ATL: DEBBY - Models

[TomballEd]

Hafs A and b:

A didn't get lost this time but both struggled with genesis.
HafsA loops and stalls near the Big Bend and never leaves north Florida for the rest of the run.
https://i.imgur.com/118hbDI.png
https://i.imgur.com/4c2gAns.png


HafsB, faster, right of prior run. But stalls here for about 24 hours before moving slightly further north, but still in Florida (Just south of GA border) by hour 117 the drifts back closer to the Gulf/Big Bend by the end of the run on 0z Wed.
https://i.imgur.com/fFer68a.png

Dr. Andy Hazelton, one of the HAFS developers at HRD, has a pinned tweet saying the high res hurricane models are not reliable before a coherent center forms. With caveats of no coherent center having formed yet, the trend of the models at 0Z is further E with less time over water, and any stall happens over the Atlantic. Intensity on the models have also trended down. Does anybody know how to find the SHIPS run with Euro input? NHC mentions it from time to time, it exists. It may be like the old FSU Super Ensemble, not for public consumption.

[SFLcane]

06z gfs goes over keys and near fort Myers up the west coast of Florida.

[jlauderdal]

06z gfs goes over keys and near Fort Myers up the west coast of Florida.

Trending east, but it's the op, so we need to be careful in this situation. I have the pumps ready to go. Tracking is one thing, but where rain sets up is far more difficult to predict. We have pwats going to at least 2.3 so more than ample juice and plenty of lift to make flooding rains anywhere in sofla. Still, 60 days to go to get to Oct 1(oct busiest month on average for FL), so there is a long way to go for Floridians.

[SFLcane]

06z gfs goes over keys and near Fort Myers up the west coast of Florida.

Trending east, but it's the op, so we need to be careful in this situation. I have the pumps ready to go. Tracking is one thing, but where rain sets up is far more difficult to predict. We have pwats going to at least 2.3 so more than ample juice and plenty of lift to make flooding rains anywhere in sofla. Still, 60 days to go to get to Oct 1(oct busiest month on average for FL), so there is a long way to go for Floridians.

The trend is east since last night. Gefs has a good chunk over the westcoast heading north.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS

[robbielyn]

GFS tampa st pete and really weak hopefully this pans out and be just a rainmaker

[BobHarlem]

6z earlies were all concentrated between Perry and Bradenton, UK met moved into that group as well. TVCN is Cedar Key. Although watch for that initial center point to change because Cuba.



Today is the model test versus Cuba.

[toad strangler]

6z Euro into Cedar Key with what is probably a Tropical Storm.

[robbielyn]

It's always sloppy when its progged to hit north west coast always. Which I am thankful for. Thats why its been over a 100 years since we got hit with a hurricane. Hurricanes like panhandle and s fl.

[BobHarlem]

Shift right on the 12z earlies TVCN over St. Pete.

Gonna call out that this is based on the 12z best track, which may be too far north (wait and see).

[pcolaman]

Shift right on may the 12z earlies TVCN over St. Pete.

Gonna call out that this is based on the 12z best track, which may be too far north (wait and see).

https://i.imgur.com/1lMEqHT.png

Agree that it's to far south. The shredded has done it's job so far. Will be interesting to see how the storm reacts once it clear Cuba tonight.

[cycloneye]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Expect the consensus to shift quite a bit once the LLC develops, which will in turn have large implications on intensity.

[SFLcane]

Another bump east…

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

18Z GFS through 96 hours. Nearly 200 miles ENE of the 12Z run so far.
https://i.ibb.co/R2yZW8q/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-96.gif

That’s better news for Tampa area. Seems to move in and out quick and is just mostly a rainmaker as opposed to stalling out along the coast. Hopefully it then moves out to sea.

i dont know we could probably use a bit more rain

[Jelmergraaff]

Here's the - perhaps somewhat outdated - overview of the 00z AI-model runs. From top-left to bottom-right: AIFS, FourCastNet, GraphCast and PanguWeather. All of them have 97L making landfall somewhere between Spring Hill and Ochlockonee Bay in about 60 hours. The same holds for AIFS 06z. Please ignore the intensities. Charts are from ECMWF.

Edit: And at +120 hours, so Wednesday at 00 UTC, almost all of them show 97L (or future Debby) on or just off the coast of the Carolina's.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

[ronjon]

Interesting that NHC has the eastern edge of their red shaded area barely touching the west coast of FL in their TWO. Normally you'd pick the center of the shaded area as the most likely track, which in this case is the east-central GOM. Probably reflecting some uncertainty in the eventual track since we don't really know where the LLC will establish itself.

[redingtonbeach]

Not digging NAM’s projection