ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I’m surprised at how few postings have been made about a storm of such potential danger.

If hurricanes aren't expected to hit Florida, most people seem to lose interest in them.

For better or worse Florida jits carry the traffic on this site. I wouldn't say they're out of the woods yet

As one of those Florida men I won’t feel good until it turns. I’ve seen it too many times where the turn gets delayed and the track keeps shifting left. Hopefully that’s not the case here. I’m not sure what I would do with something like this.

[verruckt]

If hurricanes aren't expected to hit Florida, most people seem to lose interest in them.

For better or worse Florida jits carry the traffic on this site. I wouldn't say they're out of the woods yet

As one of those Florida men I won’t feel good until it turns. I’ve seen it too many times where the turn gets delayed and the track keeps shifting left. Hopefully that’s not the case here. I’m not sure what I would do with something like this.

Same here, not very far north of you and an OG Floridaman...

This exact setup has happened too many times and changed. Even in recent times. Irma was one of them.

[gatorcane]

I am confident Lee will not be coming to Florida. The model consensus is a strong recurve well east of us. Consider getting out to enjoy the nice weather with lower humidities, nice change and feels somewhat like fall. Maybe Lee will bring us some nice cool NE winds similar to what Idalia brought when she was out in the Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Lee does not appear to be a Florida threat. There will be an upper-level low over the SE U.S. next week, which would steer Lee northward east of the Bahamas. Interesting that the 10-day EC point in the 00Z run was 33N/71W. The 12Z run has it at 32.2N/69.5W at day 10. That's over 5 deg farther east in the latest run. GFS shifted a bit east as well. It may be a very large TS/H as it passes NW of Bermuda next Thu/Fri, though. Beyond 7 days, it hits a big patch of cool water churned up by Idalia last week. Temps 25C WSW of Bermuda. Could peak at 135-140 kts in a couple days, though. No impacts on NE Caribbean, just too far north of the islands.

[wxman57]

I am confident Lee will not be coming to Florida. The model consensus is a strong recurve well east of us. Consider getting out to enjoy the nice weather with lower humidities, nice change and feels somewhat like fall. Maybe Lee will bring us some nice cool NE winds similar to what Idalia brought when she was out in the Atlantic.

It's a cool 98 deg here in Houston. That's 10 deg colder than last week at this time. BRRRR!

[Hurricaneman]

Here are my percentages for landfall or out to sea

Florida: 1%
SE Coast. 3%
OBX 6%
Long Island/New England: 35%
Atlantic Canada: 45%
Fish 8%
Bermuda 2%

These numbers could change throughout the coming days so stay tuned to Lee as much can change in the next week or so

[wxman57]

Here are my percentages for landfall or out to sea

Florida: 1%
SE Coast. 3%
OBX 6%
Long Island/New England: 35%
Atlantic Canada: 45%
Fish 8%
Bermuda 2%

These numbers could change throughout the coming days so stay tuned to Lee as much can change in the next week or so

Those percentages don't look bad. Maybe <1% for Florida and a higher Atlantic Canada percentage with a lower southern New England percentage. Fish maybe 0.2% - it's not missing all land areas.

[Sciencerocks]

[mantis83]

Here are my percentages for landfall or out to sea

Florida: 1%
SE Coast. 3%
OBX 6%
Long Island/New England: 35%
Atlantic Canada: 45%
Fish 8%
Bermuda 2%

These numbers could change throughout the coming days so stay tuned to Lee as much can change in the next week or so

Fish: 80%
Atlantic Canada: 19%
Bermuda 1%
lets see........

[Nimbus]

Video from Levi Cowan.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1699462487966638140

Starting to get a slightly shear displaced CDO on visible. The table showing 30% chance of tropical storm winds reaching the northernmost Leeward islands is probably down to 25% already.

[Hurrilurker]

Lots of pink starting to pop up on IR, won't be long now.

[Sciencerocks]

[RevanTheJedi96]

Here are my percentages for landfall or out to sea

Florida: 1%
SE Coast. 3%
OBX 6%
Long Island/New England: 35%
Atlantic Canada: 45%
Fish 8%
Bermuda 2%

These numbers could change throughout the coming days so stay tuned to Lee as much can change in the next week or so

Florida: 3%
SE Coast. 7%
OBX 10%
Long Island/New England: 20%
Atlantic Canada: 30%
Fish 20%
Bermuda 10%

Those are mine

[wxman57]

A forecast of "fish" would mean no impact to Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. That's quite unlikely. No model currently indicates a track east of Newfoundland. Fish chances are slim.

[RevanTheJedi96]

A forecast of "fish" would mean no impact to Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. That's quite unlikely. No model currently indicates a track east of Newfoundland. Fish chances are slim.

There is still a lot of room for error on the factors that will steer Lee. A more southern landfall into Southeast/Midatlantic, a Bermuda hit or OTS are still well within play.

[CrazyC83]

A forecast of "fish" would mean no impact to Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. That's quite unlikely. No model currently indicates a track east of Newfoundland. Fish chances are slim.

Even if it were to miss them, it would hit Bermuda. There's little chance Lee goes east of Bermuda.

[RevanTheJedi96]

A forecast of "fish" would mean no impact to Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. That's quite unlikely. No model currently indicates a track east of Newfoundland. Fish chances are slim.

Even if it were to miss them, it would hit Bermuda. There's little chance Lee goes east of Bermuda.

Not necessarily. Could squeeze through the gap.

[eastcoastFL]

A forecast of "fish" would mean no impact to Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. That's quite unlikely. No model currently indicates a track east of Newfoundland. Fish chances are slim.

Even if it were to miss them, it would hit Bermuda. There's little chance Lee goes east of Bermuda.

Not necessarily. Could squeeze through the gap.

The gap would be west of Bermuda

[RevanTheJedi96]

Even if it were to miss them, it would hit Bermuda. There's little chance Lee goes east of Bermuda.

Not necessarily. Could squeeze through the gap.

The gap would be west of Bermuda

Correct. I was stating that Lee could go west of Bermuda and still miss it. Bermuda is a tough place to directly hit.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE
BY EARLY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 46.4W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.