ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

The issue with Franklin is that its is about the same latitude and far enough away that it will enhance a poleward outflow channel for 93L

[GCANE]

I love Levi and IMHO he is one of the best mets out there.
However he missed the LLC.
Also the anticyclone will push all the convective debris into the dry slot to the SE of the LLC.

[Spacecoast]

UW-CIMSS:
RED "I" is 18Z NHC estimate of 19N, 85.5W

[chaser1]

That large swath of low-level westerly winds is just nuts for a developing August CAG?! I am starting to think that there may be a potential for a lot of Florida real-estate to see 3-6" of rain ahead and to the right of center and perhapa 5"-8" along the Fla W. Coast from Tampa northward. Btw, it does appear to be coming together a bit quicker then I would've expected too. Hmmmm, the "I-Storm", late August CAG, unusually warm SST's. What could possibly go wrong

[cycloneye]

Where 93L will track is going to be be along very warm waters.

 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1695187630713897302

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with an area of low pressure over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western
Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Jr0d]

I know i have location bias plus other a little bit of PTSD from getting flooded last year in Key West from Ian, but this looks like it might be a bit more east than the models suggested, so my impacts could be more significant than originally thought.

6 hours ago it looked like a nothing burger, now it looks like something is coming together quickly.

Time will tell. Not liking what I see right now

[BobHarlem]

Agree on the surge potential here.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1695218173144879517

[weeniepatrol]

last light on 93

[Ianswfl]

last light on 93

https://imgur.com/ooMUu5G

Seems to be developing faster and more to the east. Odds are of PTC sometime during the day tomorrow?

[GCANE]

One thing to consider is when this gets in the GoM, it will likely track over a good portion of the loop current.
The higher the surface wind speeds, the more energy it will pick up from the water.

[cycloneye]

@watkinstrack
Looking like some very concentrated upward vertical motion (circled) near the developing low center of #Invest93l

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1695226609588969786

[beachnut]

I know i have location bias plus other a little bit of PTSD from getting flooded last year in Key West from Ian, but this looks like it might be a bit more east than the models suggested, so my impacts could be more significant than originally thought.

6 hours ago it looked like a nothing burger, now it looks like something is coming together quickly.

Time will tell. Not liking what I see right now

Me neither, but I'm not too concerned - yet. Just about have the house all put back together after Ian. New roof and dock repairs done, impact windows on order are 6 weeks out though. If last year taught me anything it's to have more of everything on hand, batteries, led lanterns, power blocks, food kits, a lot more water, etc. Big lesson learned was not having an FM radio with weather bands for news and updates for after the power goes out and for after the storm, got one this year.

[Ianswfl]

I know i have location bias plus other a little bit of PTSD from getting flooded last year in Key West from Ian, but this looks like it might be a bit more east than the models suggested, so my impacts could be more significant than originally thought.

6 hours ago it looked like a nothing burger, now it looks like something is coming together quickly.

Time will tell. Not liking what I see right now

Me neither, but I'm not too concerned - yet. Just about have the house all put back together after Ian. New roof and dock repairs done, impact windows on order are 6 weeks out though. If last year taught me anything it's to have more of everything on hand, batteries, led lanterns, power blocks, food kits, a lot more water, etc. Big lesson learned was not having an FM radio with weather bands for news and updates for after the power goes out and for after the storm, got one this year.

If this were to come further south in our area ( I still think Tampa) I'm thinking around 80mph. We can handle that. Except people who didn't get a new roof yet and along the beaches even just a 5 foot surge would cause problems with Ian rebuilding. I'm not worried since I got a new roof just a couple months before Ian.

[robbielyn]

i think a stronger storm will go poleward vs weaker going more east. Also wonder if models factor in the high sst's the gulf has

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2023082600, , BEST, 0, 19.0N, 86.1W, 20, 1007, DB

[Iceresistance]

UW-CIMSS:
RED "I" is 18Z NHC estimate of 19N, 85.5W

https://i.ibb.co/D7gYyB3/ef37.jpg

There is literally excellent outflow potential!

[GCANE]

I don't think I have ever seen an anti-cyclone so apparent on WV as this

[NDG]

Exactly what I have been saying all along about the vector shear becoming parallel to the deep layer flow before landfall with an opportunity strengthen quickly before landfall.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1695235946621669531



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1695237695659020360

[Sciencerocks]