ATL: IDALIA - Models

[chris_fit]

Models Here

[chris_fit]

Most 12Z GFS coming in well E of the 12z GFS OP Run.

GFS Ens trending stronger.

[gatorcane]

Loop of 12Z GEFS. A bit stronger and a bit more west than the 06Z GEFS.

[cycloneye]

First run from SHIP and is bullish. It will be interesting to see the first runs from HWRF, HMON and HAFS A-B.

[LarryWx]

For record-keeping purposes, I'm putting the last four 12 hourly UKMET runs here:

1) 8/24 0Z run:
Has a TD forming just S of W Cuba that later moves NE over S FL:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 22.1N 83.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 22.1N 83.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 23.6N 82.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 29.08.2023 120 24.9N 81.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 29.08.2023 132 27.2N 80.2W 1007 26
0000UTC 30.08.2023 144 28.2N 80.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 30.08.2023 156 30.3N 78.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 31.08.2023 168 32.1N 76.1W 1006 28
-----------------------------

2) 8/24 12Z run:
This run is significantly stronger than the 8/24 0Z run (partially due to being over water longer) with a TS instead of just a TD. Also, instead of it moving NE across S FL, it moves NE from the FL Big Bend across N FL into the Atlantic:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 20.9N 86.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2023 72 20.9N 86.3W 1005 22
0000UTC 28.08.2023 84 21.2N 85.7W 1003 24
1200UTC 28.08.2023 96 22.8N 84.8W 1002 36
0000UTC 29.08.2023 108 24.8N 83.7W 1000 36
1200UTC 29.08.2023 120 27.2N 83.6W 997 38
0000UTC 30.08.2023 132 28.6N 83.4W 994 37
1200UTC 30.08.2023 144 30.3N 82.1W 994 40
0000UTC 31.08.2023 156 32.3N 79.5W 993 41
1200UTC 31.08.2023 168 34.4N 77.1W 996 39
-----------------------------

3) 8/25 0Z run:
a bit stronger than 8/24 12Z run (60 mph when goes offshore E US at end) (UKMET often conservative with winds as 990 mb usually corresponds to stronger TS than 50 mph) with similar to 8/24 12Z run but with slight NW shift. It again landfalls in the FL Big Bend and then goes NE through SE GA and then offshore from SC:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 21.4N 88.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 72 21.3N 87.9W 1004 22
1200UTC 28.08.2023 84 23.4N 86.2W 1000 43
0000UTC 29.08.2023 96 25.1N 84.9W 996 39
1200UTC 29.08.2023 108 27.6N 84.8W 992 40
0000UTC 30.08.2023 120 29.2N 83.9W 990 43
1200UTC 30.08.2023 132 31.3N 82.0W 993 44
0000UTC 31.08.2023 144 33.1N 78.5W 991 45
1200UTC 31.08.2023 156 34.4N 74.6W 991 48
0000UTC 01.09.2023 168 35.2N 70.6W 993 52
-------------------------------

4) 8/25 12Z run (latest):
track is SE of 8/25 0Z run but still landfalls near FL Big Bend; then moves NE to off the SE US; still a TS but a bit weaker than 0Z run due maybe to the further SE track:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 23.2N 85.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2023 84 23.2N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 29.08.2023 96 25.8N 83.9W 1002 38
0000UTC 30.08.2023 108 28.3N 82.7W 999 32
1200UTC 30.08.2023 120 31.7N 80.4W 1000 34
0000UTC 31.08.2023 132 32.8N 77.9W 1000 35
1200UTC 31.08.2023 144 33.9N 74.5W 1000 32
0000UTC 01.09.2023 156 34.3N 71.9W 1001 39
1200UTC 01.09.2023 168 34.2N 69.2W 1002 36

[wxman57]

Models trending a little farther north with FL landfall. Maybe Big Bend to northern Peninsula. I'm working Franklin an Damrey. Coworker has 93L and Saola.

