ATL: IDALIA - Models

[gatorcane]

That would cause serious issues for the Tampa area if that happened, 18Z HWRF:

[Stormlover1970]

i think position of the coc more east vs west over yucatán will be key if more over water and strengthens more quickly and becomes a hurricane then it should go poleward into panhandle more than peninsula. Also think heat content maybe not considered in the models as to intensity. this is a very interesting storm.

I believe the models do take heat content as well as several other factors in their forecast

[CronkPSU]

That would cause serious issues for the Tampa area if that happened, 18Z HWRF:

https://i.postimg.cc/qvhVzDd3/hwrf-mslp-wind-93-L-fh84-111.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/BnrWD5qw/hwrf-sat-IR-93-L-fh78-108.gif

Would be bad for the entire I4 corridor…

[Jr0d]

That would cause serious issues for the Tampa area if that happened, 18Z HWRF:

https://i.postimg.cc/qvhVzDd3/hwrf-mslp-wind-93-L-fh84-111.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/BnrWD5qw/hwrf-sat-IR-93-L-fh78-108.gif

I figure if I take the HWRF top wind and divide by 2, we will have a more realistic solution.

I knew it would be bullish....but wow. Also the angle is horrible for surge in Tampa Bay.

[jlauderdal]

That would cause serious issues for the Tampa area if that happened, 18Z HWRF:

That setup would provide some very active weather for the whole peninsula...in reality, its the hwrf so its intensity is overdone

[cycloneye]

First run of the hurricane models.

[floridasun]

First run of the hurricane models.

https://i.imgur.com/M7nnrXP.png

models have it going up up alway

[jlauderdal]

First run of the hurricane models.

https://i.imgur.com/M7nnrXP.png

models have it going up up alway

Up up and away from.se florida

[tropicwatch]

Spaghetti Model Plots are coming together nicely.

[NDG]

18z Euro has the vortex right by coast of the Yucatan over the next couple of days instead of further inland like previous runs which results on a further east position by 90hr.

[Ianswfl]

18z Euro has the vortex right by coast of the Yucatan over the next couple of days instead of further inland like previous runs which results on a further east position by 90hr.

https://i.imgur.com/A8uBhfy.gif

Much more east this run! Only goes to 90hr but at that heading looks south of tampa. Luckily only 1000mb so it wont have much time to ramp up beyong maybe 100mph

[gatorcane]

18Z Euro shifts right and if you extrapolate out would put this very close to the Tampa area likely landfalling north of it but south of the 12Z which had landfall near Cedar Key:

[chris_fit]

Decent E shift at 90hrs on the 18z Euro

[Kohlecane]

https://i.imgur.com/E8atiBB.png

Hernando Beach...ouch

[Blown Away]

18Z Euro shifts right and if you extrapolate out would put this very close to the Tampa area likely landfalling north of it but south of the 12Z which had landfall near Cedar Key:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZKRN1prR/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-fh0-90.gif

Climatology always says no way to Sarasota to Tampa, so 93L will adjust N from Cedar Key W or Ft Myers to the S.

[LarryWx]

18Z UKMET

The 18/6Z UK runs go out only 60 hours, which gets us to 2AM EDT on 8/28 on the new 18Z run. So, I compared 8/28 2AM EDT positions/SLP on the runs of the last two days to give an idea of how the 18Z UK run compares:

Run: 2AM 8/28 position/SLP, landfall/track

8/24 0Z: over W Cuba/1005, Key West to Everglades to Melbourne
8/24 12Z: just SW of W tip of Cuba/1003, Cedar Key to Jax
8/25 0Z: 75mi N of Cancun 1003, Big Bend to Savannah
8/25 12Z: Cancun 1006, New Port Richey/Hernando to St Augustine
8/25 18Z: 50 mi NE of Cancun 1002..so similar track to 12Z but bit faster/stronger since over water

[chris_fit]

18z mean looks to be W of the Ops. Big bend area. Stronger.

[Spacecoast]

18z mean looks to be W of the Ops. Big bend area. Stronger.

[chris_fit]

18z mean looks to be W of the Ops. Big bend area. Stronger.

https://i.ibb.co/7kSYXSh/ef38.jpg

Maybe not as far W as I thought. Spaghettios looked a little different lol. Thanks for posting this.

[NDG]

Just a reminder.