ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

I can't help thinking that the huge ridge over Oklahoma/Texas has to have an affect pulling this storm more towards the north and
northwest. It isn't supposed to move back west for a few days yet and our temps don't indicate it is moving much in the near term.

If the ridge stays firm, it goes farther east, not west. Ridges don't pull a storm toward them.

I thought due to the air flow of clockwise ridges with a counterclockwise low that it would pull it west if the ridge was
to its north. Thks, I didn't realize that it wouldn't steer the storm more northward.

[NDG]

CoC right near buoy 42056 with light winds, pitch black from storms, pressure down to 1008mb.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/buoyca ... 5_1910.jpg

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... m=M&tz=STN

[gatorcane]

Vorticity on the increase and looks to be moving NNW:

Use the time step feature: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... m=&time=-4

[NDG]

Have to love genesis of a tropical cyclone, which is coming together faster than what I was expecting.

[Ianswfl]

Have to love genesis of a tropical cyclone, which is coming together faster than what I was expecting.

https://imgur.com/MlyNXoW

More east than most of the models. I think the Euro has a better handle on the track.

[GCANE]

Getting convection firing with a lot of helicity very close or right on the LLC

[cycloneye]

NWS Miami:

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1695165161823424952

[Blown Away]

Getting convection firing with a lot of helicity very close or right on the LLC

What lat/long do you see the LLC?

[GCANE]

Getting convection firing with a lot of helicity very close or right on the LLC

What lat/long do you see the LLC?

18.5N 86W

[Nimbus]

Getting convection firing with a lot of helicity very close or right on the LLC

The convection is near 18.5N -86W light shear from the south may have displaced that a little.
Euro closed off a low near 19.7N at 18 hours tomorrow and 12Z GFS closed the low off near 18.5N but at 18 hours.
Might be good news but wait and see how it moves, whether the 12ZGFS trough break was an anomalous run.

[gatorcane]

New Levi Cowan video where he explains all the factors:



Link: https://youtu.be/qHRnrXIV2V8

[BobHarlem]

[GCANE]

Too much outflow boundaries from the heavy convection to the north for it to take off.
Once that dies down, should see some good convection over the LLC.

[Steve]

Have to love genesis of a tropical cyclone, which is coming together faster than what I was expecting.

https://imgur.com/MlyNXoW

More east than most of the models. I think the Euro has a better handle on the track.

That’s because it’s going to take a couple of days to organize. I always thought it would go south or west of the Big Bend/armpit area. Not sure if you are down there but your alias references SWFL and have a few posts leaning that way.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

I still see an upper trof to its west in the NE Gulf with SW wind shear across the top Tuesday night/Wed. No anticyclone over it.

Hopefully you're right 57, we definitely don't need to lose yet another I name!

I have it passing north of Jacksonville and Savannah and cutting across Charleston Thursday.

[Ianswfl]

Have to love genesis of a tropical cyclone, which is coming together faster than what I was expecting.

https://imgur.com/MlyNXoW

More east than most of the models. I think the Euro has a better handle on the track.

That’s because it’s going to take a couple of days to organize. I always thought it would go south or west of the Big Bend/armpit area. Not sure if you are down there but your alias references SWFL and have a few posts leaning that way.

ICON just shifted back east to landfall Venice Sarasota area 996mb. What is to note on the ICOn 18z is more moisture. It looks better organized than past runs despite landfall further south. Maybe a trend towards more favorable environment?

[GCANE]

All the heavy convection to the north of the LLC and popups over Honduras is helping to reinforce the anticyclone and moisten the mid-levels of the troposphere.

[robbielyn]

I like Levi Cowan’s youtube videos the best. He tells us things the others don’t. Here we r thinking this is rapidly organizing compared to what we thought, and it turns what looks like organization is thunderstorms bubbling up but collapsing because the dry stable air coming from franklin is impeding sustained thunderstorms temporarily til a couple of days. Him and NHC are the ones to rely on for explaining conditions in the atmosphere in clear yet very fine detail. He doesn’t always say what i’m hoping to hear but I know it’s reliable.

[GCANE]

The 00Z runs tomorrow should give a good picture of what will happen the GoM