ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Recon isn’t supporting a near-hurricane intensity. Looks to have weakened more than I thought, down to 50-55 kt and 1003-1004 mbar.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1671866628685074432

[abajan]

Currently windy at my location in the southwest of the island but not alarmingly so. Basically just a pleasantly breezy morning, especially in light of the oppressively hot weather we've recently been experiencing. However, I've seen a report from a higher location, near the center of the island, about a tree felled by what I presume to be much stronger winds. While I'm not at sea level, there's a ridge 100 yards or so to my north which helps shelter my house from the full effects of any winds coming from that general direction. However, I imagine it'll be a different story when they start blowing from the southeast sometime early tomorrow morning.

[TheAustinMan]

Bret's low level circulation appears to have slipped out of the main convective mass. You can see it pretty easily in the below satellite image composite (where low-level clouds appear blue-green in this enhancement due to the dominance of water droplets as opposed to ice particles [further details about this enhancement here.]). Convection may reinitiate near the center of circulation, but with shear on the rise, the likelihood of some sort of CDO/proto-CDO developing like we saw last night are probably pretty low, and models are in decent consensus of Bret's structure remaining a classically sheared one, particularly once it makes it through the Lesser Antilles.

Day Cloud Phase GOES-16 imagery. Source: College of DuPage

[wxman57]

Definitely weakening now. Recon found another center SW of the convection.

[wxman57]

Currently windy at my location in the southwest of the island but not alarmingly so. Basically just a pleasantly breezy morning, especially in light of the oppressively hot weather we've recently been experiencing. However, I've seen a report from a higher location, near the center of the island, about a tree felled by what I presume to be much stronger winds. While I'm not at sea level, there's a ridge 100 yards or so to my north which helps shelter my house from the full effects of any winds coming from that general direction. However, I imagine it'll be a different story when they start blowing from the southeast sometime early tomorrow morning.

Any wind from Bret has not reached Barbados yet.

[tolakram]

Floater over Bret again, for now. More than one circulation?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-natcolor-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Sanibel]

You would think the June Caribbean would do a number on it...

(Off-Topic) The insurance company came up way short after all so we are still fighting for them to legally do what our policy and Florida law requires...

[abajan]

Could someone with connections to the NHC kindly inform them that the Leeward Islands are just a part of the Lesser Antilles? Their 5 AM and 8 AM advisories both state that Bret is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands later today and tonight, when they actually meant the Lesser Antilles. I doubt any of the Leeward Islands will get much foul weather from Bret.

[cycloneye]

Shear is increasing causing the center to get away from convection.

[Kingarabian]

To be honest it did a lot better than I expected. Even if it didn't become a hurricane. It was basically sheared its entire life.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Could someone with connections to the NHC kindly inform them that the Leeward Islands are just a part of the Lesser Antilles? Their 5 AM and 8 AM advisories both state that Bret is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands later today and tonight, when they actually meant the Lesser Antilles. I doubt any of the Leeward Islands will get much foul weather from Bret.

Do you think it necessary for Barbados to shut down this afternoon?

[RT23]

Could someone with connections to the NHC kindly inform them that the Leeward Islands are just a part of the Lesser Antilles? Their 5 AM and 8 AM advisories both state that Bret is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands later today and tonight, when they actually meant the Lesser Antilles. I doubt any of the Leeward Islands will get much foul weather from Bret.

Do you think it necessary for Barbados to shut down this afternoon?

So Far it is only school closures, however it appears to be a slight SW shift so will pass closer than was expected. Lets us see what this system will bring in the next few hours.

[wxman57]

Could someone with connections to the NHC kindly inform them that the Leeward Islands are just a part of the Lesser Antilles? Their 5 AM and 8 AM advisories both state that Bret is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands later today and tonight, when they actually meant the Lesser Antilles. I doubt any of the Leeward Islands will get much foul weather from Bret.

Do you think it necessary for Barbados to shut down this afternoon?

So Far it is only school closures, however it appears to be a slight SW shift so will pass closer than was expected. Lets us see what this system will bring in the next few hours.

Recon is finding very light wind southwest of Bret's center, where Barbados will be this afternoon. Once it passes, there could be some 25-35 mph SE wind and a few squalls in its wake tonight.

[abajan]

Currently windy at my location in the southwest of the island but not alarmingly so. Basically just a pleasantly breezy morning, especially in light of the oppressively hot weather we've recently been experiencing. However, I've seen a report from a higher location, near the center of the island, about a tree felled by what I presume to be much stronger winds. While I'm not at sea level, there's a ridge 100 yards or so to my north which helps shelter my house from the full effects of any winds coming from that general direction. However, I imagine it'll be a different story when they start blowing from the southeast sometime early tomorrow morning.

Any wind from Bret has not reached Barbados yet.

Funny thing is, the winds here have lessened considerably since I posted that. They just feel like regular breezes now. I think Bret's trolling me.

[Nuno]

We need to stop focusing on just wind impacts here and think of the massive amounts of rainfall that recon was picking up in this storm. These islands are mountainous, even if its "just" 60-70" mph gusts, people will feel this in higher elevations, and the rainfall has the potential to be dangerous. The rule with weather is better safe than sorry and people should follow this even with a tropical storm.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Has the relocated southwestern center been reflected in the newest information from the nhc

[wxman57]

Has the relocated southwestern center been reflected in the newest information from the nhc

No, that was just a little eddy. NHC is feeling generous in keeping wind at 60 kts. But then, the NHC doesn't like to indicate weakening as a storm is approaching land. They need to keep people alert to any unexpected strengthening, though that seems unlikely in this case. Bret is clearly weakening.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

We need to stop focusing on just wind impacts here and think of the massive amounts of rainfall that recon was picking up in this storm. These islands are mountainous, even if its "just" 60-70" mph gusts, people will feel this in higher elevations, and the rainfall has the potential to be dangerous. The rule with weather is better safe than sorry and people should follow this even with a tropical storm.

I agree tropical storm Kirk caused severed flooding back in 2018 b there was no wind damage. I fear people won’t take it seriously until something bad happens due to flooding

[wxman57]

We need to stop focusing on just wind impacts here and think of the massive amounts of rainfall that recon was picking up in this storm. These islands are mountainous, even if its "just" 60-70" mph gusts, people will feel this in higher elevations, and the rainfall has the potential to be dangerous. The rule with weather is better safe than sorry and people should follow this even with a tropical storm.

We're not expecting a massive amount of rain, as Bret will be encountering plenty of dry air as it nears the islands. Here's the forecast from the 06Z Euro. It indicates some mountainous areas could see 4-6 inches. Very little indicated for Barbados, by the way. Of course, this is just one model's forecast.