ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Woah. I haven’t checked in on this system in a couple days because I thought it was expected to be a frontal low or maybe a TS. Things have escalated quickly.

A good rule of thumb: never sleep on anything in the Gulf.

[StPeteMike]

I don’t see anything in the next few days to limit development of future Milton. Unlike Helene, who took her time getting going and bombed out later in stage before landfall, I think this one will bomb out earlier and then hold steady while moving east to northeast.

[GCANE]

That whole front idea has pretty much dissipated on GFS.
A very minor UL trof is forecast to develop on approach to landfall.
Looks like it will be a minor disruption,

[Zonacane]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1292125126279696415/1728136981919.png?ex=670298cc&is=6701474c&hm=6deb7ace67c7c1c208641e9947d434cf1f9e673906a7755c4aabc5d3d37ded43& Here it is. Probably the only analog. 1859 Tampa Hurricane. The only other storm that's even close that I know of is Mitch.

Wilma

[cycloneye]

The main message here is to prepare from now.

[floridasun]

let not put people tampa all worry ok models may change from now to wed dont want see supermarket go crazy or gas station this early in game i seen gfs few other point toward tampa area or bit south let take break see other run going do

[toad strangler]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1292125126279696415/1728136981919.png?ex=670298cc&is=6701474c&hm=6deb7ace67c7c1c208641e9947d434cf1f9e673906a7755c4aabc5d3d37ded43& Here it is. Probably the only analog. 1859 Tampa Hurricane. The only other storm that's even close that I know of is Mitch.

Wilma

No Wilma came from a much different origin. Not a good analog IMO

[Cat5James]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1292125126279696415/1728136981919.png?ex=670298cc&is=6701474c&hm=6deb7ace67c7c1c208641e9947d434cf1f9e673906a7755c4aabc5d3d37ded43& Here it is. Probably the only analog. 1859 Tampa Hurricane. The only other storm that's even close that I know of is Mitch.

Wilma

Wilma did not come from the BoC. very different angle of approach

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

let not put people tampa all worry ok models may change from now to wed dont want see supermarket go crazy or gas station this early in game i seen gfs few other point toward tampa area or bit south let take break see other run going do

People in Tampa should absolutely be making preparations.

[Keldeo1997]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1292125126279696415/1728136981919.png?ex=670298cc&is=6701474c&hm=6deb7ace67c7c1c208641e9947d434cf1f9e673906a7755c4aabc5d3d37ded43& Here it is. Probably the only analog. 1859 Tampa Hurricane. The only other storm that's even close that I know of is Mitch.

Wilma

I was pointing out storms that formed (or reformed) in the BOC and then hit Florida. Wilma would not meet that.

[Teban54]

With a 95 kt first advisory for TD 14, I have to pull out the list of most aggressive first advisories yet again, originally compiled by Kevin.

It's absolutely insane that 2024 has already put 6 TCs on the list (Beryl, Ernesto, Helene, Kirk, Leslie, TD 14), even though Ernesto and possibly Leslie have underperformed. On the other hand, it could also suggest the NHC has become more aggressive with first advisories in recent years, either due to improved model accuracy and confidence, or for better effectiveness at public messaging.

As of October 5, 2024, here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).

120 kt
2023 - Lee

105 kt
2024 - Kirk
2023 - Nigel

100 kt
2021 - Sam
2010 - Tomas

95 kt
2024 - TD 14
2024 - Helene
2024 - Ernesto
2022 - Ian
2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2012 - Isaac
2010 - Danielle
2005 - Philippe
2004 - Karl

90 kt
2024 - Beryl
2021 - Larry
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean

85 kt
2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Katia
2010 - Igor
2010 - Earl
2006 - Helene
2005 - Wilma

80 kt
2024 - Leslie
2022 - Danielle
2020 - Teddy
2019 - Jerry
2017 - Maria
2017 - Irma
2016 - Gaston
2012 - Leslie
2005 - Rita
2004 - Earl
1999 - Emily

I may want to add the verified intensities at the specified time frames later, but can't do it now.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 1859 Tampa Hurricane (I had to look this far back in time, lol) is probably our best analog. Except potentially more powerful. This kind of track, where a storm forms in the Bay of Campeche and moves eastward to hit the west coast of Florida, is very rare.

[GCANE]

Looks like it will pick up a high TPW feed from the EPAC while in the BOC.
Once it gets in the E GOM, it'll pick up a high CAPE feed from the W Carb.
Will also be over the Lopp Current which has recharged from Helene.
Only limiting factor as a see for now from becoming a top-scale cane is that it appears that it will not be under an anti-cyclone.

[underthwx]

let not put people tampa all worry ok models may change from now to wed dont want see supermarket go crazy or gas station this early in game i seen gfs few other point toward tampa area or bit south let take break see other run going do

People in Tampa should absolutely be making preparations.

I absolutely agree....the clock is ticking...
this cyclone is coming...now is the time to prepare...if im in tampa...or the west coast of Florida....I am preparing now...not watching models....with all due respects....please note on the NHC forecast track....they illustrate the cyclone crossing the Florida peninsula as a hurricane....and maintaining hurricane intensity...as it exits into the Atlantic...that to me is info enough that this cyclone will be powerful....

[Zonacane]

What is the expected storm surge for a category 4 in Tampa?

[Hurricane Mike]

Noon video on the system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QlQt7kOXgs

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1842587513128726528

Here you go, this is why this storm formed so much quicker than anticipated. Topography enhanced vorticity and well placed low level jet.

[aspen]

Looks like it will pick up a high TPW feed from the EPAC while in the BOC.
Once it gets in the E GOM, it'll pick up a high CAPE feed from the W Carb.
Will also be over the Lopp Current which has recharged from Helene.
Only limiting factor as a see for now from becoming a top-scale cane is that it appears that it will not be under an anti-cyclone.

Its UL setup isn’t great. It’ll be tracking on the south end of some extremely strong (>50 kt) UL flow, which might help with some ventilation, but could very easily shear the system to death.

How much this helps or harms Milton will probably depend on the exact latitude it tracks. HWRF shows shear kicking in as Milton approaches Florida and gains latitude.

EDIT: not 50+ kt, I was looking at the wrong graphic on Tropical Tidbits. Still fairly strong near-horizontal flow, doesn’t seem like a good setup for ventilation regardless.

[SecondBreakfast]

let not put people tampa all worry ok models may change from now to wed dont want see supermarket go crazy or gas station this early in game i seen gfs few other point toward tampa area or bit south let take break see other run going do

People in Tampa should absolutely be making preparations.

I absolutely agree....the clock is ticking...
this cyclone is coming...now is the time to prepare...if im in tampa...or the west coast of Florida....I am preparing now...not watching models....with all due respects....please note on the NHC forecast track....they illustrate the cyclone crossing the Florida peninsula as a hurricane....and maintaining hurricane intensity...as it exits into the Atlantic...that to me is info enough that this cyclone will be powerful....

What are the steering patterns like? Will this be a threat to the east coast after it ejects into the Atlantic?

[toad strangler]

Michael Lowry nailed this. He has been talking about the E PAC energy cross over possibility for some time. Saying models might have this all wrong honing in on the wrong pc of energy. That’s how you get such a quick sudden change in the models. They finally figured it out.