ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

New peak intensity up to 70kt.

72H 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

Uhhh, this is TD 10 and not Hurricane Franklin?

I'm not trying to be rude or anything.

Is the forecast of 10. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 7#p3037047

[ScottNAtlanta]

When morning comes we will see a CDO and be left guessing where this thing is. Radar and flight data should help though. I’ll be getting supplies tomorrow. Those water temps support RI like the Hafs is showing. When will they be doing flights and sampling the environment?

I believe they go out at 6am

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just an FYI...on the satellite page on Tropical Tidbits there are 2 TD 10's
There is a TD 10 in the EPAC too...kept looking at it thinking...that doesn't look right

[Iceresistance]

New peak intensity up to 70kt.

72H 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

Uhhh, this is TD 10 and not Hurricane Franklin?

I'm not trying to be rude or anything.

Is the forecast of 10. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 7#p3037047

Oh, I am very sorry about that, I read it wrong.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

NHC has TD10 bottoming out at 20.9N, sure does appear to be lower than that now?

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1695661444161802466

[Blown Away]

1:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 27
Location: 20.7°N 86.8°W
Moving: SW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Wow, already .2 south of NHC track moving SW at 5 and not stationary. Not sure models picked up this much of a drop in latitude.

[BobHarlem]

It did go south a good distance, 2am coordinates are 20.7N (from 21.1N at 11pm). This and Franklin have been off (Franklin is further west than it should have been now)

[Blown Away]

It did go south a good distance, 2am coordinates are 20.7N (from 21.1N at 11pm). This and Franklin have been off (Franklin is further west than it should have been now)

Franklin more W erodes ridge and allows TD10 more E or does ridge build and push TD10 farther W??

[rigbyrigz]

With sad memories still from Michael (Mexico Beach), would be helpful news for Florida Big Bend and West Coast if it went far enough West into Yucatan to fall apart miserably. (I-name too hard to pronounce anyway).

[LarryWx]

It did go south a good distance, 2am coordinates are 20.7N (from 21.1N at 11pm). This and Franklin have been off (Franklin is further west than it should have been now)

Franklin more W erodes ridge and allows TD10 more E or does ridge build and push TD10 farther W??

Based on model runs the last few days, it appears the further west Franklin, the further NW TD10 in general.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1695692765235904576

[canebeard]

It's acting more like an October disturbance in the W. Carib. that just hangs around for a few days before moving N.

Anyone thinking of chasing this thing in the big bend area (if it goes there): make sure to bring a life vest and a snorkel. Even the non-tropical March 1993 super-storm drowned 13 people in the poorly (or late)-forecasted surge that came ashore.

[imgur][/imgur]

[LandoWill]

didnt expect to see tampa out of the cone already. interesting

[Hurrilurker]

The more it lingers south, the worse it could be for landfall. More time to get structured before the run north.

[GCANE]

High-helicity tower cyclonically rotating just south of the Yucatan channel.
Looks compact.
Gong to be very interesting to see what recon finds.

[REDHurricane]

The more it lingers south, the worse it could be for landfall. More time to get structured before the run north.

Yep, I'm concerned that this counterclockwise loop over the next day or two will only allow Idalia to rev itself all the way up before making its approach to Florida, given that it can stay over water the whole time (pretty likely at this point) -- if everything lines up perfectly with the atmospheric environment then this could end up a true monster of a storm

[GCANE]

Latest GFS has a big jump in intensification before landfall.
Some hurricane models look insane.

[Extratropical94]

AL, 10, 2023082706, , BEST, 0, 205N, 868W, 30, 1001, TD

Pressure falling