ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[JetFuel_SE]

Code Red

MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A small area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, slow development is
expected and this system will likely become a tropical depression
early next week while it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230721/9cfb2c282d48b4e3e010d809072b8e00.jpg

Idk how they could possibly call this convection "disorganized."

[Iceresistance]

Code Red

MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A small area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, slow development is
expected and this system will likely become a tropical depression
early next week while it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230721/9cfb2c282d48b4e3e010d809072b8e00.jpg

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/736018608366551111/1132089094520975440/79abae46-f79b-410e-a7d5-a136a2d5141f.gif
Idk how they could possibly call this convection "disorganized."

Well, it is still somewhat displaced from the CoC.

[hipshot]

Code Red

MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A small area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, slow development is
expected and this system will likely become a tropical depression
early next week while it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230721/9cfb2c282d48b4e3e010d809072b8e00.jpg

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/736018608366551111/1132089094520975440/79abae46-f79b-410e-a7d5-a136a2d5141f.gif
Idk how they could possibly call this convection "disorganized."

Well, it is still somewhat displaced from the CoC.

I'm not very experienced but I can't figure out where the CoC is, can anyone help. I guess it would help if we could get an ASCAT pass.

[Iceresistance]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The Lesser Antilles need to watch the progress of this system.

[wxman57]

I'm not very experienced but I can't figure out where the CoC is, can anyone help. I guess it would help if we could get an ASCAT pass.

"X" marks the spot of the center. Last good visible before sunset. Center is displaced east of the convection by about 40-50 miles. It's near 12.3N/39.5W in this visible shot.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2023072200, , BEST, 0, 123N, 402W, 25, 1012, LO

[wxman57]

Idk how they could possibly call this convection "disorganized."

These enhanced IR shots can be confusing. The center is nowhere near that burst of convection. Thus, it's disorganized.

[Iceresistance]

Per WeatherNerds, ASCAT is coming to 95L

[GCANE]

High helicity tower almost dead on LLC

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 212220.jpg

IR Satellite analysis bordering on a TD

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 2307220000

[GCANE]

GFS keeps shear less than 10 knts for the next 4 days

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 210600.png

[Blown Away]

AL, 95, 2023072200, , BEST, 0, 123N, 402W, 25, 1012, LO

Luis, 95L keeps gaining latitude and delays this SW dip. HAFS are showing a flatter dip and are N outliers near PR down the road.

[cycloneye]

Per WeatherNerds, ASCAT is coming to 95L

But when? We need one to see how is the structure of 95L tonight.

[Kingarabian]

Based on the GFS's IR simulation, convection wise 95L is 19 hours ahead of the 18z GFS.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

I don't think that counts as disorganized, either. The convection clearly seems associated with the LLC, just displaced to the west. Sheared, yes, but organized enough to me (the question is if it persists).

[Kingarabian]

I don't think that counts as disorganized, either. The convection clearly seems associated with the LLC, just displaced to the west. Sheared, yes, but organized enough to me (the question is if it persists).

They probably want to see if it persists and doesn't go poof. But... this is what we were saying yesterday and here we are.

[zzzh]

I wonder where those easterly shear are from? SHIPS output indicates very weak shear.

[Blown Away]

I don't think that counts as disorganized, either. The convection clearly seems associated with the LLC, just displaced to the west. Sheared, yes, but organized enough to me (the question is if it persists).

Agree, there is a broad partially exposed LLC w/ convection all on W side. Still moving W but appears to be slowing down.

[zzzh]

LLC appears moving to the east?
Convection still moving to the west.

[chaser1]

Very dynamic! Yes, what would appear as the LLC has essentially been "spit out" a few degrees to the east of the continual bursting. That is some vigorous mid level there and I honestly would have bet against it having maintained itself throughout the day as it has. I believe that the culprit of greatest influence is a massive easterly surge approaching from the east and northeast. How well this mid level vort will continue to fire off explosive convection is an interesting question, but I get the feeling that we will very soon begin to see a motion that is south of due west commence between now and noon tomorrow. Up to now it's been fascinating to watch it spew outflow in all directions but it's becoming apparent that something is beginning "squash" this disturbance resulting in what has turned into a better defined low to mid level circulation to now appear as if its becoming stretched west to east. For the moment, I don't think we're seeing any kind of "season signal" or El Nino impact. I think we're basically seeing "July", perhaps enhanced by very warm SST's.