WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

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94W INVEST 240903 1200 20.4N 137.5E WPAC 15 0

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WWJP27 RJTD 041800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.

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low

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061952ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 07SEP24 0000Z, TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N
108.2E, APPROXIMATELY 136 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 070300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 06SEP24 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (LEEPI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 39.2N 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 567 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 062100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.2N 163.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 159.1E, APPROXIMATELY 899 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW
AND NO DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070258Z
AMSR2 89 H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL CURVED BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A PARTIAL 062312Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BETWEEN 30-31C, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF 05-10KTS, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS
STRONGLY INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS WITH SIMILAR TIMELINES FOR DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
08SEP0600Z-09091200Z. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (GEFS, EC-EPS) IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.3N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 135.7E, APPROXIMATELY 471 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN
100NM AND THE HIGHEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTAL
IMAGERY SATELLITE (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS
NDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT,
INCLUDING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WITH SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES
C. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY BROAD AND UNDERGO ONLY LIMITED
CONSOLIDATION. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN WEST TOWARDS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND DEVELOP SOME ENHANCED
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LLCC. FOR HAZARDS
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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Back to TD but warning status

WWJP27 RJTD 090600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 23.5N 129.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

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JMA 00z also issued TC warning

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZSEP2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 10SEP24 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 146.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF WFO GUAM,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 124.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A LARGE AREA OF ROTATION WITH MULTIPLE
MESOVORTICIES. A 092224Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD EASTWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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