ATL: MILTON - Models

[jhpigott]

18z Euro looks to go between Sarasota and Bradenton.

Is that S or N of the 12z? Where does the 18z Euro exit the east coast

[Travorum]

18z hurricane model landfalls:

HWRF:


HMON:


HAFS-A:


HAFS-B:

[CronkPSU]

geeeeeezzzz that is crazy consistency of a tampa bay landfall with those hurricane models

[SconnieCane]

Wasn't the HMON the weakest of the hurricane models with Milton for a long time; now it's going nuclear while the HAFS duo is backing off after Milton effectively already verified their intensities?

[NDG]

The only reason why I think the Euro remains further south than the GFS and ICON is that it shows landfall a whole 6 hours later than the ICON and 4 hours later than the GFS. Which one is right, we shall see over the next few runs.

[StPeteMike]

geeeeeezzzz that is crazy consistency of a tampa bay landfall with those hurricane models

Can someone educate me on what’s different between these set of models and others like the Euro, ICON, and GFS.

I was always under the impression they took in more information with recon and atmospheric data compared to the latter, but may be wrong.

[Steve]

geeeeeezzzz that is crazy consistency of a tampa bay landfall with those hurricane models

Can someone educate me on what’s different between these set of models and others like the Euro, ICON, and GFS.

I was always under the impression they took in more information with recon and atmospheric data compared to the latter, but may be wrong.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane-mod ... rediction/

Scroll down below the scientists

[Poonwalker]

geeeeeezzzz that is crazy consistency of a tampa bay landfall with those hurricane models

Can someone educate me on what’s different between these set of models and others like the Euro, ICON, and GFS.

I was always under the impression they took in more information with recon and atmospheric data compared to the latter, but may be wrong.

I read up on it a couple years ago and basically the Hafs models are like the GFS on steroids. This is part of the dissertation:

HAFS uses the FV3 — the same dynamic core as the U.S. Global Forecast System — it has a unified starting point when initiated for hurricane prediction and also integrates with ocean and wave models as underlying inputs. The current standalone regional hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, each have their own starting point for modeling the atmosphere. Leveraging the FV3 in HAFS reduces overlapping efforts, making the NOAA modeling portfolio more consistent and efficient.

HAFS is also the first new major forecast model implementation using NOAA’s updated weather and climate supercomputers, which were installed last summer. HAFS would not be possible without the speed and power of these new supercomputers, called the Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System 2 (WCOSS2

[StPeteMike]

geeeeeezzzz that is crazy consistency of a tampa bay landfall with those hurricane models

Can someone educate me on what’s different between these set of models and others like the Euro, ICON, and GFS.

I was always under the impression they took in more information with recon and atmospheric data compared to the latter, but may be wrong.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane-mod ... rediction/

Scroll down below the scientists

Always count on you, Steve! Thanks!

[Flwxguy86]

I wonder, Do they move the cone back north at 11pm, These spaghetti models are pretty tight but they do appear to be more like bradenton, sunshine skyway area.

[caneman]

Zoom earth still well west of track for several hours now. People made a big deal about the ese jog yet not a single person talking about this. Thinking a North shift possible at 11

[Tekken_Guy]

I wonder, Do they move the cone back north at 11pm, These spaghetti models are pretty tight but they do appear to be more like bradenton, sunshine skyway area.


https://i.imgur.com/AQva8hL.png

These models are from this morning.

[Flwxguy86]

I wonder, Do they move the cone back north at 11pm, These spaghetti models are pretty tight but they do appear to be more like bradenton, sunshine skyway area.


https://i.imgur.com/AQva8hL.png

These models are from this morning.

my bad didn't remember that 00z is a different date.

[NDG]

Here are the latest 0z early models.
These are a joke, the way they get adjusted to supposedly correct their short term bias when in fact their longer range track hasn't changed is mind boggling.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/mattdevittwx/status/1843816227828842596

[Travorum]

Here are the latest 0z early models.
These are a joke, the way they get adjusted to supposedly correct their short term bias when in fact their longer range track hasn't changed is mind boggling.

https://i.imgur.com/dYi7gp5.gif

Yeah HWRF and HAFS-A are interpolated 12 hours here, I would take those tracks with a grain of salt.

[Lance]

 https://x.com/mattdevittwx/status/1843816227828842596

Aren’t those the ensembles which are south of the operational as we saw a few hours ago? Also, the hurricane models are still north of there. Will see how it plays out from here I guess.

[caneman]

 https://x.com/mattdevittwx/status/1843816227828842596

If this verifies that's a massive error rate for the NHC in a short period of time. Still within the cone and why you dont focus on a line. Even still a very wild swing in a short period of time

[tolakram]

People posting the silly lines should know better IMO, each line is weighted equal and they certainly are NOT equal. If any of you in harms way believe some of these and get smacked, and survive, don't tell us how you didn't know.

And it appears we don't like the Icon anymore either. This should be your first sign that logic has left the building. /scolding complete

[Lance]

People posting the silly lines should know better IMO, each line is weighted equal and they certainly are NOT equal. If any of you in harms way believe some of these and get smacked, and survive, don't tell us how you didn't know.

And it appears we don't like the Icon anymore either. This should be your first sign that logic has left the building. /scolding complete

Click bait for the met maybe? I recall someone saying follow the Icon for this a while back and it seems to be doing well. Guess we’ll see in 24 hours or so.