ATL: DON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

NHC should downgrade Don in the next advisory. Zero convection, disorganized circulation. More of a remnant low than a depression. May get up to minimal TS strength over the next day or two, but no hurricane.

Calvin also had close to zero convection a day or two ago. Can't exactly say that today.

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS has on Friday about its strongest run yet for Don with 994 mb/strong TS, but it's the untrustworthy GFS.

[wxman57]

Good ASCAT hit over Don at 13Z. Wind 25-30 kts. Definitely not a TS.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_METC/zooms/WMBds110.png

[cycloneye]

Hanging on.

AL, 05, 2023071900, , BEST, 0, 344N, 390W, 35, 1006, TS

[Sciencerocks]

[MHC Tracking]

Bursting significantly more convection now, and all dynamic models take it to 65-70 kt. Future looks fairly bright for Don

[cycloneye]

Organizing much better now with an inner core forming and may be a bit stronger in the next 12-24 hours.

[LarryWx]

Organizing much better now with an inner core forming and may be a bit stronger in the next 12-24 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/e1q7d4G.gif

Still virtually no chance for it to get to H status?

[cycloneye]

Organizing much better now with an inner core forming and may be a bit stronger in the next 12-24 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/e1q7d4G.gif

Still virtually no chance for it to get to H status?

Don't expect that, but you never know as things in weather are always changing.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Up to 40kt.

AL, 05, 2023071918, , BEST, 0, 338N, 399W, 40, 1004, TS

[aspen]

Recovering quite nicely today with plenty of concentrated convective activity. I’m highly doubtful this’ll become a hurricane, but a peak of 50-55 kt is certainly possible. This will have quite an odd track for July once all is said and done.

[cycloneye]

The new peak intensity is bumped up to 50kt.

24H 20/1800Z 34.1N 42.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 34.8N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 35.9N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

[Hurricane2022]

[Sciencerocks]

[cainjamin]

Don looks like it wants to overachieve. Convection is starting to wrap around the center, still some easterly shear to contend with but I wouldn't be surprised if it makes a run at hurricane intensity. 18z GFS showing the most intensification it has yet as well. HAFS-A is forecasting a hurricane but HAFS-B is not. It'll be interesting to see which one gets it closer.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kt.

AL, 05, 2023072000, , BEST, 0, 338N, 406W, 45, 1002, TS

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]