ATL: IDALIA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos,
including Cozumel.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
extreme western Cuba for the provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the
Isle of Youth.



Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become
better organized today. Radar observations show a circulation has
developed, although surface observations indicate that the western
semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time. Given
the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Ten. Surface synoptic observations suggest that
the current intensity is around 25 kt.

The current motion estimate is nearly stationary. There is a
weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical
cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in
weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little
motion is predicted during that period. After that time, a
mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone.
This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3
days. Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as
the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. The
official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus guidance.

The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible
over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Watch area.

2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 21.1N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.9N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 20.8N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 26.3N 85.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 31.5N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. The
depression is nearly stationary, and little overall movement is
expected through Sunday. A slow, generally northward, motion is
expected to begin on Monday. On the forecast track, the center will
move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The system
could then become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western
Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash
and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the Gulf Coast
and portions of the Southeast by mid- to late next week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area over western
Cuba beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for
Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.4 West. The
depression is drifting toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and
is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday.
A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected on
Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and a
hurricane by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western
Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to
flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the west coast
of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and the Southeast by mid to late
next week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday and
western Cuba Sunday night or Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area on the Isle of Youth Sunday
night or Monday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg





Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Images from the Mexico meteorological service's radar in Cancun show
that the depression has a small but well-defined circulation with
spiral banding extending no more than about 60 n mi from the center.
This feature is embedded within a larger circulation with scattered
deep convection covering the northwestern Caribbean Sea, extreme
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and adjacent land areas. The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest subjective Dvorak
estimate from TAFB and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS.

The depression appears to be drifting toward the southwest with an
initial motion of 230/2 kt, with low- to mid-level ridging located
to its north and northwest. The system is expected to continue
meandering over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36
hours. After that time, a developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico
and strengthening ridging over the western Atlantic is expected to
begin lifting the system toward the north and north-northeast over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, and then near the
southeastern coast of the U.S. The updated NHC track forecast lies
on top of or very near the previous prediction and closely follows
the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids.

Assuming the depression's center does not move over the Yucatan
Peninsula, very warm waters and low to moderate vertical shear
should support gradual strengthening during the next few days. The
NHC intensity prediction is a little below the consensus aids during
the first 36 hours of the forecast but then converges with those
aids thereafter, showing the system reaching hurricane strength by
60 hours. The system is expected to remain a hurricane, and
potentially continue strengthening, up until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida on Wednesday. Users are reminded to continue
monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected
intensity as it approaches Florida. Land interaction and increasing
shear should lead to fast weakening after the system moves over
land, but it could still produce tropical-storm-force winds near and
offshore the southeastern coast of the U.S. even if the center is
inland.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.

2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING NEAR YUCATAN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 86.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

The small circulation of Tropical Depression Ten continues to be
well-defined in Cancun radar, with the center moving across Cozumel
during the past few hours. Data from a Weatherflow sensor on the
island indicated that the pressure dropped to about 1001 mb, with
sustained winds of about 30 kt. A small burst of convection has
formed just south of the center recently, with scattered banding
features in the eastern semicircle. Most of the satellite
estimates are just shy of tropical storm strength, so the initial
winds speed will stay 30 kt. Both Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be in the system later this morning
to get a better look at the structure and winds.

The depression has turned southward tonight, moving at about 4 kt,
apparently rotating around the western periphery of its larger
parent circulation to the east. Little net motion is expected for
about a day as steering currents remain weak. After that time, a
developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico and stronger ridging over
the western Atlantic is expected to lift the system toward the north
and north-northeast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This track
takes the system toward Florida, and then near the southeastern
coast of the U.S. The overnight model guidance is a bit farther
west and slower than the last cycle, probably due to the depression
being further south than anticipated. Thus, the NHC forecast is
nudged westward, and lies on the east side of the guidance envelope.
These are small changes overall, and the track should be considered
lower confidence until it starts moving in a more consistent manner.
The NOAA G-IV aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
help smooth out the model differences along with special upper-air
soundings scheduled across many areas of the southeastern United
States.

The very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico should support at least gradual strengthening during
the next few days, tempered by moderate shear from a flat upper-
level trough. However, this trough is forecast to amplify over the
western Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday, which causes the shear to
decrease near the cyclone in that time frame. There's a notable
risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the
record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is
highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC
forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model
consensus, and could be too low. I'm reluctant to make any big
changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the
upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are
reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the
system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.

