At this point I think Isaac is immune to the I curse lol, probably the luckiest name on all the naming lists. Every other I name has gone through at least two generations, yet Isaac will still be with us in 2030. And the name has certainly had some close calls too, with 2012 being overshadowed by Sandy - and if just one of the shortie candidates had gotten named earlier this year, Isaac would have been headed toward retirement since the name would have been given to Helene. And of course, the last time we didn't have an impactful and destructive I storm was Isaac 2018.

List 1: Isabel Ida Imani
List 2: Ivan Igor Ian Idris
List 3: Irene Irma Idalia
List 4: Isaac
List 5: Iris Ingrid Imelda
List 6: Isidore Ike Isaias

[CrazyC83]

One thing I wonder: how many ships could get in the path, and what kind of data we might get from them?

[kevin]

Forecast now calls for cat 1 peak intensity. With 98L likely also becoming a low-end hurricane we could end September with 10/7/2 as the season numbers, with still a potentially very active October ahead of us. Not so bad for a season which looked like a total bust 2 weeks ago.

[ChrisH-UK]

Isaac now in daylight looks a lot better, actually looks like it maybe trying to form an eye, cat 1 might be do able.

Source - https://col.st/MwzO9

[galaxy401]

With that eye feature I feel like Isaac is a little stronger then they're giving it.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Isaac now in daylight looks a lot better, actually looks like it maybe trying to form an eye, cat 1 might be do able.

Source - https://col.st/MwzO9

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5812/XAP9b6.gif [/url]

Looking great.

[Sciencerocks]