ATL: LEE - Models

[RevanTheJedi96]

12z euro shifted way left/west at 192 hours out

https://i.imgur.com/Q5cyS2K.png

What is going on with these models? I'm so confused as to why some members here are so confident that Lee will be Teddy 2.0 or end up fish storm. Yes, I agree Nova Scotia has been a target constantly in these models but do people forget we are nearly a week away from Lee potentially making any impacts? No one from New England all the way to Cape Breton is out of the woods yet.

[edu2703]

Wow. Wasn't expecting the NW turn before landfall. Big west shift for Euro.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Wow. Wasn't expecting the NW turn before landfall. Big west shift for Euro.

It's almost like we are still a week+ away from any possible impacts. I remember when everyone was so sure Irma would hit Miami as a CAT 5 lol

[HurricaneBelle]

Euro going full Bob 1991 here

[BobHarlem]

Eastern Rhode Island.

[SecondBreakfast]

12z Euro is throwing water on the idea that this won't impact CONUS significantly. Many have harped this, but gonna say it again: it's not a fish storm until it's already well on its way out to sea.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857022688123682837/1150140468722679899/index.png
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857022688123682837/1150141032646852728/9-km_ECMWF_USA_Cities_Northeast_US_Precip_Type__MSLP.gif

That is a devastating model run for me and mine. Woof.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Eastern Rhode Island.

https://i.imgur.com/lLAI98M.png

WTH!? The Euro will either take the GEM crown as the Crazy Uncle or will be praised for all time if this outlier track verifies, I'm leaning towards the former right now.

[PavelGaborik10]

Eastern Rhode Island.

https://i.imgur.com/lLAI98M.png

WTH!? The Euro will either take the GEM crown as the Crazy Uncle or will be praised for all time if this outlier track verifies, I'm leaning towards the former right now.

I don't think anyone should be praising the Euro regardless for continuing to be a Western or Eastern outlier every single run.

It like many of the others has been tremendously struggling in this low confidence forecast.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Eastern Rhode Island.

https://i.imgur.com/lLAI98M.png

WTH!? The Euro will either take the GEM crown as the Crazy Uncle or will be praised for all time if this outlier track verifies, I'm leaning towards the former right now.

Lee has been forecasted to hit anywhere from New York to Nova Scotia, with some models going out to sea. A Rhode Island/Mass/Maine/Western Nova Scotia hit would be right smack dab in the center of that range. I don't see how the latest EURO run is all that crazy to begin with.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Eastern Rhode Island.

https://i.imgur.com/lLAI98M.png

WTH!? The Euro will either take the GEM crown as the Crazy Uncle or will be praised for all time if this outlier track verifies, I'm leaning towards the former right now.

Lee has been forecasted to hit anywhere from New York to Nova Scotia, with some models going out to sea. A Rhode Island/Mass/Maine/Western Nova Scotia hit would be right smack dab in the center of that range. I don't see how the latest EURO run is all that crazy to begin with.

Because the vast majority of model runs of all models have been consistently taking Lee either into Nova Scotia or OTS.

Another thing, the Euro is a day or more slower with Lee than the other models such as the GFS, either they will be right or the Euro will be right thus my comment.

[Tekken_Guy]

What would determine whether or not Lee heads towards Rhode Island or towards Maine/NS?

[BobHarlem]

What would determine whether or not Lee heads towards Rhode Island or towards Maine/NS?

Speed, Margot (and how it allows a ridge to build between, or not if too close, and the third system coming up from the MDR on the euro there.

In short the idea of Mid Atlantic to Atlantic Canada and OTS never really changed. People gravitating toward Canada and excluding the NE were ignoring Margot. All it really means is it's still up in the air.

[Tekken_Guy]

What would determine whether or not Lee heads towards Rhode Island or towards Maine/NS?

Speed, Margot (and how it allows a ridge to build between, or not if too close, and the third system coming up from the MDR on the euro there.

In short the idea of Mid Atlantic to Atlantic Canada and OTS never really changed. People gravitating toward Canada and excluding the NE were ignoring Margot. All it really means is it's still up in the air.

