ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system has become better organized since yesterday,
and environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development this week. A tropical depression is likely to form
around midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Blown Away]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system has become better organized since yesterday,
and environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development this week. A tropical depression is likely to form
around midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Seems the NHC bent their cone back more W at 8am compared to NW turn at 2am??

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system has become better organized since yesterday,
and environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development this week. A tropical depression is likely to form
around midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Seems the NHC bent their cone back more W at 8am compared to NW turn at 2am??

Yes. More closer to PR.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2023090312, , BEST, 0, 105N, 270W, 30, 1010, DB

[WalterWhite]

AL, 95, 2023090312, , BEST, 0, 105N, 270W, 30, 1010, DB

Up to 30 knots

[gatorcane]

Coming into view on the NHC wide Atlantic view geocolor satellite. I can see why the models are more enthusiastic as it is looking larger and has more convection:

[zzzh]

[Cachondo23]

At this moment, 60% of this future storm missing the islands and 40% getting over the NE Caribbean?

[gatorcane]

Continues to look better with signs of organization:

[Nimbus]

NHC might have trended west with the cone due to drier environment further west.
Earlier in the season its expected they will track weak and west till they find more moisture.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1698354454175560079

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1698385071093498124

[Hurrilurker]

Seems likely to be a fish but if that trough gets cut off or doesn't dig down quite as far south to pull it, then things get very ominous, very quickly.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for further development, and this
system is expected to become a tropical depression around midweek.
Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Jr0d]

Seems likely to be a fish but if that trough gets cut off or doesn't dig down quite as far south to pull it, then things get very ominous, very quickly.

Still may impact the Caribbean islands.

Climo favors a recurve as most of these 'long trackers' eventually find a weakness and/or a trough steers them away from the CONUS.

It does seem like the models are in a good agreement that it will turn north in about 200 hours, unfortunately 8 days out is not reliable enough to have good confidence.

The trough being slower than forecast and the storm moving west just a little faster than forecasted would bring it very close to CONUS.

[cycloneye]

Seems likely to be a fish but if that trough gets cut off or doesn't dig down quite as far south to pull it, then things get very ominous, very quickly.

The all clear is not a sure thing. The NE Caribbean islands are the first in line, but hopefully, it will move north from them.

[chaser1]

Seems likely to be a fish but if that trough gets cut off or doesn't dig down quite as far south to pull it, then things get very ominous, very quickly.

I way disagree. With the EURO, GFS, & ICON depiction of building mid-level heights as this system approaches 50W I can't help but think this could be a real Puerto Rico & LEE(ward) threat. The disturbance seems to have a real healthy outflow pattern and the appearance of trying to consolidate. It certainly wouldn't take much for NHC to tag it as a TD. Whether it recurves once west of PR is a crapshoot but I do sure hope that it doesn't slow down any. That timing could correspond with bridging high pressure over the Southeast US in the wake of the E. Coast trough pulling out (too early to worry about that yet).

[chaser1]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for further development, and this
system is expected to become a tropical depression around midweek.
Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Barring any entraining dry air which could temporarily suppress convection, I wouldn't be surprised if "midweek" were suddenly tomorrow (Monday) night.

[cycloneye]

Keeps moving west at 270 degrees.

AL, 95, 2023090318, , BEST, 0, 105N, 283W, 30, 1010, DB