ATL: MILTON - Models

[Lance]

This is where following the NHC is going to be the best bet here. The models are usually a tick north/west of where it actually landfalls. So the GFS/ICON showing Tampa credits their forecast track.

What about Hafs, Hmon, and HWRF. I have a feeling once one of those goes south the whole north propping with just cave in.

The 12Z already modeled the ESE move, so I don't foresee them making major moves either way, just my guess.

[StPeteMike]

This is where following the NHC is going to be the best bet here. The models are usually a tick north/west of where it actually landfalls. So the GFS/ICON showing Tampa credits their forecast track.

Not always true. GFS and I believe the ICON both had Helene about 80 miles to the east of NHC track over 24 hours before landfall if I remember correctly…. which was 2 weeks ago lol

But a short wobble now can have a large difference in eventual landfall. Sometimes the models this far out are worthless, sometimes they’re seeing something NHC is not.

[Flwxguy86]

I think there is a little to much cheerleading on social media with only a very slight change in the landfall, I think they literally moved the line 15 miles south, Milton could easily make that up on approach, I am watching WFLA's coverage and they seem to be acting as if Tampa is off the hook completely now and I just don't see it yet.

[Poonwalker]

This is where following the NHC is going to be the best bet here. The models are usually a tick north/west of where it actually landfalls. So the GFS/ICON showing Tampa credits their forecast track.

What about Hafs, Hmon, and HWRF. I have a feeling once one of those goes south the whole north propping with just cave in.

The 12Z already modeled the ESE move, so I don't foresee them making major moves either way, just my guess.

I just looked at it and the bloody thing is actually crossing 23N ahead of schedule now in regards to the Hafs model.

[Nimbus]

Zoomed in 18z ICON some people don't like all the sudden.

https://i.imgur.com/fqUpg7x.gif

18Z GFS fattened the steering ridge a little which resulted in a similar track.
Recon chose this time to fly an upper air survey over the gulf which should be in the model runs tonight.
They always seem to improve the accuracy after that.

[NDG]

Zoomed in 18z ICON some people don't like all the sudden.

https://i.imgur.com/fqUpg7x.gif

18Z GFS fattened the steering ridge a little which resulted in a similar track.
Recon chose this time to fly an upper air survey over the gulf which should be in the model runs tonight.
They always seem to improve the accuracy after that.

I don't question the global models very little within 36 hours of landfall, and so far they have had a fairly good track record so far in the GOM with Helene and Francine in that time range.

[jlauderdal]

I think there is a little to much cheerleading on social media with only a very slight change in the landfall, I think they literally moved the line 15 miles south, Milton could easily make that up on approach, I am watching WFLA's coverage and they seem to be acting as if Tampa is off the hook completely now and I just don't see it yet.

It makes a huge difference on surge, every mile is a life changer for tampa bay so you can understand their thirst for good news.

[Poonwalker]

Zoomed in 18z ICON some people don't like all the sudden.

https://i.imgur.com/fqUpg7x.gif

18Z GFS fattened the steering ridge a little which resulted in a similar track.
Recon chose this time to fly an upper air survey over the gulf which should be in the model runs tonight.
They always seem to improve the accuracy after that.

I don't question the global models very little within 36 hours of landfall, and so far they have had a fairly good track record so far in the GOM with Helene and Francine in that time range.

So did NHC weigh in the consensus and shift south? They certainly didn’t just account a shift from the globals by drawing a line from the SE jog since the globals seemed to have already accounted for that deviation in their runs.

[Flwxguy86]

I think there is a little to much cheerleading on social media with only a very slight change in the landfall, I think they literally moved the line 15 miles south, Milton could easily make that up on approach, I am watching WFLA's coverage and they seem to be acting as if Tampa is off the hook completely now and I just don't see it yet.

It makes a huge difference on surge, every mile is a life changer for tampa bay so you can understand their thirst for good news.

I am perfectly fine with it going south of a Tampa but I just think it's a little early to jump on a southern solution as gospel right now and I see a lot of local mets acting as if the threat to Tampa is gone, All it takes is a little wobble back west or a sharper pull north and it still comes to Tampa. They're are still people who are waiting to evacuate and this could give them false hope to stay behind.

[Emmett_Brown]

Lots of chatter, where/when is the 18z Gfs landfall? (Can’t get tidbits to load, thanks)

[caneseddy]

Lots of chatter, where/when is the 18z Gfs landfall? (Can’t get tidbits to load, thanks)

18z GFS was into Tampa Bay like the Icon..

[kevin]

Lots of chatter, where/when is the 18z Gfs landfall? (Can’t get tidbits to load, thanks)

It goes through the bay, see the post below:

https://i.imgur.com/ifwNDeM.gif

[floridasun]

gfs still have tampa under gun

[Poonwalker]

Hafs-b is over Anna Maria Island. Hmon is Saint Pete, Euro if Longboat key. Hafs-a is Anna Maria Island also. That’s scary close to a Tampa catastrophe.

[caneseddy]

Hafs-b is over Anna Maria Island. Hmon is Saint Pete, Euro if Longboat key. Hafs-a is Anna Maria Island also. That’s scary close to a Tampa catastrophe.

Icon- Tampa Bay
GFS: Tampa Bay
HAFS-A and B: Anna Maria Island
HMON: St. Petersburg

So much for a south shift…

[chris_fit]

18z Euro can't come soon enough

[Emmett_Brown]

Sigh, thank you, yep, I was hoping for some sort of turn

[Poonwalker]

Hafs-b is over Anna Maria Island. Hmon is Saint Pete, Euro if Longboat key. Hafs-a is Anna Maria Island also. That’s scary close to a Tampa catastrophe.

Icon- Tampa Bay
GFS: Tampa Bay
HAFS-A and B: Anna Maria Island
HMON: St. Petersburg

So much for a south shift…

The Hafs twins are identical for the first time

[SconnieCane]

Hafs-b is over Anna Maria Island. Hmon is Saint Pete, Euro if Longboat key.

Seems to be a growing consensus that:

A.) There's a higher likelihood than not that Tampa Bay avoids getting right-front-quadded with a worst-case surge scenario. However, it's far from a guarantee. Such an outcome would be well within the forecast margin of error.

B.) Even if the center does go south of the bay, it's likely to be waaaaay too close for comfort and will bring significant wind, rain and surge impacts to a large part, if not all of the Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater/Bradenton area. It's impossible to determine at this point where within that area receives the heaviest impacts. Therefore, no one within that area should be taking a victory lap or heading home from their evacuation spot because they read on the Internet that "the cone shifted south" or whatever. At the coast, the 5PM cone goes from about Crystal River to North Naples, and that's just the range of uncertainty for the center track. It says right at the top of the graphic, "Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone."

Disclaimer: I'm not a professional meteorologist, just a guy who likes tracking hurricanes and is a chaser (with a mediocre at best success rate) of land-based severe convective weather.

[chris_fit]

18z Euro looks to go between Sarasota and Bradenton.