ATL: MILTON - Models

[Xyls]

Wrong thread.

[SFLcane]

[LCfromFL]

Hmmm.. Orlando newspaper says the NHC has indicated a major hurricane is possible. Hmmmm…

Fear mongering? Or, fact they actually said that?

https://postimg.cc/hhNTfNH5

They’ve kept the door open but the 11 am has Cat 2…. but literally 1 mph difference between 2 and 3.

The 11 am NHC Key Messages: “ The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula mid week.”

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

https://i.postimg.cc/D0yLxK9s/comaps.jpg

That would be the best outcome..or maybe even a little further south. Mostly swamps

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.postimg.cc/D0yLxK9s/comaps.jpg

i’ve forgotten about the COAMPS… now i know why

[SFLcane]

[boca]

https://i.postimg.cc/pTB19RQn/vvvv.jpg

The NHC is going with the further north track Tampa to Daytona track due to a more intense storm.

[gatorcane]

Yike GFS and for the Tampa area:

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS Ensembles are pretty tightly clustered around the Tampa area and in decent agreement with the GFS OP:

[toad strangler]

12Z GFS Ensembles are pretty tightly clustered around the Tampa area and in decent agreement with the GFS OP:

https://i.postimg.cc/tJ4bhSWW/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh42-114.gif

That’s not tightly clustered at landfall. That’s a large spread of FL west coastline.

[Nuno]

The next two days will make things quite clear. The GFS and hurricane models are calling for rapid gains in latitude as soon as it gets going east. ICON, CMC not as drastic.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET has shifted north some and a little stronger, comes into Naples and exits around Jupiter. Looks like "stronger = more north" for this storm:

[aspen]

12z HMON and HAFS-A/B have a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. However, it looks fairly sloppy. HAFS simulated IR views are not impressive and the HMON has possible dry air entrainment.

[fci]

https://i.postimg.cc/pTB19RQn/vvvv.jpg

The NHC is going with the further north track Tampa to Daytona track due to a more intense storm.

I thought the major determining factor of how far north this goes was going to be the frontal trough.

[redingtonbeach]

https://i.postimg.cc/D0yLxK9s/comaps.jpg

That Navy model has done exceptionally well on intensity over the years. Location I don’t know how it has done.

[eastcoastFL]

US Navy Tropical Cyclone map TD14

[eastcoastFL]

12Z UKMET has shifted north some and a little stronger, comes into Naples and exits around Jupiter. Looks like "stronger = more north" for this storm:

https://i.postimg.cc/fR93PKgY/floop-ukmet-2024100512-sfcwind-mslp-gom.gif

A stronger storm goes north BUT the heavy shear is also north. So either the shear is expected to lift out or a stronger storm could weaken as it turns NE if the shear is still there, right?

[aspen]

HAFS-B peaks at 145 kt/919 mbar on Tuesday night despite increasing shear.

HWRF begins RI much sooner than the HAFS models. Takes about a day to organize, then goes bananas north of the Yucatan. It’s also the furthest south of the three models, which keeps it away from the shear and gives it a little more time.

[Pelicane]

12z Euro looks a bit stronger as well.

[ConvergenceZone]

HAFS-B peaks at 145 kt/919 mbar on Tuesday night despite increasing shear.

HWRF begins RI much sooner than the HAFS models. Takes about a day to organize, then goes bananas north of the Yucatan. It’s also the furthest south of the three models, which keeps it away from the shear and gives it a little more time.

Hurricanes this season haven't really cared much about shear. I think it was Francine that suppose to have weakened quite a bit due to shear. The shear was there, but the storm didn't weaken. I just no longer trust shear maps. The storm is going to do what it's going to do.