ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

This is what Franklin looks like now. The circulation is at the upper levels 500mb, looking at the models 96L combines with the remains of Franklin.

This is an upper-level low, not Franklin. Franklin currently locates west of the Iberian Peninsula and although it is heading northward to cooler water and is affected by some southerly shear, it has produced sustained and quite deep convection (with cloud top temperature between -50 and -60 °C) trough the day. ASCAT measurements also indicate well-defined circulation with 35-40 kt winds, so it may classifiable.

https://i.imgur.com/6ZG3A3n.gif

https://i.imgur.com/1NL7VUl.png

https://i.imgur.com/MlBlGBK.png

Fixed it.

[DanieleItalyRm]

This is an upper-level low, not Franklin. Franklin currently locates west of the Iberian Peninsula and although it is heading northward to cooler water and is affected by some southerly shear, it has produced sustained and quite deep convection (with cloud top temperature between -50 and -60 °C) trough the day. ASCAT measurements also indicate well-defined circulation with 35-40 kt winds, so it may classifiable.

I'm amazed that no one talks of this system! The system west of Portugal looks like a sheared Tropical Storm or at least a subtropical storm!

[cycloneye]

Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Post-Tropical
Cyclone Franklin, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the
Azores, has become a little better organized today. Although
environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for
additional development this system could briefly acquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or so,
while it moves northeastward or northward over the northeastern
Atlantic. By Friday, further development is not expected as the
system is forecast to move into unfavorable environmental
conditions, which should cause it to weaken. For additional
information, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[TallyTracker]

It’s wild that the NHC still has 20% odds on Franklin and it’s between 45N and 50N. That’s closer to the North Pole than the equator!

[cycloneye]

Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Post-Tropical
Cyclone Franklin, located a few hundred miles west-northwest of the
northwestern coast of Spain, have not become better organized and
the system remains frontal. The chances of subtropical or tropical
development have decreased as the system meanders northwest of Spain
and Portugal. Environmental conditions are expected to become even
more unfavorable for development by tonight. For additional
information, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

The final bye.

Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Post-Tropical
Cyclone Franklin, located a few hundred miles west-northwest of the
northwestern coast of Spain, have diminished this afternoon.
Environmental conditions are becoming increasing unfavorable, and
development is no longer expected, as the system meanders northwest
of Spain and Portugal. For additional information, including gale
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

[aspen]

It’s funny how model support for Franklin’s regeneration pretty much died the second it was put on the TWO.

[bob rulz]

I think it may have been briefly classifiable based on that satellite image. Will be interesting to see if the NHC agrees in the postseason evaluation. That would certainly be quite the latitude to have a storm on the BT.