[SFLcane]

For record-keeping purposes, I'm putting the last four 12 hourly UKMET runs here:

1) 8/24 0Z run:
Has a TD forming just S of W Cuba that later moves NE over S FL:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 22.1N 83.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 22.1N 83.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 23.6N 82.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 29.08.2023 120 24.9N 81.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 29.08.2023 132 27.2N 80.2W 1007 26
0000UTC 30.08.2023 144 28.2N 80.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 30.08.2023 156 30.3N 78.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 31.08.2023 168 32.1N 76.1W 1006 28
-----------------------------

2) 8/24 12Z run:
This run is significantly stronger than the 8/24 0Z run (partially due to being over water longer) with a TS instead of just a TD. Also, instead of it moving NE across S FL, it moves NE from the FL Big Bend across N FL into the Atlantic:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 20.9N 86.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2023 72 20.9N 86.3W 1005 22
0000UTC 28.08.2023 84 21.2N 85.7W 1003 24
1200UTC 28.08.2023 96 22.8N 84.8W 1002 36
0000UTC 29.08.2023 108 24.8N 83.7W 1000 36
1200UTC 29.08.2023 120 27.2N 83.6W 997 38
0000UTC 30.08.2023 132 28.6N 83.4W 994 37
1200UTC 30.08.2023 144 30.3N 82.1W 994 40
0000UTC 31.08.2023 156 32.3N 79.5W 993 41
1200UTC 31.08.2023 168 34.4N 77.1W 996 39
-----------------------------

3) 8/25 0Z run:
a bit stronger than 8/24 12Z run (60 mph when goes offshore E US at end) (UKMET often conservative with winds as 990 mb usually corresponds to stronger TS than 50 mph) with similar to 8/24 12Z run but with slight NW shift. It again landfalls in the FL Big Bend and then goes NE through SE GA and then offshore from SC:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 21.4N 88.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 72 21.3N 87.9W 1004 22
1200UTC 28.08.2023 84 23.4N 86.2W 1000 43
0000UTC 29.08.2023 96 25.1N 84.9W 996 39
1200UTC 29.08.2023 108 27.6N 84.8W 992 40
0000UTC 30.08.2023 120 29.2N 83.9W 990 43
1200UTC 30.08.2023 132 31.3N 82.0W 993 44
0000UTC 31.08.2023 144 33.1N 78.5W 991 45
1200UTC 31.08.2023 156 34.4N 74.6W 991 48
0000UTC 01.09.2023 168 35.2N 70.6W 993 52
-------------------------------

4) 8/25 12Z run (latest):
track is SE of 8/25 0Z run but still landfalls near FL Big Bend; then moves NE to off the SE US; still a TS but a bit weaker than 0Z run due maybe to the further SE track:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 23.2N 85.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2023 84 23.2N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 29.08.2023 96 25.8N 83.9W 1002 38
0000UTC 30.08.2023 108 28.3N 82.7W 999 32
1200UTC 30.08.2023 120 31.7N 80.4W 1000 34
0000UTC 31.08.2023 132 32.8N 77.9W 1000 35
1200UTC 31.08.2023 144 33.9N 74.5W 1000 32
0000UTC 01.09.2023 156 34.3N 71.9W 1001 39
1200UTC 01.09.2023 168 34.2N 69.2W 1002 36

[Ianswfl]

For record-keeping purposes, I'm putting the last four 12 hourly UKMET runs here:

1) 8/24 0Z run:
Has a TD forming just S of W Cuba that later moves NE over S FL:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 22.1N 83.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 22.1N 83.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 23.6N 82.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 29.08.2023 120 24.9N 81.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 29.08.2023 132 27.2N 80.2W 1007 26
0000UTC 30.08.2023 144 28.2N 80.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 30.08.2023 156 30.3N 78.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 31.08.2023 168 32.1N 76.1W 1006 28
-----------------------------

2) 8/24 12Z run:
This run is significantly stronger than the 8/24 0Z run (partially due to being over water longer) with a TS instead of just a TD. Also, instead of it moving NE across S FL, it moves NE from the FL Big Bend across N FL into the Atlantic:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 20.9N 86.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2023 72 20.9N 86.3W 1005 22
0000UTC 28.08.2023 84 21.2N 85.7W 1003 24
1200UTC 28.08.2023 96 22.8N 84.8W 1002 36
0000UTC 29.08.2023 108 24.8N 83.7W 1000 36
1200UTC 29.08.2023 120 27.2N 83.6W 997 38
0000UTC 30.08.2023 132 28.6N 83.4W 994 37
1200UTC 30.08.2023 144 30.3N 82.1W 994 40
0000UTC 31.08.2023 156 32.3N 79.5W 993 41
1200UTC 31.08.2023 168 34.4N 77.1W 996 39
-----------------------------

