ATL: HAROLD - Remnants - Discussion

[Steve]

Got a piece of a band coming through here where it's currently raining for the second time in a month or so. Shower looks to have missed the wildfire I'm watching out of my office window which I was hoping it was going to get so I could watch that.

Some showers with the outer bands over towards NOLA. I’m hoping for something similar over here tomorrow. Hopefully I-10 isn’t a wall.

Hopeful for y’all man. Chances are usually better for rain away from the core with sloppier Gulf storms. Maybe most of it will focus closer in when it’s wrapping up at landfall. We about to get our 3rd piece in and you can see some storms firing off near New Iberia. So obviously we can’t tell how far north into Texas any rain might get. But they ought to see some at least fairly close to Galveston at least near the coast. New QPF 5-day.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1692637723

[Sciencerocks]

[SconnieCane]

A male H-named storm on its way to SE Texas on the fourth week of August...

Forecast for PTC 9 has it going more toward deep S Texas, just north of the Mexico border. Verbatim center of the cone track would be a Port Mansfield landfall.

[tolakram]

Good review, with satellite loop videos. Harvey took a NW turn, which gave it more time to strengthen.

https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING
TEXAS...
...FLOODING RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 91.0W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[wxman57]

Could tighten up to a 50kt TS prior to landfall. Good thing, wind-wise, is that it's moving across northern Laguna Madre into the King Ranch in Kennedy County. Unpopulated except for a lot of cows. Rain will cover a much larger area than the wind, though.

[Snowman67]

Could tighten up to a 50kt TS prior to landfall. Good thing, wind-wise, is that it's moving across northern Laguna Madre into the King Ranch in Kennedy County. Unpopulated except for a lot of cows. Rain will cover a much larger area than the wind, though.

Your wall has been pretty effective at blocking cold air. Might you have any tools to throw a stray shower or two in SE Texas??? 110F officially at Hooks airport here in Tomball yesterday...

[wxman57]

Could tighten up to a 50kt TS prior to landfall. Good thing, wind-wise, is that it's moving across northern Laguna Madre into the King Ranch in Kennedy County. Unpopulated except for a lot of cows. Rain will cover a much larger area than the wind, though.

Your wall has been pretty effective at blocking cold air. Might you have any tools to throw a stray shower or two in SE Texas??? 110F officially at Hooks airport here in Tomball yesterday...

If you'd like, I could open up parts of the wall to our north to let that hotter air move south. I really don't see anything to change the situation down here. Yesterday's GFS had highs around 80 and rain all Labor Day weekend. Now it has 100+ temps and no rain.

[StormPyrate]

Could tighten up to a 50kt TS prior to landfall. Good thing, wind-wise, is that it's moving across northern Laguna Madre into the King Ranch in Kennedy County. Unpopulated except for a lot of cows. Rain will cover a much larger area than the wind, though.

And major space facility, SpaceX is there

[wxman57]

Could tighten up to a 50kt TS prior to landfall. Good thing, wind-wise, is that it's moving across northern Laguna Madre into the King Ranch in Kennedy County. Unpopulated except for a lot of cows. Rain will cover a much larger area than the wind, though.

And major space facility, SpaceX is there

Space X is in Boca Chica, well south of landfall. They won't get much wind at all. We're forecasting for them.

[StormPyrate]

Could tighten up to a 50kt TS prior to landfall. Good thing, wind-wise, is that it's moving across northern Laguna Madre into the King Ranch in Kennedy County. Unpopulated except for a lot of cows. Rain will cover a much larger area than the wind, though.

And major space facility, SpaceX is there

Space X is in Boca Chica, well south of landfall. They won't get much wind at all. We're forecasting for them.

that is awesome, they appear to be taking prudent precautions today

[hohnywx]

https://www.kiiitv.com/article/news/local/voluntary-evacuation-order-for-rivera-baffin-bay-loyola-beach/503-c3d60014-5cad-474a-a5ba-355b0dc9f6e7

KLEBERG COUNTY, Texas — Kleberg County Judge Rudy Madrid has issued voluntary evacuation orders for low-lying areas of Rivera, Baffin Bay and Loyola Beach as a tropical system is expected to turn into Tropical Storm Harold and make landfall in South Texas Tuesday morning. NAS Kingsville has also ordered the evacuation of the RV park on the installation.

[wxman57]

I still don't see a well-defined LLC in the recon reports. Should be one by the NHC advisory this evening. I don't know if recon will be there to confirm.

[cycloneye]

It has a closed circulation.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES
SOUTH TEXAS...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 91.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES




Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago and data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the system now has a closed and
fairly well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep
convection has been persisting over the central and western Gulf of
Mexico. The system now meets the definition of a tropical
depression, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The
far outer bands of the depression are nearing the coast of Texas and
northern Mexico, and they are expected to begin moving inland
tonight.

The depression is moving fairly quickly to the west at 16 kt on the
south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the central
United States. A continued quick west or west-northwest motion is
expected, taking the system over southern Texas by midday Tuesday.
The models are in fairly good agreement, and little change was made
to the previous NHC track forecast.

Strengthening is expected, but the limited time over water and its
current broad structure suggest that rapid intensification is
unlikely. The system is expected to move inland between the 12- and
24-hour points so it is possible that the system gets a little
stronger than the forecast intensity values.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from the depression is expected across South
Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and
urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and northern
Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible landslides in
mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
tonight through Tuesday morning.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area beginning early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 25.2N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 25.8N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0600Z 28.1N 101.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

I guess the NHC figured it was better to make the upgrade early, since it was going to happen. Note that they only went 40 kts for intensity, but I think it will be stronger at landfall, which is between their 12 and 24 hr points. Their track agrees with mine, so it has to be perfect.

[Rgv20]

I guess the NHC figured it was better to make the upgrade early, since it was going to happen. Note that they only went 40 kts for intensity, but I think it will be stronger at landfall, which is between their 12 and 24 hr points. Their track agrees with mine, so it has to be perfect.

18zNAM 3KM has it deepening to 989MB and has it traversing right thru the populated RGV tomorrow. Good thing this TD is racing westward and will run out of time.

[Nimbus]

Kind of a dry circulation but where there is lightning there must be some rain.

[wxman57]

Kind of a dry circulation but where there is lightning there must be some rain.

Don't make that assumption using radar. At that distance, the radar beam would be over 30,000 ft up. Texas coastal radar is close to the west side, but the center is over 300 miles from Slidell, LA radar.

[GCANE]

Mid-level rotation appears to be more evident