ATL: IDALIA - Models
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
I think the 18z GFS initialization was poor. Too weak, too far west.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
BobHarlem wrote:Surprised no one posted the 12GFS Idialia loop back into Florida then Louisiana, so here it is.
https://i.imgur.com/1nGNrgO.gif
EURO hints at a stall NE of the Bahamas but not a loop. GFS seems to be an outlier swooping back into Flagler county. But I also noticed this and posted it to my Fakebook peeps around 1pm.
Though I don't remember it going into LA. It circles into Flagler and then a NE cut back into the Atlantic.
Last edited by NFLnut on Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
The 18z GFS with that loop around and back into Florida and back up the west coast is not even remotely funny. Thank goodness, so far it is the only one that has been showing that. After the GFS poor performance over the last week, I'll take each of these runs with a grain of salt. Hard to have any confidence in it.
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Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:The 18z GFS with that loop around and back into Florida and back up the west coast is not even remotely funny. Thank goodness, so far it is the only one that has been showing that. After the GFS poor performance over the last week, I'll take each of these runs with a grain of salt. Hard to have any confidence in it.
Yeah .. I had Hurricane Jeanne flashbacks when I saw that nonsense. Jeanne was almost outta here and then someone said something she didn't like and circled back and pummeled our arses! Everybody say only "nice" things about Idalia. Please.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Yeah this Hafs-A run goes pinhole and drops 25 mb in 6 hours. Yikes.SunnyThoughts wrote:
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Woofde wrote:Yeah this Hafs-A run goes pinhole and drops 25 mb in 6 hours. Yikes.
Very slight shift west for HAFS-A and HAFS-B..
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Noles2016 wrote:Woofde wrote:Yeah this Hafs-A run goes pinhole and drops 25 mb in 6 hours. Yikes.
Very slight shift west for HAFS-A and HAFS-B..
HMON slight shift east. Seems like they're all zeroing in on Taylor County.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Noles2016 wrote:Noles2016 wrote:
Very slight shift west for HAFS-A and HAFS-B..
HMON slight shift east. Seems like they're all zeroing in on Taylor County.
Far enough north, it might not but a few showers in tampa in that route, depends obviously on size of storm etc. But if you just go by these models "Radars" like the gfs, it's all offshore
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
I read this first as "inches/hr" rain rate and being in ECentral NC, I was going to go buy a canoe.
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I'm not a meteorologist, I'm an electronics engineer. While I can probably fix your toaster oven, you're not going to learn about storms from me!
New Mexico had no hurricanes. Then I moved to NC right before Fran.....
New Mexico had no hurricanes. Then I moved to NC right before Fran.....
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Current position of Idalia as of 8pm is further east than the starting point of the 18z GFS. It's not much, we're talking 20 miles or so, but it's there.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Hafs shows a consistently front loaded storm. Would hate to have a house in its path if that pans out.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Well based on some of the ensembles, Florida might get a round two visit from her.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
No...just no...that's not allowed. One turn per storm in the GoM and that's it!
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Looking at the HAFS-B simulated IR, pretty accurate depiction of this evenings blowup.
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