3) 8/25 0Z run:
a bit stronger than 8/24 12Z run (60 mph when goes offshore E US at end) (UKMET often conservative with winds as 990 mb usually corresponds to stronger TS than 50 mph) with similar to 8/24 12Z run but with slight NW shift. It again landfalls in the FL Big Bend and then goes NE through SE GA and then offshore from SC:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 21.4N 88.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 72 21.3N 87.9W 1004 22
1200UTC 28.08.2023 84 23.4N 86.2W 1000 43
0000UTC 29.08.2023 96 25.1N 84.9W 996 39
1200UTC 29.08.2023 108 27.6N 84.8W 992 40
0000UTC 30.08.2023 120 29.2N 83.9W 990 43
1200UTC 30.08.2023 132 31.3N 82.0W 993 44
0000UTC 31.08.2023 144 33.1N 78.5W 991 45
1200UTC 31.08.2023 156 34.4N 74.6W 991 48
0000UTC 01.09.2023 168 35.2N 70.6W 993 52
-------------------------------

4) 8/25 12Z run (latest):
track is SE of 8/25 0Z run but still landfalls near FL Big Bend; then moves NE to off the SE US; still a TS but a bit weaker than 0Z run due maybe to the further SE track:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 23.2N 85.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2023 84 23.2N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 29.08.2023 96 25.8N 83.9W 1002 38
0000UTC 30.08.2023 108 28.3N 82.7W 999 32
1200UTC 30.08.2023 120 31.7N 80.4W 1000 34
0000UTC 31.08.2023 132 32.8N 77.9W 1000 35
1200UTC 31.08.2023 144 33.9N 74.5W 1000 32
0000UTC 01.09.2023 156 34.3N 71.9W 1001 39
1200UTC 01.09.2023 168 34.2N 69.2W 1002 36

https://i.postimg.cc/wTf9m0Kr/uk.png

Euro and uk are similar a lot of times. Lets see if 12z euro trends back east a bit

[Spacecoast]

[CrazyC83]

This calls for additional balloon launches. That fast track to the Panhandle is very reasonable with a faster movement - and it would be less than 120 hours away. That's not a lot of time.

[Woofde]

The GFS goes from totally ignoring it, to the strongest model run of them all. Nice and consistent modeling

[Cat5James]

This calls for additional balloon launches. That fast track to the Panhandle is very reasonable with a faster movement - and it would be less than 120 hours away. That's not a lot of time.

Faster movement favors an eastern track. Models have slowed down timing of impact allowing high pressure to build in from the east.

[Gums]

Salute!

Hate to see some projections, especially ones with landfall following the foot steps of Ian. Sheesh. I remember Elena back in 1985.

In any case, the Gulf plays many games with these things, including mysterious dissipation sometimes.

And how do we pronouce the possible name Idalia? Like with short "i" as in "Italy" ? or stong "i" as in "idle"?

Gums sends...

[AnnularCane]

Salute!

Hate to see some projections, especially ones with landfall following the foot steps of Ian. Sheesh. I remember Elena back in 1985.

In any case, the Gulf plays many games with these things, including mysterious dissipation sometimes.

And how do we pronouce the possible name Idalia? Like with short "i" as in "Italy" ? or stong "i" as in "idle"?

Gums sends...

Someone here said "ee-DAL-ya" or something like that. I was thinking "i-DAIL-ya", which I thought was prettier, but okay.

[chris_fit]

12Z EURO running and coming in with a slightly better defined signature through 36 hours. Maybe a hair E but meaningless.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS


12Z CMC


12Z ICON


12Z Euro

[Spacecoast]

12Z GEFS Trough Probability:

[chris_fit]

[BobHarlem]

It seems like the 12z euro isn't staying over land as much (or as far into the yucatan) as the 0/6z.

[chris_fit]