ATL: IDALIA - Models

[jdjaguar]

When you realize the GFS and some others sniffed all this out happening in the gulf with a decent Hurricane chance, well over a week ago in some of Franklins south of DR/Haiti runs *mindblown*. Give the models some credit.

The GFS post on the first page of this thread has landfall extremely close to that predicted on last page of this thread.

That doesn't happen often!

GFS was the 'god" model for a very long time until temporarily displaced by the Euro.
They are both solid, and I look at both and blend tracks.

[NFLnut]

GFS was the 'god" model for a very long time until temporarily displaced by the Euro.
They are both solid, and I look at both and blend tracks.

GFS is great for intensity. EURO is (was) better for location. Now, GFS has come back and is toe to toe with EURO for location as well. EURO needs to improve for intensity.

[tolakram]

Tracking which hurricane model does best tonight. Using the 12Z runs.

11PM EDT = 958 mb

HWRF - 947
HAFSA - 954
HAFSB - 949

[Hurrilurker]

Tracking which hurricane model does best tonight. Using the 12Z runs.

11PM EDT

HWRF - 947
HAFSA - 954
HAFSB - 949

Seems they're in pretty good agreement anyway, the range is only 7mb. If they all miss significantly high or low, that would be interesting.

[Blown Away]

The GFS hasn’t revealed its right/east bias in days and was the left/west outlier most of the time. Very intriguing storm!

[Blown Away]

00z GFS… Slight E shift before landfall.

[LarryWx]

The GFS hasn’t revealed its right/east bias in days and was the left/west outlier most of the time. Very intriguing storm!

The GFS and CMC were both very far left outliers for Ian, much more than for Idalia.

[LarryWx]

-0Z CMC as expected in correction mode shifted vs the 12Z to the right significantly (~50 miles) to far NW Taylor County

-0Z ICON vs 18Z shifted very slightly left (~5 miles) to SE Taylor County

-0Z GFS vs 18Z shifted left 15 miles into far NW Taylor County

-0Z UKMET about same as 18Z in south central Taylor County

-0Z Euro vs 12Z shifted 20 miles right to C Taylor County

*Edited to add Euro

[galaxy401]

Have any of the models still show Idalia possibly turning around off the East Coast or has that idea been dropped?

[NFLnut]

Have any of the models still show Idalia possibly turning around off the East Coast or has that idea been dropped?

Only AVNI still showing a loop. I believe it is run with previous cycle GFS data so if I am correct, even it should drop the loop in the next cycle or two. All other models are showing eastward and some with a slight southward dip but then continuing either east or NNE. I believe the slow down and slight southward dip is because it gets caught up a little in the wake of Franklin and waits for a dropping high to push it away from CONUS.

[cycloneye]

Question for the model huggers. Between GFS and Euro, which of them nailed or came close to the Keaton Beach area landlall?

[LarryWx]

-0Z CMC as expected in correction mode shifted vs the 12Z to the right significantly (~50 miles) to far NW Taylor County

-0Z ICON vs 18Z shifted very slightly left (~5 miles) to SE Taylor County

-0Z GFS vs 18Z shifted left 15 miles into far NW Taylor County

-0Z UKMET about same as 18Z in south central Taylor County

-0Z Euro vs 12Z shifted 20 miles right to C Taylor County

*Edited to add Euro

With a Keaton Beach landfall (south central Taylor County), the winners from the 0Z runs are the UKMET and ICON (just about perfect). The Euro was ~10 miles too far left/NW. The GFS and CMC were ~30 miles too far left/NW.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Per 00z Euro, Idalia has a second shot at becoming a hurricane in the open Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

HWRF nailed the structure at landfall.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1696878634210873428

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1696891845345759743

[cycloneye]

The hurricane models in general did a great jub.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1696891210542006429

[OuterBanker]

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1696891845345759743

Actually I hope the NAM is wrong. According to it we will get between 8 and 10 inches.

[cycloneye]

Bizzare run from 12z GFS hanging on Idalia for several days and after 10 days it ejects NE to the subtropical Atlantic.

[IcyTundra]

Models are having a really hard time figuring out what Idalia is going to do next. Probably going to meander around the subtropics with no strong steering currents.

[TomballEd]

Models are having a really hard time figuring out what Idalia is going to do next. Probably going to meander around the subtropics with no strong steering currents.

Euro ensembles look at least interesting for NY/New England.