ATL: MILTON - Models

[TheHurricaneGod]

GFS is 960 mbars by hour 60.

[kevin]

12z GFS going MH, 950 mb at 81 hours.

[ronjon]

12z GFS at 944 mb into coastal Hernando County 2 pm Wednesday.

Oh wait was looking at 06z. Nevermind.

[Cat5James]

12z GFS at 944 mb into coastal Hernando County 2 pm Wednesday.

Thats as bad as it gets for storm surge in Tampa Bay

[AutoPenalti]

Wow. GFS.

Shifts further north.

[shah83]

The most disturbing thing is that recent models have Milton as a decent size system compared to the original looks that had a pretty small system.

[caneseddy]

GFS major hurricane landfall Tampa Bay Wednesday

[ColdMiser123]

GFS is 948 mb into Clearwater. Right front quadrant into Tampa Bay. Close to the worst case scenario for that area verbatim.

[redingtonbeach]

Hmmm..

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS, Clearwater, exit Daytona Beach

[StPeteMike]

Hmmm.. Orlando newspaper says the NHC has indicated a major hurricane is possible. Hmmmm…

Fear mongering? Or, fact they actually said that?

https://postimg.cc/hhNTfNH5

They’ve kept the door open but the 11 am has Cat 2…. but literally 1 mph difference between 2 and 3.

[MJGarrison]

Hmmm..

I got that Sentinel Alert too.

NHC 11 AM discussion says this:

The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies a little below the regional hurricane models.


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[ronjon]

GFS is 948 mb into Clearwater. Right front quadrant into Tampa Bay. Close to the worst case scenario for that area verbatim.

Yes doesn't get any worse than that for coastal storm surge and tornadic like wind. Fortunately it's 96 hrs out. Let's see where the 12z Euro lands.

[ROCK]

GFS is 948 mb into Clearwater. Right front quadrant into Tampa Bay. Close to the worst case scenario for that area verbatim.

We have been talking about this very scenario for years now. Let hope it doesn’t transpire.

[shah83]

These are terrible runs, and there isn't a lot of scope for changes in the runs. Also, I'm inclined to bet that the GFS operational is more right than the further south Euro, Icon, etc models. If the GFS is right, there is going to be an unmitigated crisis.

[aspen]

Based on the simulated IR filter on Tropical Tidbits, looks like shear starts impacting Milton around Tuesday afternoon/evening.

[ronjon]

These are terrible runs, and there isn't a lot of scope for changes in the runs. Also, I'm inclined to bet that the GFS operational is more right than the further south Euro, Icon, etc models. If the GFS is right, there is going to be an unmitigated crisis.

There is still some uncertainty on ultimate strength and landfall. Average track error is 150 miles at 4 days. Agree the synoptics are kinda locked in (it's going to landfall somewhere on the Florida west coast) but to me anywhere from Citrus County to Naples is within the potential landfall location.

[SFLcane]

Wow. GFS.

Shifts further north.

actually south.

[SFLcane]

12z CMC in near Fort Myers..

[SFLcane]

.