ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

There's little doubt it is a depression.
1. Closed LLC
2. sustain convection
3. plenty of model support

[Zonacane]

Bombs away

[Kazmit]

Guessing NHC will go 100%/100% for 2pm and then a first advisory at 5pm.

[Zonacane]

@GCANE LLC looks like its getting sucked under those rotating towers. Looks well anchored under that ULAC

[Tireman4]

 https://x.com/TropicsWatch/status/1806702668456374402

I wonder what Wxman 57 thinks about this forecast?

[floridasun]

i think nhc waiting for wind data from sat before their say it td or ts

[wxman57]

 https://x.com/TropicsWatch/status/1806702668456374402

I wonder what Wxman 57 thinks about this forecast?

I'm in agreement with that forecast.

[Tireman4]

 https://x.com/TropicsWatch/status/1806702668456374402

I wonder what Wxman 57 thinks about this forecast?

I'm in agreement with that forecast.

Well, if it is good enough for you, then it is good enough for me. Shall I have heaters sent to your house this 4th?

[wxman57]

I wonder what Wxman 57 thinks about this forecast?

I'm in agreement with that forecast.

Well, if it is good enough for you, then it is good enough for me. Shall I have heaters sent to your house this 4th?

Yes, please. It's 79 degrees in my office and I'm getting cold. Only 89 degrees outside. Brrrr! Check your PMs.

[Tireman4]

I'm in agreement with that forecast.

Well, if it is good enough for you, then it is good enough for me. Shall I have heaters sent to your house this 4th?

Yes, please. It's 79 degrees in my office and I'm getting cold. Only 89 degrees outside. Brrrr! Check your PMs.

I did. Lol.

[Hurricane2022]

[ConvergenceZone]

Center is on the east side of the convection due to easterly shear. I noticed that the consensus models (TVCC/TVCN) have trended farther south in the 12Z update. Models indicate it could get close to hurricane strength as it passes Barbados, but all models indicate weakening by the time it passes south of Jamaica next Wednesday. There are also indications of a south of due west track beyond day 5, which would take the center into Honduras or Belize next Friday. I don't see any significant threat to the Gulf.

That's awesome wxman! I love the tropics, but it's too early for worrying about a hurricane in the USA. I'm sure there will be PLENTY of them to worry about later this season. Now I can go back to work without obsessing over the board....... Again, thanks for the very positive news regarding this disturbance! (at least for the USA mainland that is).

[abajan]

https://imageshack.com/i/poBG6RY7g

I think we can safely assume that's no longer a tropical wave.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd personally upgrade this to TD2 at 5pm, but obviously the NHC's call. Splitting hairs at this point, because it's obvious this is going to become a tropical cyclone.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1806730889839382719

[Beef Stew]

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Per the 2pm update.

[chaser1]

Looking good with quite a brisk westward motion; my eye puts a COC at about 9N and 41W

[lolitx]

I'm one of those home lurkers/worriers - come to Storm2K when its the tropics season. Its always interesting to read all the discussions but there are only a few people I totally trust with forecasts or their opinions. Wxman57 is at the top of the list. Been lurking/supporting since 2007.

[NDG]

f not mentioned, I think one big reason why 95L is developing is because of average to below average Saharan Dust so far this season across the Atlantic basin which is usually accompanied by very dry mid levels with it. Definitely 95L is taking advantage of much better mid level moisture.