ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

When it comes to the panhandle and big bend areas of FL, we do not need much wind to make a very big impact right now.

We’ve had a very active rainy season and many lakes, ponds and rivers are high. They will crest in many areas with a large tropical rain event. The ground is currently saturated and many trees will easily uproot with even TD sustained winds. Most power lines are above ground in this region.

Even a TD in this region right now with enough rain will cause widespread flooding, downed trees and power outages.

The good news? My cousin leads a crew of lineman out of TX. [color=#BF0000]The call was given yesterday for crews to station in Lake City this weekend.

[/color]

Now THAT's the kind of "inside information" that is useful!

Thank you for that. It gives us a glimpse into what tptb are thinking is possible.

[BobHarlem]

[floridasun]

https://i.imgur.com/9C8QfcJ.jpeg

so keywest may get ts wind?

[REDHurricane]

After painstakingly staring at this loop for waaaay too long, this is approximately where I think the center of vorticity might be trying to consolidate:

[FLLurker32]

When it comes to the panhandle and big bend areas of FL, we do not need much wind to make a very big impact right now.

We’ve had a very active rainy season and many lakes, ponds and rivers are high. They will crest in many areas with a large tropical rain event. The ground is currently saturated and many trees will easily uproot with even TD sustained winds. Most power lines are above ground in this region.

Even a TD in this region right now with enough rain will cause widespread flooding, downed trees and power outages.

The good news? My cousin leads a crew of lineman out of TX. [color=#BF0000]The call was given yesterday for crews to station in Lake City this weekend.

[/color]

Now THAT's the kind of "inside information" that is useful!

Thank you for that. It gives us a glimpse into what tptb are thinking is possible.

Absolutely. It’s also just nice for anyone potentially impacted to know that help will be here on standby ready to get right to work. If anything changes, I’ll post here to let everyone know.

[Sciencerocks]

[floridasun]

look like low going take shape in area ne of Cuba and nw of Haiti if look cloud you see a bit spin that area let see go into se bahama area over night or go into cuba

[tiger_deF]

I think 97L has been favoring the southern lobes. The MLC is there, and it hasn’t produced the same level of convection as the Northern lobe since it has been over land for close to a day. The main reason the cloud formation is to the North is because of the substantial shear further south of the islands and the fact that it has been over land.

[Category5Kaiju]

Pretty favorable in the Gulf in terms of shear currently

Also, between Eta 2020, Elsa 2021, Ian, Idalia, and this storm, it really looks like recent years have been hotbeds for activity along the western part of the FL peninsula

[BobHarlem]

At the moment it looks like the area will be more along the S. Side of Cuba, but cycnical me will wake up in the morning and watch it be on the North side. Still looking at the various satellite flavors trying to figure out what this is going to do with it since exiting Haiti and while moving into Cuba tomorrow is going to be the thing tomorrow.



If I had to guess a spot, the area just south of Guantanamo Bay

[Nuno]

https://i.imgur.com/E1w3gcW.png

Pretty favorable in the Gulf in terms of shear currently

Also, between Eta 2020, Elsa 2021, Ian, Idalia, and this storm, it really looks like recent years have been hotbeds for activity along the western part of the FL peninsula

Don't forget Irma

[Hurrilurker]

Certainly looks like land interaction is going to keep a lid on it for most of its run.

[Jr0d]

https://i.imgur.com/9C8QfcJ.jpeg

so keywest may get ts wind?

I doubt we will see much sustained winds, but likely gusty winds in squalls. It does seem like the low will start consolidating near the Keys so it might make things interesting on Saturday.

A strengthening system seems to roar more than a weakening one..I figure if it's consolidating it will be hit or miss with the more intense squalls over the Florida straits and the intense squalls will be surprisingly intense to some.b

[OuterBanker]

At first this was a ms AL landfall. Then it was a flooding the state of Florida. I thought we had no concern. Now gfs has a st Pete Tampa land fall second land fall at Wilmington. CMC big bend second landfall Wilmington. Euro is kindest to all. Weak system that exits n FL GA and meanders back to cost. Icon (00z fri) agrees with gfs (odd bedfellows indeed ). Of course all will be different. Regardless I think Carolinas to Florida will get a soaking.

[ElectricStorm]

1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the
southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic. The wave is expected to move near or over
Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida
tonight or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of
Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of
Florida later today.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[chaser1]

Over all symmetry and organization has significantly improved during the past 12 hours. For the first time with this disturbance I am confident where the COC exists - 19.5 N 73.0 W, presently emerging off the West coast of Haiti. It will barely have more then a few hours over water before making landfall over E Cuba. It wouldn't shock me for NHC to tagging it a TD if it continues to organize.

[Craters]

https://i.imgur.com/9C8QfcJ.jpeg

so keywest may get ts wind?

I doubt we will see much sustained winds, but likely gusty winds in squalls. It does seem like the low will start consolidating near the Keys so it might make things interesting on Saturday.

A strengthening system seems to roar more than a weakening one..I figure if it's consolidating it will be hit or miss with the more intense squalls over the Florida straits and the intense squalls will be surprisingly intense to some.b

Jr0d — Sometimes I question your sanity but always admire your tenacity. Your living there, when more than 40% of the year you could be absolutely clobbered by Mother Nature, makes me feel like a wimp. We're about 25 miles from the Gulf, where the eyewall of "just" Caterogry 1 Beryl danced in our... well, you know..., and I'm on pins and needles from the beginning of June to the end of September, whether anything's heading this way or not. In the back of our minds, we're always expecting the least likely disaster to happen, even though we are 25 miles inland. You, on the other hand, are The Low Hanging Fruit — and by choice, you knucklehead!! God bless ya!!!

[caneman]

NHC now has development at 50/80% as of the 2 am advisory. Ahh, someone else posted it above.

[skillz305]

Anybody got educated guesses about where the “center” or lack of one is at this morning? Models need to know which side of Cuba it’s on!

[underthwx]

After painstakingly staring at this loop for waaaay too long, this is approximately where I think the center of vorticity might be trying to consolidate:

https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExeHNpbmcweThreTRwemhmYnE5Znd3MzlhNms3OTl1OGVlM2d4YmF3diZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/9ZaiEam9PoPNTlvNKG/giphy.gif

Hopefully the terrain of Cuba keeps 97L in check....yall stay prepared...