2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of this week. Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location
and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should
monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure that they
have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 21.7N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 23.3N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 25.7N 85.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.5N 84.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

So far this morning, the overall cloud pattern of the tropical
cyclone has not become significantly better organized. The small
center is partially exposed on GOES-16 visible imagery, and
convective banding features are still not very well defined. The
current intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory which is in
line with the latest Dvorak Satellite estimates. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, flying at around 12000 ft, is near the center of
the system taking Doppler radar wind velocity measurements. These
data should provide valuable information on the structure of the
cyclone for initializing the numerical weather prediction models.

The center of the cyclone appears to have been moving in a small
clockwise loop overnight and into this morning, and it will
probably complete this loop today. The initial motion estimate is
now around 090/2 kt. Steering currents should remain weak through
today and tonight. Beginning on Monday, a mid-level ridge starts to
build near southern Florida and eastward. This evolution should
cause a generally northward motion during the next couple of days.
In 48 to 72 hours, a mid-level trough dropping into the eastern U.S.
will likely induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the
system across the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast on Wednesday. The
official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the
previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction. Users are reminded not to focus on
the exact forecast track, since strong winds, heavy rains and
dangerous storm surges extend well away from the center.

The cyclone will be moving over waters of high oceanic heat content
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a moist mid- to
low-level air mass for the next few days. An upper-tropospheric
trough is predicted to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico in 48
to 72 hours. Although this feature could produce some moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system, positive
vorticity advection and diffluent upper-level flow to the east of
the trough will likely be conducive for strengthening. The
official forecast, like the previous one, calls for the cyclone to
reach hurricane status over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72
hours. This is at the high end of the latest intensity model
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening
storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds
along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida
Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Although it is too soon
to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts,
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast,
have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by
local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches may be required
for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later today.

2. Heavy rainfall is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding
and landslides across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba with tropical storm conditions possible on the Isle of
Youth.

3. Scattered flooding from heavy rainfall is likely over in
portions of the southeast U.S. by mid to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1015 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...IDALIA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, and for the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Idalia is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow, possibly
erratic, motion is expected overnight. A generally northward to
north-northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed is
expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday,
and approach the northeast Gulf coast late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday.
Additional strengthening is likely while Idalia approaches the
northeastern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba through
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on the Isle of Youth on Monday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late Monday and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also
be expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the
Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday
into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

4 PM CDT Discussion:

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Idalia's cloud pattern is gradually becoming a little better
organized, with a curved convective band forming over the southern
semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is currently
restricted over the northern portion of the system, however.
The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt based on a subjective
Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Another aircraft reconnaissance mission
into the storm is scheduled for tonight.

The tropical cyclone continues to move rather slowly, and the
initial motion estimate is 040/3 kt. Idalia should remain in a weak
steering pattern through tonight so slow and possibly erratic
motion is likely for the next 12 hours. On Monday, a mid-level
ridge begins to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone.
This should result in a slightly east of northward motion during
the next day or two. When the system moves into the northeast Gulf
of Mexico, a mid-level trough developing over the eastern United
states will likely cause Idalia to turn northeastward with an
increase in forward speed. The new official forecast is again
shifted slightly eastward, and is somewhat faster than the previous
one. This is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is
also between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus tracks.

The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Idalia will be
traversing eastern Gulf of Mexico waters of high oceanic heat
content, and the environmental air mass should remain fairly moist.
The flow to the east of an upper-level trough could impart some
vertical wind shear over the system, but this shear could also be
compensated by the conducive effect of upper-level diffluence.
There is considerable spread in the model intensity guidance,
ranging from minimal to major hurricane status before landfall on
the northeast Gulf coast. The official intensity forecast is a
little higher than the previous one, and remains near the higher
end of the guidance. Given the uncertainties, users should monitor
future NHC forecasts for possible changes in the predicted strength
of Idalia, and prepare for possible significant impacts within the
hurricane and storm surge watch areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of
Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday.
Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude
of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to
the forecast and follow any advice given by local officials. Storm
surge and hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Scattered flash and urban flooding can be expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday. Flooding
from heavy rainfall is likely over portions of the southeast U.S. by
mid to late week.

3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba with tropical storm
conditions possible on the Isle of Youth.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 20.1N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 20.5N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 21.7N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 25.6N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 28.7N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 31.3N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.5N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 01/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...IDALIA A LITTLE STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...IDALIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL
RIO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has changed the Tropical Storm Warning for
Pinar del Rio to a Hurricane Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch for
the Isle of Youth has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dry Tortugas has been upgraded to
a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
for the Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile
Bridge.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. Idalia has
been moving erratically and is nearly stationary. A motion toward
the north-northeast and north is expected to begin on Monday,
bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by Monday night. Idalia will then continue on a northward
or north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Buoy observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a
hurricane on Monday. Idalia is likely to be near or at major
hurricane intensity when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained
wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba by late Monday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by Monday morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through Monday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late Monday and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 5 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Carolinas by
Wednesday into Thursday.

Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall may lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Idalia's center has become embedded beneath a large burst of deep
convection, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures as cold as -82
degrees Celsius. NOAA buoy 42056, located just to the east of the
center, has reported maximum 1-minute sustained winds as high as 45
kt within the past hour or two. The anemometer height of the buoy
is 4 meters, so converting the wind to a standard 10-meter height
indicates that Idalia's intensity is now up to at least 50 kt, which
is the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Idalia in a few
hours.

The center has been moving erratically since earlier today, and may
have even sagged southward, pulled toward the recently developed
deep convection. A northward motion is expected to begin on Monday
and continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging
over the Greater Antilles. After 48 hours, a gradual turn toward
the northeast and then east is anticipated due to a deeper trough
that is expected to swing across the Great Lakes. No significant
changes were required for the updated NHC track forecast compared
to the previous prediction. The spread among the track models
remains relatively low, and the official track continues to lie
closest to the ECMWF and HCCA consensus aid.

Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees
Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even
deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although
the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system,
this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has
already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment
looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC
intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of
the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch
areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and
monitor future updates to the forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be near or at major
hurricane strength when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. The
risk continues to increase for a life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida
and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Storm
surge and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern
Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may
lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday
into Thursday.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far
western Cuba late Monday. Heavy rainfall is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 19.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 20.7N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 22.2N 85.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 24.2N 84.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 26.8N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 29.6N 82.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0000Z 32.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0000Z 34.3N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 34.4N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES IDALIA...
...IDALIA FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 85.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Idalia has intensified overnight. Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed believable surface winds of 50-55
kt and a central pressure falling to around 989 mb. The wind data
is also confirmed by NOAA buoy 42056, located just southeast of
the center, which has reported maximum 1-minute adjusted sustained
winds above 50 kt within the past hour or two. These data support
raising the initial wind speed to 55 kt.

It seems like Idalia is finally on the move, with aircraft fixes
indicating a northward motion of about 6 kt. This motion should
continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level trough
over the central Gulf of Mexico and a strengthening ridge over the
Greater Antilles. The storm is likely to move faster to the
north-northeast and northeast by early Wednesday due to a deeper
trough that is expected to swing across the mid-western United
States. The new NHC track forecast is quite close to the last one
with little significant changes to the track guidance. It should be
emphasized that only a small deviation in the track could cause a
big change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida due to the
paralleling track to the west coast of the state.

The center of Idalia is on the northern edge of the deep convective
mass, a refection of moderate northwesterly shear, and the last
aircraft pass showed a vortex tilted southward with height. This
shear and structure should persist for about the next 24 hours,
helping to keep the intensity of the storm from increasing too
quickly despite the extremely warm waters it will be traversing.
The NHC short-term forecast will continue to indicate Idalia as a
hurricane near western Cuba, similar to the guidance.

Over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment is forecast to become
conducive for significant strengthening of Idalia due to a new
trough dropping south over the western Gulf of Mexico as a
upper-level ridge builds near the cyclone. Additionally, Idalia
will be moving over waters near 31C, and some of the guidance is
even indicating favorable jet dynamics on Wednesday with Idalia in
the right-rear quadrant of the jet over the southeastern United
States. The bottom line is that rapid intensification is becoming
increasingly likely before landfall, and the NHC forecast now
explicitly indicates it between 24-48 h in the forecast. This is
consistent with almost all of the regional hurricane models and the
SHIPS rapid intensification indices, which are 5-10 times the
climatological mean. The new prediction shows a 100-kt hurricane
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but Idalia should keep
strengthening up to landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida.
Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch areas are urged
to prepare for possible significant impacts and monitor future
updates to the forecast for this increasingly dangerous situation.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is now forecast to become a major hurricane before it
reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. The risk continues to increase
for life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida
Panhandle beginning as early as late Tuesday. Storm surge and
hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of
Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and residents in
these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far
western Cuba later today. Heavy rainfall is also expected across
portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 20.1N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 21.1N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 22.6N 85.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 24.8N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.7N 84.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 30.7N 82.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0600Z 32.8N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHEN IT NEARS WESTERN
CUBA LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Corrected Hurricane Warning end point in the change section of the
watches and warnings

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 85.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Englewood northward to
the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Middle of Longboat Key
northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Chokoloskee northward
to the Middle of Longboat Key, and from west of the Lockheed
River westward to Indian Pass.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Atlantic coast of
Florida and Georgia from Sebastian Inlet, Florida northward to
Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlockonee River,
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of the Middle of Longboat Key to Chokoloskee Florida
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 85.2 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight,
over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and
reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a
dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba later today. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through today

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning late today and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADO: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the
west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

The satellite presentation of the storm has improved this morning
with the center more deeply embedded within the deep convection and
colder cloud tops. However, recent reconnaissance aircraft data
from both the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA indicate that the
improved satellite presentation has not yet resulted in an
increase in wind speed. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 68 kt, and a minimum
pressure around 990 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity
remains 55 kt this advisory. The Air Force aircraft will be in the
storm environment through early afternoon and that data should
continue to provide information Idalia's structure and intensity.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Idalia is moving
northward or 360/8 kt. A mid-level trough over the central
Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles should cause
Idalia to move northward at a faster forward speed during the next
12-24 hours. After that time, an even faster north-northeast
motion is expected an another mid-level trough moves across the
central and eastern portions of the United States. The latest NHC
track forecast is again quite similar to the previous forecast.
Although the track forecast has been quite consistent, there is
still some spread in the guidance by 48 hours, and it cannot be
emphasized enough that only a small deviation in the track could
cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida
due to the paralleling track to the west coast of the state.

Although there is still some moderate northwesterly over the storm,
intensification seems likely during the next 12-18 hours, and
Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. By
Tuesday, the environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
expected to become more conducive for strengthening. Steady to
rapid intensification is predicted beginning Tuesday while Idalia
traverses the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and the upper-level
environment becomes more favorable. The NHC intensity forecast
again calls for Idalia to reach major hurricane strength before
landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida.

This forecast has necessitated the issuance of Storm Surge and
Hurricane Warnings for portions of the west coast of Florida and
Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Atlantic
coasts of Florida and Georgia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western
Cuba later today. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions
of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 22.0N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 23.9N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 26.4N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 29.2N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 31.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1200Z 34.6N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 85.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Indian Pass
Florida. The Hurricane Warning has also been extended westward to
Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from west of
Indian Pass westward to Mexico Beach.

The Storm Surge Watch along the southeast coast of the United
States has been extended northward to South Santee River.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the southeast coast of the United
States has been extended northward to South Santee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings along the
southeast United States coast will likely be required later tonight
or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 85.1 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight,
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the Gulf
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so.
Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane this evening or tonight,
and become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning areas in western Cuba through Tuesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning tonight and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern Gulf Coast during the next day
or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along
the west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

The satellite presentation of Idalia has continued to improve this
afternoon. The center of the storm is embedded within an area of
deep convection with cloud tops colder than -75C. Although the
early reconnaissance aircraft and radar data from Cuba
have not yet indicated the presence of an eyewall, the aircraft
data did indicate that the pressure had fallen to around 987 mb on
the final pass through the center earlier this afternoon.
Believable SFMR winds of 60 kt were reported to the east of the
center, and Idalia's intensity was raised to that value on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory and it remains at that value for
this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
are scheduled to be in the storm environment again this evening and
should provide additional information on the structure and
intensity of the tropical cyclone. Another NOAA G-IV synoptic
surveillance mission is underway and that data should be
assimilated into the dynamical model runs this evening.

Idalia is moving northward or 360/7 kt. The storm should continue
to be steered northward between a mid-level trough over the central
Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles through
tonight. On Tuesday, a faster north-northeastward motion should
begin as a trough moves into the east-central United States. This
motion should bring the center of Idalia to the Gulf coast of
Florida on Wednesday. The dynamical models continue to have some
spread after 36 hours, with the GFS and HAFS guidance along the
western side of the envelope and the ECMWF along the eastern side.
The consensus aids were slightly west of the previous cycle, and
the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The NHC track
forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model. It is still worth stressing that only a small deviation in
the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall
location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast
of the state. When Idalia nears the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States the guidance suggests the cyclone will
turn more eastward as the aforementioned trough passes to the north
of the storm.

The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become more conducive
for significant strengthening when Idalia moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. At the same time,
the storm is forecast to move over an area of high ocean heat
content. These conditions are likely to allow for a period of
rapid strengthening which is explicitly shown in the official
forecast through 36 hours. Idalia is likely to become a hurricane
this evening, and is predicted to become major hurricane over the
eastern Gulf within 36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is just a
little above the latest HFIP corrected consensus guidance.

Idalia is forecast to move into an area very susceptible to storm
surge, and regardless of the cyclone's landfall intensity, there is
increasing confidence of a significant storm surge event.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western
Cuba tonight. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions
of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 21.4N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 22.7N 85.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 24.9N 85.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 27.6N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 30.4N 82.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 34.0N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1800Z 34.1N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 34.0N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA ALMOST A HURRICANE NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES