ATL: MILTON - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

Jeez.. 12z Euro 6am Thurs still offshore.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Jeez.. 12z Euro 6am Thurs still offshore.

12z Euro Bradenton to Cocoa exit. Inital landfall 12z Thurs

[CronkPSU]

Euro hits the breaks right around Tampa Bay and lingers a bit before heading ENE thru Orlando and leaving by Titusville/Cocoa

don't see any massive weakening before landfall either

[aspen]

12z HAFS models show another EWRC attempt tonight. That large band north of the core wraps around the southern end and starts choking it off, and combines with increasing shear to quickly weaken Milton. I think they may be wrong because comparison to current imagery suggests they’re overdoing that band, and the HWRF doesn’t show this.

[tolakram]

[jhpigott]

Jeez.. 12z Euro 6am Thurs still offshore.

12z Euro Bradenton to Cocoa exit. Inital landfall 12z Thurs

Interesting that a number of the models are slowing things down/pushing back landfall time. Also interesting how this slow down has not caused any significant model track shifts . . . yet

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[CronkPSU]

these hurricane models and Euro are all near worst case scenario...we gotta pray the shear takes a hold of it cause it is gonna cause extreme damage to some very populated areas on the Gulf Coast

[tolakram]

[AtlanticWind]

With the seemingly due east movement I am wondering
if we could see a southern model shift this evening.

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

Jeez.. 12z Euro 6am Thurs still offshore.

12z Euro Bradenton to Cocoa exit. Inital landfall 12z Thurs

Little more S on the Fl east coast compared to 00z...

[NDG]

12z Euro zoomed in, landfall Longboat Key Bradenton/Sarasota then ENE towards Melbourne/Cocoa Beach.

[floridasun]

when new Ensembles come out see if keep sifting south? like fort myers area
?

[Soluna16]

Concerning trend with the jet streak over Texas lifting north the last few runs. Hoping that shear doesn't decrease before landfall.

[Steve]

when new Ensembles come out see if keep sifting south? like fort myers area
?

GEFS and GEPS are available. EPS usually comes out later but people with paid access or subscriptions get it earlier.

They have better graphics out there than Levi's, but

GEFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00812&fh=0

GEPS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00800&fh=0

FWIW I never knew the GEPS was run by the JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency. Guess I should have known that all along.

[Steve]

Concerning trend with the jet streak over Texas lifting north the last few runs. Hoping that shear doesn't decrease before landfall.

Definitely delivering a kick on the GFS but it looks like it's oriented in a way that will not tear up Milton at all - maybe the NW side near landfall?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=42

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=42

[floridasun]

when new Ensembles come out see if keep sifting south? like fort myers area
?

GEFS and GEPS are available. EPS usually comes out later but people with paid access or subscriptions get it earlier.

They have better graphics out there than Levi's, but

GEFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00812&fh=0

GEPS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00800&fh=0

FWIW I never knew the GEPS was run by the JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency. Guess I should have known that all along.

are their lastest ? when new run come out? i seen one post their now