WPAC: Tropical Depression 17W

[Subtrop]

90W INVEST 240919 1200 20.6N 128.4E WPAC 15 1007

[Hayabusa]

Now low, GFS is the only one hyping it for days already despite only up to TS

ABPW10 PGTW 191530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191530Z-200600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190751ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/1901352ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 19SEP24 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SOULIK) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.9E, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM NORTHWEST OF DA NANG,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
(2) AT 19SEP24 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 122.0E, APPROXIMATELY 49 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SHANGHAI, CHINA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.1N
129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 507 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 191250Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKLY
DEFINED CENTER, WITH THE CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS SHARP CYCLONIC
TURNING AND A POSSIBLE ELONGATED CIRCULATION ADJACENT TO AN EXTENSIVE
SWATH OF 20-30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHICH COULD BE AIDING IN THE
DISTURBANCE'S SPIN-UP. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AT
THIS TIME INDICATING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN, WITH
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 200000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 21.2N 127.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NW 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

ABPW10 PGTW 200030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200030Z-200600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190751ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING AND B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 19SEP24 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SOULIK) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.9E, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM NORTHWEST OF DA NANG,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
(2) AT 19SEP24 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY 19 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
SHANGHAI, CHINA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 192100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.1N 129.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 404 NM
NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE
CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
(30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREATING A CONDUCIVE AREA FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL
AT THIS TIME INDICATING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN, WITH
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[MHC Tracking]

Not too far off from a TC. Just needs some more organized convection: