ATL: KATIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 94, 2023083000, , BEST, 0, 155N, 216W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 240, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942023.dat

[IcyTundra]

Most models don't do much with this. Maybe another named storm but that's about all I would expect.

[ElectricStorm]

Should only be a TD/weak TS here if it even develops at all

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located
near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system
initially moves west-northwestward and then turns northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located
near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

94L is a broad circulation with convection happening. However there is to the north west a pocket of dry air SAL which could hinder its progress,

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located near
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in
the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[AJC3]

2 AM Thursday...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms that are gradually
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should
monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. .

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2023083112, , BEST, 0, 164N, 260W, 25, 1007, LO

[ChrisH-UK]

94L is still stretched out a little but is forming in to a tropical system as the wave gets more curled up and compact. Looks like tis could be the next named system and judging by the models should be around a couple of days as it heads north west before degrading a bit but might come back again,

Source - https://col.st/gDn0Z

[Nimbus]

Since its already at the latitudes of the Cape Verde islands it may keep a weakness open for a week or two recurving its followers which would be nice.

[Sciencerocks]

Already looks to be a cyclone. Should be a fishy.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms with some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the system moves northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in
the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[WalterWhite]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located just
west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A short-lived tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form later tonight or on Friday
while the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[bob rulz]

Definitely looks to be at least a depression already. I feel like they would've pulled the trigger already if this were threatening land.

[Extratropical94]

T2.5 from SAB, T2.0 from TAFB

TXNT21 KNES 010628
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94L)

B. 01/0530Z

C. 18.2N

D. 28.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...5.5/10 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET IS A 2.0
DUE TO A DEVELOPING TREND IN THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. PT AGREES
WITH DT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN