ATL: JOSE - Advisories

[Iceresistance]

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 51.4W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 51.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slightly
faster and generally northward motion is expected Wednesday and
Thursday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight
strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and the
depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

Visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate
that the area of low pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic
has become better defined. Deep convection associated with the
system has persisted since yesterday, but it is located over the
eastern side of the circulation due to moderate westerly shear. The
ASCAT data revealed believable peak winds of around 30 kt, and that
is the basis for the initial intensity for this advisory. Guidance
suggests that the shear could decrease slightly in the short term
which could allow for some slight strengthening. The NHC forecast
follows that scenario and calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the
shear is forecast to increase markedly and no additional
strengthening is indicated. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to
become post-tropical, and dissipation is indicated by 96 hours.
Both of those events could occur sooner than indicated below.

The depression is currently moving slowly northward or 360/2 kt. A
slow north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the
day or so as a mid-level ridge currently to the north of the
depression slides eastward. After that time, a slightly faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected as the cyclone
is steered between the aforementioned ridge and Hurricane Franklin
to its west. The NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected
consensus and the various multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 27.9N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 28.3N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 28.9N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 29.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 30.8N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 32.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 35.0N 51.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

The center of the depression is exposed this afternoon. Its
associated convection remains displaced over the eastern portion of
the circulation by westerly shear. Since the satellite presentation
has not improved since the earlier ASCAT retrievals, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

Visible and microwave images indicate the depression has moved
little since this morning, and it appears to be currently drifting
north-northwestward at 345/2 kt within weak steering currents. A
ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to slide eastward
through midweek, which should allow the cyclone to gradually turn
northward and north-northeastward as it accelerates within
deepening southerly flow ahead of Hurricane Franklin. The updated
NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in agreement
within the latest multi-model consensus aids.

There is a brief window during the next day or so where the models
suggest the shear could decrease enough to allow the depression to
strengthen into a tropical storm. Afterwards, upper-level outflow
from Franklin will likely strip away its convection and inhibit any
further intensification. The depression is forecast to become
post-tropical shortly before it becomes absorbed in about 72 h by
the broader circulation associated with Franklin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 28.2N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 28.6N 52.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 29.4N 52.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 30.4N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 32.0N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 34.0N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

[div]BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

...DEPRESSION WANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 52.4W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 52.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A meandering northward motion is expected for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
While it is possible the depression could briefly become a tropical
storm, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected. The
system is forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but
it could happen sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky[


BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

...DEPRESSION WANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 52.4W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 52.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A meandering northward motion is expected for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
While it is possible the depression could briefly become a tropical
storm, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected. The
system is forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but
it could happen sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

/div]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

The depression re-developed a larger area of deep convection early
this morning, with signs of lightning activity associated with that
convection in GLM data. While this will allow the depression to
maintain its classification as a tropical cyclone for a while
longer, satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB still only
support an intensity of around 30 kt.

The depression continues to meander, having drifted eastward for
the past several hours. It is still expected to turn generally
northward later today, albeit at a very slow pace. Models suggest
it could finally begin to accelerate northward by Thursday, but
this acceleration will likely cause the system to open into a
trough. The NHC track forecast remains near the multi-model
consensus.

There has been no change to the intensity forecast thinking. The
depression still has another day or so to briefly strengthen and
become a very short-lived tropical storm, but most of the intensity
guidance does not support that scenario. Instead, it is becoming
more likely that the depression will succumb to a combination of dry
air and shear and become a post-tropical remnant low in another day
or so. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 28.2N 52.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 28.4N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 29.2N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 30.6N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0600Z 32.7N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

The depression had a large burst of convection this morning.
Scatterometer missed the system this morning, so we did
not get any data of the wind field with this convective burst. A
blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are
still around 30 kt, and the intensity is held at 30 kt for this
advisory cycle.

The depression continues to meander over the central Atlantic. It
is expected to slowly move northward later today, and then a little
faster northward by Thursday. The NHC track forecast is slower in
short-term than the previous forecast, given the initial slow
motion, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.

The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous forecast.
The depression still may briefly strengthen into a very short-lived
tropical storm, but most of the guidance keep the system as a
depression. As the system moves northward it will encounter an
environment of dry air and increased shear. The depression is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 28.3N 52.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 28.6N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 29.5N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 31.1N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1200Z 33.3N 51.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

The depression has become a little less organized on visible
satellite imagery this afternoon, with multiple vortices exposed on
the western edge of the convection. Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB/SAB are around 30 kt, and given the current disorganized
structure, with an exposed center, the intensity will remain at 30
kt for this advisory.

The depression continues to drift over the central Atlantic. It
will slowly move northward later today, and then a little faster
northward by Thursday. The NHC track forecast is close to the
previous one, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.

The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous forecast.
The depression still may briefly strengthen into a very short-lived
tropical storm, but most of the intensity guidance keeps the system
as a depression. As the system moves northward, it will encounter
dry air and increased vertical wind shear. Therefore, the
depression is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in
about day or so, and dissipate by 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 28.5N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 29.0N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 30.4N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 32.7N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

There has been a healthy burst of convection near the estimated
low-level center this evening. Microwave satellite imagery shows
some small curved bands on the eastern portion of the circulation.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, closest to
the subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

The depression continues to meander over the open waters of
the central Atlantic. Model guidance predicts it will begin moving
to the north soon, and gradually increase in forward speed over the
next day or so between the flow of a subtropical ridge to its east
and the flow around Hurricane Franklin to its west. Only minor
adjustments have been made to latest official track forecast.

There have also been no changes to the intensity forecast.
Global models indicate the depression should lose deep,
organized convection within a day or so, and the official forecast
shows it becoming a remnant low in 36 h and dissipating by day 2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 28.5N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 29.3N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 31.3N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 33.9N 51.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Convection since the prior advisory has become markedly better
organized on infrared and shortwave-IR imagery. Instead of the
bursting pattern exhibited the prior two nights, there is more
evidence of curved banding, which was noted on the GMI microwave
pass last evening and a more recent AMSR2 pass at 0458 UTC.
Subjective estimates form TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt, and the
latest SATCON estimate was up to 37 kt. All these data suggest the
depression has become tropical storm Jose, and 35 kt is the initial
intensity this advisory.

Jose has certainly been in no hurry to move anywhere the last couple
of days, but may finally be starting a more northward motion, now
estimated at 350/5 kt. Part of the storm's previous lack of motion
was related to competing steering influences from mid-level ridging
both to its north and south, keeping the small cycle parked in
place. However, The large circulation of Hurricane Franklin
approaching from the west should break this steering stalemate. Jose
is forecast to soon accelerate northward as it becomes swept up in
the larger hurricane's circulation. The track guidance is in good
agreement with this solution, and the track forecast was largely an
update of the previous advisory.

Despite Jose becoming a tropical storm, it does not appear likely
to intensify very much more. While vertical wind shear is currently
low, it should rapidly increase as Jose accelerates north and
Franklin's outflow increases the upper-level flow from the opposite
direction. Most of the guidance shows Jose getting absorbed by
Franklin by the weekend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
shows this solution occuring in 48 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 28.8N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 30.3N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 32.6N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 36.4N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRANKLIN

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...JOSE MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY FRANKLIN ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 52.1W
ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES



Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Jose is producing bursts of deep convection near and over the
estimated center position this morning. Overnight microwave data
suggest the surface center was pulled slightly eastward by an
increase in convection during the diurnal maximum period. The
various satellite intensity estimates range from 32-45 kt this
morning, with the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and
TAFB (45 kt) higher than the objective UW-CIMSS estimates which are
around 35 kt. A timely ASCAT-B pass over Jose shows believable wind
vectors up to 32 kt in the eastern semicircle, which supports
holding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving northward at about 6 kt. An acceleration toward
the north is expected during the next day or so as the small system
gets caught in the broader cyclonic circulation associated with
Hurricane Franklin. Deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over
Jose as it accelerates northward toward Franklin, but Jose appears
likely to maintain some tropical-storm-force winds in its eastern
semicircle due to its faster northward motion. There have been no
notable changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast, and Jose is
now expected to be absorbed by Franklin in 36 h, in agreement with
the latest global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 29.7N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 31.4N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 34.4N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

The cloud pattern of Jose has changed little since earlier today.
Banding features are limited, and the convection near the center
is not very deep at this time. The upper-level outflow is being
impeded over the western portion of the circulation, suggestive
of northwesterly shear over the system. The current intensity
estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak
T-number from TAFB.

Latest center fixes indicate that the system is moving northward
with increasing forward speed. The current motion estimate is
360/10 kt. During the next 12 to 24 hours Jose should continue to
move generally northward, with a continued increase in forward
speed, along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone, Then,
the cyclone is likely to become entrained into the eastern portion
of the larger circulation of Franklin. The official track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the
global model solutions.

