SIO: TC 25S - Remnants

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SH, 93, 2024051700, , BEST, 0, 31S, 732E, 15, 0, DB

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 932024.dat

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.6S 73.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.9S 72.9E, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM NORTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A
172128Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (40-50KT) VWS, MODERATE
STRAIGHT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.4S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.4S 75.2E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. A 191310Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN QUADRANT WITH SHALLOW BANDING EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. A 191601Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH 30-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION, AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C),
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40-50KT). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WHILE WEAKENING STEADILY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

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WDXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTY-FIVE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 2.3S 75.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 330 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
DESPITE VERY STRONG (40-50 KNOTS), PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A LOW-LATITUDE POSITION, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
25S HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LIMITED AND UNIFORM AREA OF INTENSE
DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -88 C.
ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) POSITIONED ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES FAIRLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL BANDING STRUCTURE. HOWEVER,
A 191653Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
A SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE (VERY
ISOLATED 40 KNOT WINDS) WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER 15-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
BASED ON THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, THERE IS SUFFICIENT
JUSTIFICATION FOR ASSESSING THE SYSTEM AT 35 KNOTS AND ISSUING THE
FIRST TC WARNING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
365 NM NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE SUPPORTED BY RECENT METOP-B AND METOP-C ASCAT PASSES,
WHICH SHOW A RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED 25-
30 KT WINDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 30 KTS AND
GREATER NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE NEAR-TERM.
THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.