ATL: IDALIA - Models

[Blown Away]

12z ICON

[Ianswfl]

The ICON is trying to form another low in the Gulf on Idalias tail on the 12z??

[tolakram]

HAFS-A


HAFS-B

[tolakram]

HWRF

[tolakram]

HMON

[tolakram]

12Z UKMET

[USTropics]

ECMWF 12z, just a smidge west compared to 06z:

[USTropics]

It's very subtle, but notice the extension of ridging over northern Cuba at 200mb on the GFS, this nudges Idalia every so subtly to the NW during this timeframe:
https://i.imgur.com/KhvCpAU.png

This feature does not exist on the 12z ECMWF operational at the same timeframe:
https://i.imgur.com/jqVXbgb.png

While it'll be easy to call the GFS solution crazy, I would caution against that. The 12z ECMWF ensembles had split camps on this scenario, so the GFS solution is definitely not out of the realm of possibility:
https://i.imgur.com/PZ76reI.png

The difference is likely due to how the operational models handle Franklin. A stronger (and more westward) Franklin on the GFS vs ECMWF appears to create this extension of ridging through adiabatic processes.

In the end, it appears the GFS solution ended up verifying closer to reality. This is a lesson in why recency bias (how one models performs compared to another in a specific situation) and which model is "better" is not a useful way to use these tools.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JustinWx/status/1696584037404405912

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just to appreciate how quickly Idalia is going to ramp up tonight:

The 12z GFS initialized the storm at 989mb, about 10mb too high. Even considering that, the GFS drops the central pressure down to <957mb before landfall tomorrow morning.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[Hurricaneman]

My feeling looking at the global models and their ensembles this could very well be a problem again for Florida sometime next week as some of them loop back, something to keep an eye on

[Bluehawk]

My feeling looking at the global models and their ensembles this could very well be a problem again for Florida sometime next week as some of them loop back, something to keep an eye on

Hello! I have only posted a few times throughout the years, but I am always following this forum with a mix of gratitude, fascination, and desire to learn. We live in PB, so, for now, we are praying for whoever is in Idalia's path to be safe. I too was wondering about the models showing her returning for a "take two"—this time on the East Coast. I started seeing such posts on this forum since yesterday, I want to say, but, of course, I realize many things can change. What would be the time frame for that eventuality? And with what strength? Once again, I am beyond grateful for all the wealth of information to be found here!

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Slight E shift and pressure up 8mb to 966 compared to 12z

[cane5]

Hurricane Donna in the 60’s headed for Jacksonville and did a complete turnaround and hit Miami. I know because I was 8 years old and got to play in the eye.

Also Wilma did a turnaround in October and hit Miami to the shock of the citizenry.

[jdjaguar]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dtVVmQk3/GFS-Pressure-Lev-3h-MSLP-MSLP-18.png [/url]
18z GFS... Slight E shift and pressure up 8mb to 966 compared to 12z

now that's a graphic you don't see everyday!

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dtVVmQk3/GFS-Pressure-Lev-3h-MSLP-MSLP-18.png [/url]
18z GFS... Slight E shift and pressure up 8mb to 966 compared to 12z

now that's a graphic you don't see everyday!

2 weeks ago, all was quiet on the western atlantic front

[skillz305]

When you realize the GFS and some others sniffed all this out happening in the gulf with a decent Hurricane chance, well over a week ago in some of Franklins south of DR/Haiti runs *mindblown*. Give the models some credit.

[syfr]

When you realize the GFS and some others sniffed all this out happening in the gulf with a decent Hurricane chance, well over a week ago in some of Franklins south of DR/Haiti runs *mindblown*. Give the models some credit.

The GFS post on the first page of this thread has landfall extremely close to that predicted on last page of this thread.

That doesn't happen often!