Given the influence of nearby Franklin on both the low-level
circulation and the upper-level outflow, Jose is not likely to
strengthen significantly during the next day or so. The official
forecast, like the previous one, shows the system dissipating after
24 hours since it is expected to be absorbed by Franklin by then.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 30.8N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 33.1N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 37.2N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...SMALL JOSE STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 52.4W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Jose is a tiny tropical cyclone with the convective cloud tops only
extending 50 to 60 n mi across. However, geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the storm has a tight
circulation with evidence of a mid-level eye feature. A recent
ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the
system is so small that instrument likely can not resolve the peak
winds. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, which is above
the Dvorak estimates.

Jose is likely near its peak intensity. There is no way Jose will
escape the outflow associated with Hurricane Franklin, that is
expected to begin affecting the small storm by midday Friday.
Therefore, the forecast shows a steady weakening trend until it
becomes absorbed by Franklin in about 36 hours.

The storm is moving northward at 11 kt and is moving in the flow
between Franklin and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. A
faster motion to the north is expected until the system dissipates
on Saturday. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the west of the
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 32.7N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 35.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 39.9N 51.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Fritz

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a compact,
symmetric cloud pattern with intermittent deep convective bursts of
convection near the surface center. An earlier AMSR2 microwave
image revealed evidence of a small eye-like mid-level feature.
Based on the much-improved structure, particularly in the microwave
images, this advisory's initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, but
it could be stronger. The intensity philosophy remains unchanged.
Increasing northerly shear associated with Hurricane Franklin's
outflow should weaken the cyclone. By early Saturday, Jose
is forecast to become absorbed by Franklin and an intruding
mid-latitude baroclinic system.

Jose's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 005/16 kt.
The small cyclone is being steered by the mid-tropospheric flow
produced by a high pressure to the east over the central Atlantic
and larger Hurricane Franklin approaching from the northwest. Jose
is expected to accelerate northward through dissipation while the
deep-layer southerly steering flow strengthens. The deterministic
guidance agrees with this solution, and the NHC forecast lies
close to the HFIP corrected consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 33.9N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 37.0N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Deep convection is waning and becoming more asymmetric near the
center of Jose on satellite imagery as northerly shear from
Franklin's outflow increases. The low-level center is starting to
become exposed. Jose's initial intensity is conservatively lowered
to 45 kt for this advisory based on the automated Dvorak intensity
estimate from UW-CIMSS and the degraded satellite structure of Jose.
This lies near the average of the upper uncertainty bound from the
CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate (which incorporated the overnight
SSMIS microwave overpass) and the Dvorak estimates of 35 kt from
TAFB and SAB.

Jose is accelerating and the forward motion is currently estimated
to be north-northeastward (15 degrees) at 20 kt. The increase in
forward speed and interaction with Franklin could lead to a slight
expansion of the tropical-storm-force winds on the east side of
Jose. The tropical storm is expected to dissipate sometime tonight
as it is absorbed by Franklin. The track forecast is slightly
faster than the consensus aids based on the global model wind
fields. Little intensity change is forecast as the fast forward
speed of the system is likely to maintain stronger winds in the
eastern semicircle, despite diminished convection.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 36.0N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 39.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stevenson/Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Jose has started to become more elongated in recent geostationary
imagery. However, a midday AMSR2 microwave pass showed that the
system still has a small coherent mid-level circulation. The
intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with
recent UW-CIMSS AiDT, DMINT, and DPRINT estimates. It is noted that
the intensity is more uncertain than usual given the compact nature
of the system and its degraded convective structure. The storm is
beginning to move underneath the upper-level clouds associated with
Franklin's outflow.

Jose continues to accelerate towards the north-northeast at about 28
kt. The increase in forward motion and interaction with Franklin
could lead to a slight expansion of the tropical-storm-force winds
on the east side of Jose. The tropical storm is still expected to
dissipate sometime tonight as it becomes absorbed by Franklin. The
track forecast is largely based on the global model wind fields, and
little intensity change is anticipated through dissipation as the
fast forward motion is likely to maintain stronger winds over the
eastern semicircle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 39.4N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 43.5N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stevenson/Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Jose Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Jose has been absorbed into the powerful extratropical cyclone,
Franklin. Geostationary imagery suggests the remnants of Jose are
embedded in a convective band in the northeast quadrant of Franklin.
The initial intensity has been set to 40 kt, though it is hard to
determine a maximum wind speed associated with the remnants, when
the intensity of Franklin is likely much stronger.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Jose. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 42.1N 47.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci