WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

[ManilaTC]

JMA with a Tropical Depression of the LPA east of Luzon.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 17N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

Now 98W

98W INVEST 240915 0600 17.5N 124.6E WPAC 15 998

[Hayabusa]

Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151600Z-160600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZSEP2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. :
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 15SEP24 1200Z, TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
30.5N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.0N 143.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BELT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FLARING ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE
SEA, FROM THE PHILIPPINES TO THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS NEAR GUAM ARE DRIFTING CYCLONICALLY, CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICTING BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING. EXISTING DEEP CONVECTION IS CHAOTIC AND STRONGLY
SHEARED BY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A 150347Z AMSR2
IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS WEAK AND VERY FRAGMENTED BANDING, WITH NOTHING
WELL DEFINED AT PRESENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE IN THIS
VICINITY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING CONSOLIDATED IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE MARIANAS AS A WESTERLY WIND BURST CAUSES SPIKING
VORTICITY VALUES ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES IN HOW QUICKLY OR DEEPLY TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF
CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS, BUT THERE IS CONSISTENTLY FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS AND HEAD GENERALLY NORTH
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCES OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME
PART OF A MUCH LARGER REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC TROUGHING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N
126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED,
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 151232Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH PREDOMINANTLY 15-20 KNOT
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
SLOW WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON WITH GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

Jma tc warning

[Hayabusa]

jtwc tcfa