ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

29.65 mb at the buoy
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[rigbyrigz]

oh Buoy!

[GCANE]

Appears GFS is more positively tilting the trof compared to previous run.
More mid-level moisture on the storm's west flank.
Riding in more of the trof's wave break which is less shear.

Also, will be pulling more of the high CAPE air in from the west.
Currently at 7000 over a large area - pure nitro.
Add to it, tracking over the Loop Current.

Vorts are already stacked.
Hurricane models are becoming more believable.

[weeniepatrol]

The very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico should support at least gradual strengthening during
the next few days, tempered by moderate shear from a flat upper-
level trough. However, this trough is forecast to amplify over the
western Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday, which causes the shear to
decrease near the cyclone in that time frame. There's a notable
risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the
record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is
highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC
forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model
consensus, and could be too low. I'm reluctant to make any big
changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the
upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are
reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the
system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida.

[Teban54]

:eek:

The very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico should support at least gradual strengthening during
the next few days, tempered by moderate shear from a flat upper-
level trough. However, this trough is forecast to amplify over the
western Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday, which causes the shear to
decrease near the cyclone in that time frame. There's a notable
risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the
record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is
highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC
forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model
consensus, and could be too low. I'm reluctant to make any big
changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the
upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are
reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the
system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida.

The new 80 kt (high-end Cat 1) peak forecast could still be too low... Wow.

[jlauderdal]

:eek:

The very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico should support at least gradual strengthening during
the next few days, tempered by moderate shear from a flat upper-
level trough. However, this trough is forecast to amplify over the
western Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday, which causes the shear to
decrease near the cyclone in that time frame. There's a notable
risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the
record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is
highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC
forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model
consensus, and could be too low. I'm reluctant to make any big
changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the
upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are
reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the
system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida.

The new 80 kt (high-end Cat 1) peak forecast could still be too low... Wow.

A major is looking more likely than not, a few days ago we were looking at a ts/td....intensity forecasting still a mystery. I will buy into the track once we see real movement towards the gulf. Panhandle, big bend down to tampa, i would fuel up this morning, too many people will be focusing on the line for this one, bad idea.

[GCANE]

Hopefully there will be some EWRCs along the way.
Very likely in the mid GOM

[Keldeo1997]

Hopefully there will be some EWRCs along the way.
Very likely in the mid GOM

That's not really the best thing either. Will make an already bad surge even worse.

[redingtonbeach]

The day when the NHC says a slap in the face may instead turn into a beating with a baseball bat.

[Teban54]

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/vZZsPXVq/goes16-ir-10-L-202308270702.gif

IR weenies wouldnt be real excited about that but of course that doesn't tell the whole story. We get recon so let's see what is going on underneath those cool colors.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy in the air

[Beef Stew]

Pretty soon we'll have an idea what's going on "under the hood", so to speak but I'm thinking we'll be seeing Idalia once recon arrives...

[kevin]

I have a bad feeling about this one similar to the early stages of Michael and Ian. I hope it doesn't become nearly as bad as those, but late August GOM trouble is always scary. Next few days with Franklin and future Idalia will be busy days on Storm2k, peak season has started.

[GCANE]

Looks like Miss Piggy having its usual Comm issues

[jlauderdal]

Looks like Miss Piggy having its usual Comm issues

All year to get this stuff working correctly, recon issues are too common.

[Blown Away]

Looks like Miss Piggy having its usual Comm issues

GCANE, do you think the broad COC is consolidating a bit SE from the 06z position?

[Poonwalker]

didnt expect to see tampa out of the cone already. interesting

The way stronger storms jog east on the last day is not good news for Tampa. (Charley, Irma, Ian)

[GCANE]

Looks like Miss Piggy having its usual Comm issues

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/9MCCMKpY/goes16-vis-swir-10-L-202308270917.gif [/url]

GCANE, do you think the broad COC is consolidating a bit SE from the 06z position?

Definitely, maybe a little more than just a bit

[GCANE]

Looks like Miss Piggy having its usual Comm issues

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/9MCCMKpY/goes16-vis-swir-10-L-202308270917.gif [/url]

GCANE, do you think the broad COC is consolidating a bit SE from the 06z position?

Definitely, maybe a little more than just a bit

And way off the forecast track
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... Table.html