What is the key difference in the 12z Euro that sends Lee towards RI compared to the Maine/NS models?

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS has ~6 (12%) (9/17-19) US hits excluding operational with 3 ME and 3 MA. So, it has increased again though nowhere near as high as the 9/7 runs and hits are later on average.

9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA)
9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME)
9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 
9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY)
9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ)
9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA)
9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA)
9/6 0Z: 5 (10%)
9/5 12Z: 2 (4%)
9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 
9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 
9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

[RevanTheJedi96]

WTH!? The Euro will either take the GEM crown as the Crazy Uncle or will be praised for all time if this outlier track verifies, I'm leaning towards the former right now.

Lee has been forecasted to hit anywhere from New York to Nova Scotia, with some models going out to sea. A Rhode Island/Mass/Maine/Western Nova Scotia hit would be right smack dab in the center of that range. I don't see how the latest EURO run is all that crazy to begin with.

Because the vast majority of model runs of all models have been consistently taking Lee either into Nova Scotia or OTS.

Another thing, the Euro is a day or more slower with Lee than the other models such as the GFS, either they will be right or the Euro will be right thus my comment.

A ton of model runs and ensembles have hinted at Lee threading the gap between Maine and Nova Scotia. The machine learning models from a couple of days ago had that as their prediction. That's why I'm not so shocked that 12z had Lee hitting New England dead on. Really anywhere from Connecticut to Nova Scotia is in play here, with that out-to-sea possibility for sure still in the cards.

[Tekken_Guy]

If 12z verifies what would that mean for us in NY and NJ?

[PavelGaborik10]

Lee has been forecasted to hit anywhere from New York to Nova Scotia, with some models going out to sea. A Rhode Island/Mass/Maine/Western Nova Scotia hit would be right smack dab in the center of that range. I don't see how the latest EURO run is all that crazy to begin with.

Because the vast majority of model runs of all models have been consistently taking Lee either into Nova Scotia or OTS.

Another thing, the Euro is a day or more slower with Lee than the other models such as the GFS, either they will be right or the Euro will be right thus my comment.

A ton of model runs and ensembles have hinted at Lee threading the gap between Maine and Nova Scotia. The machine learning models from a couple of days ago had that as their prediction. That's why I'm not so shocked that 12z had Lee hitting New England dead on. Really anywhere from Connecticut to Nova Scotia is in play here, with that out-to-sea possibility for sure still in the cards.

The 12z Euro OP is way, way west of its ensembles FWIW.

I think the path to a New England hit still exists, I think it's simply less likely than Atlantic Canada, though as has been said numerous times in this thread, nothing is remotely set in stone still 7 or even 8 days out.

[Woofde]

As a New England member I tend to be very skeptical of model runs taking storms into the north east outside 5 days. While far from impossible, it takes special circumstances for that to happen. Obviously keeping my eye on this though, most here don't view ourselves as hurricane prone. The Euro showing that does lend more credence to the idea of a NE hit.

[LarryWx]

Last 5 GEFS US hit %: 16% (latest), 16%, 10%, 10%, 10%

Last 5 EPS US hit %: 12% (latest), 6%, 10%, 14%, 24%

Nothing has changed due to one operational Euro run hitting. Ensembles are the way to go and they've continued to suggest a low chance. They keep showing outliers run after run. Chance still remains low but nowhere near zero and thus this definitely bears watching. I'm still near 10%.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Last 5 GEFS US hit %: 16% (latest), 16%, 10%, 10%, 10%

Last 5 EPS US hit %: 12% (latest), 6%, 10%, 14%, 24%

Nothing has changed due to one operational Euro run hitting. Ensembles are the way to go and they've continued to suggest a low chance. They keep showing outliers run after run. Chance still remains low but nowhere near zero and thus this definitely bears watching. I'm still near 10%.

An excellent summation. At this point so early (a full week out or more), no one should get worried or excited because of one trend-deviated model run.