WPAC: YAGI - Post-Tropical

[shah83]

Man, Vietnam is about to have the worst natural disaster since whatever happened in Haiphong in the late 19th century...

[Hurricane2022]

This s*** is strengthening again. May God bless and help Vietnam.

[ElectricStorm]

12W YAGI 240907 0000 20.4N 108.1E WPAC 115 933

[CrazyC83]

There are millions of people who live in areas less than 10 feet above sea level. The storm surge could be downright horrific.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Gotta be one of the strongest, if not the strongest storm to hit northern Vietnam on record right? Just crazy that it's still able to get this strong after land interaction

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Definitely was a bit skepitcal the rapid weakening that was being forecast for Yagi, especially given the 30C waters and consistency of the models. Now it's poised to be Vietnam's strongest landfall on record. It looks like it's still strengthening.

Almost certain this would be the last time we would use "Yagi" for a storm. May God help Southern China and Vietnam.

[eastcoastFL]

At there any chasers or live streams on the ground?

[shah83]

I suppose people might like a link to the radar for the next several hours. Haiphong's time is about to start, or perhaps already has with incoming surge.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/vn/hanoi ... dar/353412

Ha Long is already in the eye, I think.

[doomhaMwx]

Some outlying islands are already in the eye. Bach Long Vi recorded an MSLP of 972.7 mb south of the eye at 03Z (was likely lower since the station only reports 3-hourly), with a gust of 46 m/s (166 kph / 89 kts).

[CrazyC83]

It seems Yagi made a slight jog southward - I don't think it made landfall on any of the islands near Ha Long. It's aiming straight for Haiphong.

[Hayabusa]

Even JTWC is mentioning a historic landfall

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.3N 108.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 136 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
HAVING MOVED OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN ABOUT
EIGHT HOURS AGO, TYPHOON (TY) 12W (YAGI) HAS STEADILY REORGANIZED
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS AN HISTORICAL LANDFALL
IN NORTHERN VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH VERY STRONG
CONVECTION, AS INDICATED BY A LARGE BAND OF -80C OR COLDER CLOUD
TOPS LAID ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ANIMATED
RADAR DATA INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED INNER EYEWALL FEATURE WHICH HAS
STEADILY DECREASED IN SIZE SINCE COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (EWRC). A 062340Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE
STRONGEST EYEWALL CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, WHILE
THE EYEWALL IS OPEN TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE
LATEST CIMSS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ANALYSIS, INDICATING 12 KNOTS OF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. FINALLY, A 062242Z RCM-2 SAR PASS REVEALS
A STRONG EYEWALL IN ALL QUADRANTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH A
MAXIMUM WIND FIX OF 116 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED SAR AND
MICROWAVE PASSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE SAR PASS, BUT ALSO IS IN LINE
WITH THE ADJUSTED ADT VALUES OF T6.1. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR A TOUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH
VERY WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC, LOW VWS AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CHINA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 112 KTS AT 062130Z
CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 070000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 31-32 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF
VIETNAM, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A HISTORICAL LANDFALL AS ONE
OF THE, IF NOT THE MOST, INTENSE TYPHOON ON RECORD TO MAKE A
LANDFALL IN THIS REGION OF VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY, TO ABOUT 9 KNOTS, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
HAIPHONG, VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. IN THE REMAINING TIME
OVER WATER, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT BIT OF
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED AS A 115-120
KNOT TYPHOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO WEAKEN DURING THE
INITIAL SIX HOURS OR SO OVER LAND, AS IT TRAVERSES THE MARSHES OF
THE RED RIVER DELTA, DUE TO THE BROWN-WATER EFFECT AND THUS, A 100
KNOT TYPHOON PASSING OVER OR VERY NEAR HANOI IS A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER PASSING HANOI, THE
SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND OVER RUGGED
TERRAIN FEATURES. FULL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48 OVER FAR
NORTHERN LAOS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH THE SHORT FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTER THE END POINT OF THE FORECAST, THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION
TO THE STATEMENT ABOVE IS THE GFS, WHICH PULLS A U-TURN AND HEADS
BACK OUT TO SEA BY TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH BOTH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER LANDFALL BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
TAU 48. THE SOLE EXCEPTION IS THE RIDE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AID
WHICH CONTINUES TO STUBBORNLY PREDICT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST DOES CALL FOR WEAKENING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WHILE NOT CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST
POINTS, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 KNOTS OF
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

The eye just passed over Cat Ba Island and is now moving inland near/over the city of Ha Long. Most recent obs from nearby Phu Lien Observatory in Haiphong about an hour ago (06Z) had a sea-level pressure of 977.2 mb and storm-force sustained winds.

[doomhaMwx]

Impressive obs from Haiphong. Cat Bi International Airport reported an MSLP of 958 mb at 08Z and 08:30Z w/ gusts up to 81 kts (150 kph). At 09Z, the nearby Phu Lien Observatory recorded a gust of 97 kts (180 kph) at 116m elevation!

VVCI 070830Z 26050G81KT 230V290 0300 0250NW R07/0700U +TSRA BKN005 BKN009 FEW022CB OVC025 25/25 Q0958 BECMG TL0915 26040G70KT 1500 +TSRA
VVCI 070800Z 29045G70KT 0800 0700NW R07/0400D +SHRA SCT009 OVC016 25/24 Q0958 BECMG TL0815 1500 +SHRA

[mrbagyo]

 https://x.com/EMHGC_2021/status/1832325011472052545



flattened banana plantation
 https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1832389260160463010

[doomhaMwx]

The 942 mb obs at Bai Chay is the lowest sea-level pressure ever observed in Vietnam by a huge margin. According to KTTV Vietnam, previous record was 959.1 mb during TY Cecil in 1985 (probably doesn't include their stations in the Spratly Islands, where TY Rai in 2021 produced a 953 mb reading).

[Sciencerocks]

Looking at the damage this system caused I think it will be retired off the list for good.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

With at least 152 deaths and >$9 billion in damages, Yagi ends her destructive journey. Good riddance. Hoping for a speedy recovery for all the areas affected.

127 of these deaths are from Vietnam, and the numbers seem to be going up pretty fast. It is Vietnam's deadliest since Ketsana 2009, but the figures may change.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1834665589622665377



This storm is gone!

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1835824864600731705